Sistem Peramalan Jumlah Penjualan Menggunakan Metode Moving Average Pada Rumah Jilbab Zaky

Abstract

The increasing number of businesses makes everyone compete to be the best to get costumers. When a business owner can't take the advantage of information technology, then there is a lot of information will be wasted. The sales report which still made manually will bring difficulty to the owner seeing the development of business, consequently there are possibility that the owner will make a wrong decisions, especially about addition or reduction of inventory. The purpose of this research was to utilize any information as much as possible by using management information system. This management information system would convert the data to be easily to understood such as by using graphics. Management information system was come with forecasting to help users, especially for managers in decision making. The method that was used to forecast the management information system is the moving average, one of the time series methods in forecasting. The use of forecasting with the moving average method was to predict the number of sales that would occur in the months to come. The result of the research that has been done was a management information system that can be used by Zaky's Hijab. The system that was created also could forecast the next number of sales based on the existing category. Not all data can be utilized as forecasting calculation data using moving averages.

Peramalan Penjualan Pupuk Menggunakan Metode Trend Moment

“…Forecasting adalah suatu kegiatan untuk meramalkan keadaan di masa mendatang melalui pengujian di masa lalu. Metode forecasting ini membantu pemilik untuk menentukan jumlah penjulan barang akan datang, sehingga pemilik lebih mudah untuk memutuskan melakukan penambahan atau pengurangan stok barang [14] [15]. Sedang metode Trend Moment adalah metode yang digunakan untuk membantu dalam melakukan peramalan penjualan untuk penjualan pada bulan dan tahun berikutnya [16].…”

Optimasi Analisis Peramalan dengan Metode Regresi Weighted Moving Average

“…Peramalan jangka menengah biasanya digunakan untuk jangka waktu sekitar 1-2 tahun ke depan, sedangkan peramalan jangka panjang dapat digunakan untuk meramalkan beberapa tahun kedepan. Umumnya, peramalan menggunakan metode time series yang menggunakan data history (data masa lalu) untuk menganalisis pola, dan menggunakan data dan pola yang diperoleh, untuk memprediksikan data untuk masa mendatang [2].…”

“…Tujuan utama dari penggunaan metode Moving Average sendiri ialah mengurangi atau menghilangkan acakan (randomness) pada sebuah deret waktu dengan cara mengambil ratarata dari beberapa data sehingga kemungkinan terjadinya kesalahan positif atau negatif dapat dikeluarkan atau dihilangkan. [2] Weighted Moving Average atau yang biasa di sebut dengan WMA merupakan salah satu pendekatan yang menggunakan koefisien bobot untuk melihat tren dari pola data history. Metode WMA dinilai lebih responsif terhadap perubahan, karena bobot dari masing-masing data berbeda.…”

Sales Analysis Using the Forecasting Method

“…The use of this forecasting method helps the owner to determine the number of sales items that will come, so that the owner is easier to decide on adding or reducing stock of goods. [1] II. LITERATURE Forecasting can be interpreted as a systematic approach used to analyze the pattern of historical sales data to project future demand as a basis for making long-term company planning and as a consideration for several decisions related to capacity requirements, inventory.…”