SIR model for propagation of COVID-19 in the Paraíba's State (Brazil)

Abstract

This work aims to apply the SIR-type compartmental model (Susceptible - Infected - Removed) in the evolution of Covid-19 in Paraíba's State and Campina Grande City. For that, the parameters of the model were considered to be variable during time evolution, within an appropriate range. The system of differential equations was solved numerically using the Euler method. The parameters were obtained by adjusting the model to the infected data provided by the Paraíba Health Department. According to the results obtained, the model describes the infected population well. There was a reduction in the effective reproduction number in Paraíba and the town of Campina Grande. It is noteworthy that understanding the dynamics of infection transmission and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial to assess the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas. The model can also be applied to describe epidemic dynamics in other regions and countries.