Singular Vector Structure and Evolution of a Recurving Tropical Cyclone

Kim, Hyun Mee; Jung, Byoung-Joo

doi:10.1175/2008mwr2643.1

Cited by 38 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…6 Normalized average, vertically integrated TE of TESVs (color shaded) and 500 hPa geopotential height (thin contour; interval of 30 gpm) with the center of the TC (X) at the initial (a-d) and final times (e-h): a, e the first TESV; b, f the second TESV; c, and g the third TESV; and d, h the composite TESV from the first to third with the average TC tracks for 48 h. At the initial time, the TESV energy of all the groups was located around the TC centers and the troughs. In group 1, the maximum was on the trough, with the second largest value around the TC center (approximately 300-700 km from the TC center), similar to the previous studies (Kim and Jung 2009a;Peng and Reynolds 2006;Reynolds et al 2009;and Wu et al 2009b). In group 2, the patterns of TESV energy were similar to group 1, with a more prominent maximum on the trough than around the TC center.…”

Section: Horizontal Structuressupporting

confidence: 84%

“…As in Kim and Jung (2009a, b) and Kim et al (2011a), this study used the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), together with the MM5 adjoint modeling system (Zou et al 1997) and a Lanczos algorithm, to calculate TESVs. The model domain included 70 9 60 horizontal grids (centered at 36°N, 125°E), with a 100-km horizontal resolution and 14 evenly spaced sigma levels in the vertical, from the surface to 50 hPa.…”

Section: Model and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The observational regions detected by adaptive observation strategies are called sensitive regions because the observations in those regions may have a large influence on enhancing weather forecasts (Kim et al 2004a). Singular vectors (SVs) have been used to detect regions of high sensitivity to small perturbations for the purpose of making adaptive observations (Palmer et al 1998;Buizza and Montani 1999;Gelaro et al 1999;Montani et al 1999;Reynolds 2005, 2006;Kim and Jung 2009a, b) because they are the fastest growing perturbations during a specified time period (i.e., the optimization interval) for a given norm and basic state (Kim and Morgan 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One is a case study and the other is a statistical or composite analysis applied to many cases. As a case study, Kim and Jung (2009a) evaluated the SV sensitivities near a TC center and at midlatitude and interpreted the dynamical interactions between the recurving TC and the mid-latitude system. In addition, Kim and Jung (2009b) investigated the effects of moist physics and norm on SV structures of Typhoon Usagi (0705).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Statistical distributions of singular vectors for tropical cyclones affecting Korea over a 10-year period

Park

Kim

Lee

et al. 2013

Meteorol Atmos Phys

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To investigate the statistical sensitivity distributions of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts over the Korean Peninsula, total energy (TE) singular vectors (SVs) were calculated and evaluated over a 10-year period. TESVs were calculated using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its tangent linear and adjoint models with a Lanczos algorithm over a 48-h period. Chosen cases were 21 TCs that affected the Korean Peninsula among 230 TCs that were generated in the western North Pacific from 2001 to 2010. Sensitive regions indicated by TESVs were mainly located near mid-latitude troughs and TC centers but varied depending on TC track and environmental conditions such as subtropical high and mid-latitude trough. The cases were classified into three groups by clustering TC tracks based on the finite mixture model. The two groups that passed through the western and southern sea of the Korean Peninsula had maximally sensitive regions in the mid-latitude trough and largely sensitive regions around the TC center, while the other group that passed straight through the eastern sea of the Korean Peninsula had maximally sensitive regions near the northeastern region of the TC center. Vertically, the former two clustered groups had the westerly tilted TESVs and potential vorticity structures under the mid-latitude troughs at the initial time, indicating the TCs were in a baroclinic environment. Conversely, the straight-moving TCs were not in a baroclinic environment. Based on the results in the present study, the TCs moving toward a fixed verification region over the Korean Peninsula have different sensitivity regions and structures according to their moving tracks and characteristic environmental conditions, which may provide guidance for targeted observations of TCs affecting the Korean Peninsula.

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Section: Horizontal Structuressupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Model and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Statistical distributions of singular vectors for tropical cyclones affecting Korea over a 10-year period

Park

Kim

Lee

et al. 2013

Meteorol Atmos Phys

Self Cite

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“…Until recently, many studies used adaptive observation strategies to identify sensitive regions for adaptively observing extratropical or tropical cyclones (e.g. Reynolds, 2005, 2006;Kim and Jung, 2006;Majumdar et al, 2006;Wu et al, 2007;Kim et al, 2008aKim et al, , 2011Kim and Jung, 2009a, b;Jung et al, 2010;Park et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical adjoint sensitivity distributions of meteorological forecast errors of Asian dust transport events in Korea

Kim¹,

Kay²,

Yang³

et al. 2013

Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology

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A B S T R A C TThe sensitivities of meteorological forecast errors associated with Asian dust transport events to changes in the initial state were evaluated for 46 occurrences that affected the Korean Peninsula from 2005 to 2010. Adjoint-based sensitivities were used to determine these sensitivities. Sensitive regions were located primarily over two regions upstream from the Korean Peninsula: the northern source region, including areas of Mongolia and northern China, and the Tibetan Plateau. Depending on transport trajectories, month, and year, the sensitive regions were located over either the northern source regions or the Tibetan Plateau. That is, the Asian dust forecast in Korea was found to be sensitive to the meteorological fields over the northern source regions, but also those over the Tibetan Plateau even though the latter is not a dust source region or an upstream area according to the transport trajectories. Employing additional observations at existing instrumentation sites or developing new observational sites in both sensitive regions could be beneficial in reducing the atmospheric circulation forecast errors in East Asia, thus improving the accuracy of transport forecasts of Asian dust events affecting the Korean Peninsula.

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Characteristics of Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter adaptive sampling guidance for tropical cyclones

Majumdar

Chen

2011

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) is one candidate strategy for targeting observations around tropical cyclones. The characteristics of target areas identified by a revised version of the ETKF are investigated using the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble. In order to emphasize sensitivity to the environmental flow, the axisymmetric circulation associated with the tropical cyclone is removed from each ensemble member. The guidance is found to differ markedly from the ensemble variance, and the guidance products based on ensembles from different operational centres often disagree. For the pre-recurvature stage of typhoon Sinlaku (2008), the targets correspond to asymmetries close to the typhoon, neighbouring features including the adjacent subtropical ridge and a nearby upperlevel trough, and far-field features including the monsoon trough and areas of flow convergence. During and after recurvature, targets exist in the midlatitude jet upstream and downstream of the typhoon. The midlatitude targets are discernible for forecasts beyond 3 days. The sensitivity to hypothetical observations of wind is more pronounced than those of temperature or specific humidity. The targets based on upper-level observations correspond to the outflow of the tropical cyclone and nearby and remote jets, while the lower-level targets correspond to confluent flow near the cyclone. Multiple remote targets are evident, particularly for longer forecast times, and some of these may be spurious. When ensemble forecasts initialized at different times are used for the same case, the characteristics of the guidance differ, although not dramatically. Future priorities include the evaluation of the effects of assimilating observations sampled in target areas versus those in non-target areas, and the improvement of the data assimilation methodology assumed in the ETKF.

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Singular Vector Structure and Evolution of a Recurving Tropical Cyclone

Cited by 38 publications

References 42 publications

Statistical distributions of singular vectors for tropical cyclones affecting Korea over a 10-year period

Statistical distributions of singular vectors for tropical cyclones affecting Korea over a 10-year period

Statistical adjoint sensitivity distributions of meteorological forecast errors of Asian dust transport events in Korea

Characteristics of Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter adaptive sampling guidance for tropical cyclones

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