Simulations of the Water Food Energy Nexus for policy driven intervention

Teitelbaum, Y.; Yakirevich, A.; Gross, Amit; Sorek, S.

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04767

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…McGrane et al (2018) also discuss the role of input-output approaches as well as life cycle analysis as nexus-relevant quantitative tools. A theory-based framing of FEWS extending to social welfare considerations through a lumped water-energy-food consumption index has also been demonstrated (Teitelbaum et al, 2020). Decision-support systems can be used to frame FEWS research (Wolfe et al, 2016) and generate scenarios and affiliated tradeoffs (Daher and Mohtar, 2015;Daher et al, 2017).…”

Section: The Need For Integrated Fews Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

The C-FEWS framework: Supporting studies of climate-induced extremes on food, energy, and water systems at the regional scale

Vörösmarty

Melillo

Wuebbles

et al. 2023

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Climate change continues to challenge food, energy, and water systems (FEWS) across the globe and will figure prominently in shaping future decisions on how best to manage this nexus. In turn, traditionally engineered and natural infrastructures jointly support and hence determine FEWS performance, their vulnerabilities, and their resilience in light of extreme climate events. We present here a research framework to advance the modeling, data integration, and assessment capabilities that support hypothesis-driven research on FEWS dynamics cast at the macro-regional scale. The framework was developed to support studies on climate-induced extremes on food, energy, and water systems (C-FEWS) and designed to identify and evaluate response options to extreme climate events in the context of managing traditionally engineered (TEI) and nature-based infrastructures (NBI). This paper presents our strategy for a first stage of research using the framework to analyze contemporary FEWS and their sensitivity to climate drivers shaped by historical conditions (1980–2019). We offer a description of the computational framework, working definitions of the climate extremes analyzed, and example configurations of numerical experiments aimed at evaluating the importance of individual and combined driving variables. Single and multiple factor experiments involving the historical time series enable two categories of outputs to be analyzed: the first involving biogeophysical entities (e.g., crop production, carbon sequestered, nutrient and thermal pollution loads) and the second reflecting a portfolio of services provided by the region’s TEI and NBI, evaluated in economic terms. The framework is exercised in a series of companion papers in this special issue that focus on the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States. Use of the C-FEWS framework to simulate historical conditions facilitates research to better identify existing FEWS linkages and how they function. The framework also enables a next stage of analysis to be pursued using future scenario pathways that will vary land use, technology deployments, regulatory objectives, and climate trends and extremes. It also supports a stakeholder engagement effort to co-design scenarios of interest beyond the research domain.

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Section: The Need For Integrated Fews Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

The C-FEWS framework: Supporting studies of climate-induced extremes on food, energy, and water systems at the regional scale

Vörösmarty

Melillo

Wuebbles

et al. 2023

Front. Environ. Sci.

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“…Quantitative interventions to rectify future WM imbalances, leading to sustainable optimal regulation, is achieved by solving WM balances subject to imposing source/sink terms over the nodal network. Each proceeding time step yields the nodal predicted WM load from which water allocation is decided, guiding the food and energy allocations [ 41 ].…”

Section: Storylinementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Detailed development appears in our previous manuscript [ 41 ]. Briefly, disregarding units, the W ( I ) F ( I ) E ( I ) components are assumed information ( I ( t )) time dependent and the WFE Volume reads U = W ( I ) F ( I ) E ( I ).…”

Section: Storylinementioning

confidence: 99%

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Governance using the water-food-energy nexus and human-factor measures

et al. 2022

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Household water food and energy (WFE) expenditures, reflect respective survival needs for which their resources and social welfare are inter-related. We developed a policy driven quantitative decision-making strategy (DMS) to address the domain geospatial entities’ (nodes or administrative districts) of the WFE nexus, assumed to be information linked across the domain nodal-network. As investment in one of the inter-dependent nexus components may cause unexpected shock to the others, we refer to the WFE normalized expenditures product (Volume) as representing the nexus holistic measure. Volume rate conforms to Boltzman entropy suggesting directed information from high to low Volume nodes. Our hypothesis of causality-driven directional information is exemplified by a sharp price increase in wheat and rice, for U.S. and Thailand respectively, that manifests its impact on the temporal trend of Israel’s administrative districts of the WFE expenditures. Welfare mass (WM) represents the node’s Volume combined with its income and population density. Formulation is suggested for the nodal-network WM temporal balance where each node is scaled by a human-factor (HF) for subjective attitude and a superimposed nodal source/sink term manifesting policy decision. Our management tool is based on two sequential governance processes: one starting with historical data mapping the mean temporal nodal Volumes to single out extremes, and the second is followed by WM balance simulation predicting nodal-network outcome of policy driven targeting. In view of the proof of concept by model simulations in in our previous research, here HF extends the model and attention is devoted to emphasize how the current developed decision-making approach categorically differs from existing nexus related methods. The first governance process is exemplified demonstrating illustrations for Israel’s districts. Findings show higher expenditures for water and lower for energy, and maps pointing to extremes in districts’ mean temporal Volume. Illustrations of domain surfaces for that period enable assessment of relative inclination trends of the normalized Water, Food and Energy directions continuum assembled from time stations, and evolution trends for each of the WFE components.

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