Simulations of human migration into North America are more sensitive to demography than choice of palaeoclimate model

Pilowsky, Julia; Manica, Andrea; Brown, Stuart C.; Rahbek, Carsten; Fordham, Damien

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110115

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 46 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The latter included 14 previously unpublished radiocarbon dates [25]. Models were coded in R v 4.2.0 using the package paleopop [26].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The population growth and expansion of Palaeolithic humans across Eurasia following the last glacial maximum (LGM, a period from 26.5 to 19 ka BP [ 38 ]) was modelled using a process-explicit climate-informed spatial genetic model (CISGeM) that accurately reconstructs global genetic patterns and arrival times of anatomically modern humans [ 39 ]. This model has previously been used to disentangle the impact of humans on megafauna over palaeo timescales [ 6 , 28 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Millennial processes of population decline, range contraction and near extinction of the European bison

Pilowsky,

Brown,

Llamas

et al. 2023

Proc. R. Soc. B.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

European bison ( Bison bonasus ) were widespread throughout Europe during the late Pleistocene. However, the contributions of environmental change and humans to their near extinction have never been resolved. Using process-explicit models, fossils and ancient DNA, we disentangle the combinations of threatening processes that drove population declines and regional extinctions of European bison through space and across time. We show that the population size of European bison declined abruptly at the termination of the Pleistocene in response to rapid environmental change, hunting by humans and their interaction. Human activities prevented populations of European bison from rebounding in the Holocene, despite improved environmental conditions. Hunting caused range loss in the north and east of its distribution, while land use change was responsible for losses in the west and south. Advances in hunting technologies from 1500 CE were needed to simulate low abundances observed in 1870 CE. While our findings show that humans were an important driver of the extinction of the European bison in the wild, vast areas of its range vanished during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition because of post-glacial environmental change. These areas of its former range have been climatically unsuitable for millennia and should not be considered in reintroduction efforts.

show abstract

“…The latter included 14 previously unpublished radiocarbon dates [25]. Models were coded in R v 4.2.0 using the package paleopop [26].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Millennial processes of population decline, range contraction and near extinction of the European bison

Pilowsky,

Brown,

Llamas

et al. 2023

Proc. R. Soc. B.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Theories of range shifts, population declines and extinctions are now being tested directly using historical and palaeo-reconstructions (Fordham et al, 2021(Fordham et al, , 2022, permitting inferences of how biodiversity is likely to respond to future environmental change (Fordham et al, 2020). However, reconstructing past demographic changes at landscape scales poses unique modelling challenges, including the reliance on indirect proxies to draw inferences about range collapses and the timing and location of extinction (Dietl et al, 2015); uncertainty in reconstructions of past climates (Rutherford et al, 2005) and human-driven environmental threats (Ellis et al, 2021;Pilowsky, Manica, et al, 2022); and a lack of information on the ecological lifestyles and traits of many species (Fordham et al, 2016). Some of these issues can be addressed, at least in part, using process-explicit models, particularly if they are combined with pattern-oriented modelling (POM) techniques (Box 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Range and extinction dynamics of the steppe bison in Siberia: A pattern‐oriented modelling approach

Pilowsky

Haythorne

Brown

et al. 2022

Global Ecol Biogeogr

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Aim: To determine the ecological processes and drivers of range collapse, population decline and eventual extinction of the steppe bison in Eurasia. Location: Siberia.Time period: Pleistocene and Holocene. Major taxa studied: Steppe bison (Bison priscus).Methods: We configured 110,000 spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) of climate-human-steppe bison interactions in Siberia, which we ran at generational time steps from 50,000 years before present. We used pattern-oriented modelling (POM) and fossil-based inferences of distribution and demographic change of steppe bison to identify which SEPMs adequately simulated important interactions between ecological processes and biological threats. These "best models" were then used to disentangle the mechanisms that were integral in the population decline and later extinction of the steppe bison in its last stronghold in Eurasia.Results: Our continuous reconstructions of the range and extinction dynamics of steppe bison were able to reconcile inferences of spatio-temporal occurrence and the timing and location of extinction in Siberia based on hundreds of radiocarbon-dated steppe bison fossils. We showed that simulating the ecological pathway to extinction

show abstract

Simulations of human migration into North America are more sensitive to demography than choice of palaeoclimate model

Cited by 2 publications

References 46 publications

Millennial processes of population decline, range contraction and near extinction of the European bison

Millennial processes of population decline, range contraction and near extinction of the European bison

Range and extinction dynamics of the steppe bison in Siberia: A pattern‐oriented modelling approach

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About