Simulations of Colorado Potato Beetle Development in Poland Based on Four Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

The simulations were conducted using actual data and virtual data. The actual data were recorded in the period of 1986-2005 at 16 localities representing 16 regions of Poland. The virtual data were obtained after transformation of the recorded data to reflect a temperature changes under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios according to giss_e2_r climate model. The model used in the study was based on scientific reports describing the influence of temperature on acceleration of the onset of egg laying and on successive stages of Colorado potato beetle as well as publications on the effects of photoperiod on the pest diapause. The study showed a growing threat to potato from Colorado potato beetles as a result of the temperature rise. The fastest development of the pest appeared in simulations under RCP8.5 scenario. Of 16 regions surveyed in the study, the southwestern part of Poland was found to be most threatened by Colorado potato beetle as a result of anticipated climate change.