Simulation tools for decision support to adaptive forest management in Europe

Abstract

In forest management there is a tendency towards measuring more cost-effective and simulating more. In this context the development of reliable, user friendly forest simulators has become economically relevant. The objective of this perspective paper is to highlight the recent trends in forest simulation and to identify the remaining challenges to make forest simulation a reliable tool for forest policy and management.Experiences with forest simulators for various purposes in different geographical contexts illustrate how the important challenges of forest decision support can be addressed through flexible customization for different end-user categories, offering spatially explicit approaches at the landscape scale, and integrating empirical and mechanistic models in hybrid and bayesian simulation approaches.Recent development trends in forest simulation for decision support are mainly related to the ever increasing calculation speed and capacity of computers, facilitating the development of robust tools with comfortable user interface and realistic functions and options. Another trend is the combination of simulation tools with optimization and choice algorithms fading away the difference between simulators and decision support systems.The remaining challenges are basically in the high expectations of stakeholders concerning the ability of simulators to predict a range of outcomes in terms of ecosystem services and sustainability indicators, as well as the quality of their outcome in terms of output credibility to stakeholders. Need for accepted and realistic model validation and verification methods preferably using empirical data is crucial in this matter.Key words: multi-objective forest planning; forest model; simulator; decision support system; climate change. ResumenHerramientas de simulación para el apoyo de toma de decisiones en la gestión forestal adaptativa en Europa En la planificación de la gestión forestal existe la tendencia a medir menos y similar más. En este contexto, el desarrollo de simuladores forestales es económicamente relevante para el gestor. El objetivo de este artículo es el de discutir y enfatizar tendencias en el ámbito de la simulación forestal e identificar retos importantes para que la simulación forestal sea una herramienta fiable en el proceso decisorio de la planificación forestal y en el de desarrollo de *

Assisting Sustainable Forest Management and Forest Policy Planning with the Sim4Tree Decision Support System

“…However, the consideration of multiple ecological, economic and social objectives [1] often implies trade-offs and conflicts [9], along with complex interactions on various spatial and temporal scales [10]. The more diverse the demands on forest ecosystem services, the more complex and challenging planning and decision making is [8,11]. Simultaneously, sustainable forest management goes hand in hand with a demand for the increased involvement of various stakeholders (land owners, forest managers, land managers, forest industry, forest-dependent communities, policy makers) and the general public in the planning and decision making process [12][13][14].…”

“…These computer-based tools typically combine a simulator, which calculates the outcome of management scenarios using one or several models, with a user interface, a database management system and an optimization algorithm [11]. They may be coupled to a geographic information system (GIS), include visualization technology and allow for stakeholder preferences.…”

“…These systems were mainly used by scientific researchers themselves for case studies and demonstrations [18]. Later on, driven by the increasing demand for integration and participation along with rapid advances in computing hardware and software systems, there was a clear trend towards developing fewer, yet more general-purpose DSS, with a broader scope, more functionalities (e.g., 3D-visualization, optimization and choice algorithms), a modular architecture with linkages to other systems (e.g., GIS tools, web services), larger stakeholder involvement and increasing user-friendliness [10,11,18]. This evolution is not at an end, and there still exists a need for further improvement and tailoring of DSS [16].…”

“…Secondly, there is a need for more robust outputs, which account for the risks and uncertainties in forest management and policy, related to the increasing exposure of European forests to climate change and natural disturbances (heat waves, drought, fire, storm, flooding, biotic risks) [27][28][29] or to the future development of the wood market and other human needs. In this context, there is a need to generate outputs that consider factors of resilience, such as the genetic variation between provenances [30,31] and the occurrence of mixed and uneven-aged stands within the forest [11]. Lastly, the success of approaches for participatory decision making has been limited so far [13,15].…”

Extending a physiological forest growth model by an observation-based tree competition module improves spatial representation of diameter growth

“…Simulation models play an increasingly important role as supporting instruments for the decision maker in his task to provide multifunctional sustainability (Muys et al 2010). The most common type of model in practice is the observation-based individual tree management model (Pretzsch et al 2008).…”