Simulation Support to Wargaming for Tactical Operations Planning

Brathen, Karsten; Seehuus, Rikke Amilde; Mevassvik, Ole Martin

doi:10.1002/9781119604815.ch9

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…The results of wartime resource requirement analysis (WRRA) are used as the basis for writing various war documents related to inventory requirements and military force, such as the joint strategic objective plan (JSOP) and oil war stockpile documents, according to the directive of the Korea Ministry of Defense. Although war-game simulation can provide relatively reliable results (De Lima Filho et al, 2022;Mittal & Davidson, 2020;Turnitsa, Blais, & Tolk, 2021), it is impossible to provide the results of judging the expected loss after simulating the war-game within a short period of time (e.g., Brathen, Seehuus, & Mevassvik, 2021;Hujer, Kratky, & Farlik, 2020).…”

Section: ⅰ Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of standard loss analysis model using big data

Lee¹,

Lim²,

Lee³

et al. 2022

J. Adv. Mil. Stud.

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The Republic of Korea Army conducts simulations during peacetime using ground operation resource requirements analysis model (GORRAM) to determine potential losses when at war based on the latest operation plan. Although war-game simulation can yield reliable results, it takes considerable amount of time and effort to build a database and generate scenarios. Therefore, a study is required to supplement the detailed war-game simulation method to quickly determine expected losses. Using data built-in GORRAM, we tested the significance of four factors using beta regression analysis. While multiple regression is most commonly used to model the causality, beta regression is a powerful method for modeling response variables in the (0,1) range, such as the loss ratio. We verified that three factors, namely ‘topography’, ‘operational posture’, and ‘friend/foe power ratio’ were related to loss. This study proposes a new method for calculating the expected loss in real-time, overcoming a limitation of existing war-game simulation methods.

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