Simulation of Urban Sprawl by Comparison Cellular Automata-Markov and ANN

Abstract

A correctly obtained Land-use/land-cover (LULC) prediction map is essential to under-standing and assessing future patterns. In the study, the LULC map of Urmia/Iran in 2030 was produced using two different prediction methods CA-Markov and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). In general, the study followed a methodology consisting of three steps. In the first steps, Landsat satellite images acquired in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were classified with maximum likelihood algorithm and LULC maps were prepared for each year. In the second stage, to investigate the LULC prediction methods' validation (CA-Markov and ANN) the LULC prediction map of 2020 was produced using the LULC map of 2000 and 2010; In this step, the predicted LULC map of 2020 and the actual LULC map of 2020 were evaluated by correctness, completeness and quality indexes. Finally, The LULC map for 2030 was prepared using all two algorithms and the change map was extracted. The results show that the area of soil and vegetation decreased, and built-up regions increased during the research period. The methods validation results show that the two algorithms are much closer to each other. Nevertheless, in general, ANN has the highest completeness (96.21%) and quality (93.8%) and CA-Markov the most correctness (96.47). This study shows that the CA-Markov algorithm is most successful in predicting the future that had larger areas and a higher percentage in the region (urban and vegetation cover) and the ANN algorithm in predicting phenomena that had smaller levels with fewer percentages (soil and rock).