Simulation of Urban Growth Boundary under the Guidance of Stock Development: A Case Study of Wuhan City

Abstract

The implementation of an urban growth boundary (UGB) can effectively control urban sprawl and promote efficient land use, which is crucial for future urban development. However, most of existing studies overlook the reuse of existing idle and inefficient land within the city in the delineation of UGBs. With China’s urban construction shifting from incremental development to stock development, this study focuses on Wuhan and presents a set of technical approaches for delineating UGBs with a stock development orientation. First, a built-up area composite index (POI&ISA) is constructed based on point of interest (POI) kernel density analysis and impervious surface index extraction to evaluate constructive levels in 2010 and 2020 and identify the urban vitality zone. Then, we combine the current land use status and control policies to divide the urban spatial development potential into five categories: urban vitality land, urban non-vitality land, other vitality land, other non-vitality land, and restricted development land. Finally, the PLUS model is applied in the analysis of the driving forces of land use change in Wuhan, simulating the UGBs in three stages of incremental development (2020–2030), incremental and stock development (2030–2040), and stock development (2040–2050). Finally, the PLUS model simulation projects the UGB areas to be 436.436 km2, 474.617 km2, and 520.396 km2 for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. The predicted timespan of urban development extends up to 30 years, serving as a reliable reference for Wuhan’s long-term and near-term planning.