Simulation of the West African monsoon onset using the HadGEM3-RA regional climate model

Diallo, Ismaïla; Bain, Caroline L.; Gaye, Amadou Thierno; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Niang, Coumba; Dieng, Modou; Graham, Richard

doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2219-0

Cited by 46 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 45 publications

(66 reference statements)

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“…The evaluation of the model results is performed for five investigation areas with different climatic characteristics, defined in a similar way than previous RCM simulations in West Africa [ Sylla et al , ; Diallo et al , ; Ibrahim et al , ; Panitz et al , ; Sanogo et al , ; Sylla et al , ] and studies aiming at the West African Monsoon and its mechanisms [ Hourdin et al , ; Browne and Sylla , ; Klein et al , ]: The regions SAH (Sahel), SUD (Sudan), GUI (Guinea), and Burkina (BUR) (Figure ) are located within a band from −10°W to 10°E and are characterized by differences in their hydroclimatic conditions, their terrain features, and their large spatiotemporal rainfall variability [ Sylla et al , ]. From the GUI (Guinea) zone to the SAH (Sahel), the length of the rainy season decreases from 10 to 2 months.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the COSMO‐CLM high‐resolution climate simulations over West Africa

et al. 2017

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The evaluation of a high‐resolution simulation at 0.11° (12 km) with the COnsortium for Small‐scale MOdelling in CLimate Mode (CCLM) regional climate model, applied over West Africa, is presented. This simulation is nested in a CCLM run at resolution of 0.44°, driven with boundary forcing data from the ERA‐Interim reanalysis, and covers the period from 1981 to 2010. The simulated temperature and precipitation are evaluated using three selected climate indices for temperature and eight indices for precipitation in five different regions against a new, daily precipitation climatology covering West Africa and against other state of the art climatologies. The obtained results indicate that CCLM is able to reproduce the observed major climate characteristics including the West African Monsoon within the range of comparable regional climate modeling evaluations studies, but substantial uncertainties remain, especially in the Sahel zone. The seasonal mean temperature bias for the rainy season from June to September ranges from −0.8°C to −1.1°C. The CCLM simulations also underestimate the observed precipitation with biases in precipitation reaching −10% in the high‐resolution and −20% in the low‐resolution model runs. CCLM extends the monsoon precipitation belt too far north, which results in an overestimation of precipitation in the Sahel zone of up to 60%. In the coastal zone, the precipitation is underestimated by up to −90%. These biases in precipitation amounts are associated with errors in the precipitation seasonality. The added value of the higher resolution of the nested run is reflected in a smaller bias in extreme precipitation statistics with respect to the reference data.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the COSMO‐CLM high‐resolution climate simulations over West Africa

et al. 2017

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“…Some circulation features are represented reasonably well, for example, the AEWs, but the relationship with precipitation is weak . Comparison of different model integrations [including regional model runs; Diallo et al (2014)] suggests that performance over West Africa is quite sensitive to changes in model configuration. Several recent versions of the MetUM have succeeded in reproducing the "jump" associated with monsoon onset: a distinct and rapid shift of the rainfall maximum from the Guinea Coast to approximately 11°N in early July (Graham 2014).…”

Section: Pan-africanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating Climate Models with an African Lens

James

Washington

Abiodun

et al. 2018

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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“…This can undermine people's productivity and health, thus negatively impacting well-being and possibly the countries' economy (Chen et al, 2017;Kjellstrom et al, 2009;Liang et al, 2011). West Africa spans different climate zones with contrasting seasonal cycles (Diallo et al, 2014;Sylla, Elguindi, et al, 2016); it is densely populated, and it includes many economies in transition. Therefore, it can be particularly vulnerable to changes in heat stress.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa

et al. 2018

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Heat and discomfort indices are applied to the multimodel ensemble mean of COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment-Africa regional climate model projections to investigate future changes in heat stress and the proportion of human population at risk under 1.5°C and 2°C global warming scenarios over West Africa. The results show that heat stress of category Extreme Caution is projected to extend spatially (up to 25%) over most of the Gulf of Guinea, Sahel, and Sahara desert areas, with different regional coverage during the various seasons. Similarly, the projected seasonal proportion of human population at discomfort substantially increases to more than 50% over most of the region. In particular, in June-August over the Sahel and the western Sahara desert, new areas (15% of West Africa) where most of the population is at risk emerge. This indicates that from 50% to almost everyone over most of the Sahel countries and part of the western Sahara desert is at risk of possible heat cramp, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke in future climate scenarios. These conditions become more frequent and are accompanied by the emergence of days with dangerous heat stress category during which everyone feels discomfort and is vulnerable to a likely heat cramp and heat exhaustion. In general, all the above features are more extended and more frequent in the 2°C than in the 1.5°C scenario. Protective measures are thus required for outdoor workers, occupational settings in hot environments, and people engaged in strenuous activities.

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Simulation of the West African monsoon onset using the HadGEM3-RA regional climate model

Cited by 46 publications

References 45 publications

Evaluation of the COSMO‐CLM high‐resolution climate simulations over West Africa

Evaluation of the COSMO‐CLM high‐resolution climate simulations over West Africa

Evaluating Climate Models with an African Lens

Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa

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