Simulation of the Structure of Bond Issuer’s Obligations Fulfillment: A Case of Sub-Federal Bonds

Abstract

Depreciable bonds issues can significantly expand the issuers' abilities to manage public debt. The purpose of the study is to suggest possible options for a model for fulfilling obligations by issuers of depreciable sub-federal bonds. The study was conducted using a discrete grouping constructed according to the criterion of the bonds face value repayment number. We propose a set of indicators to assess the issuers' possibilities to place depreciable sub-federal bonds in the Russian market. Our analyses showed that, during the period under review, the probability of successful depreciable bond issues placement in the sub-federal segment remained at a high level for bond issues with a nominal value of no more than 30.0 billion rubles and a maturity of no more than 3650 days. Deterioration of the bond market environment did not lead to significant changes in the structure of the bond issuers' obligations fulfillment. The most common was a model involving four repayments of the depreciable bonds nominal value.Index Terms-depreciable bonds, sub-federal bonds, simulation of bond issuance, structure of the bond issuers' obligations fulfillment, b ond market