Simulation of the second ETEX release in the proximity of the source

Bellasio, Roberto; Bianconi, Roberto; Mosca, Sonia; Girardi, F.; Graziani, Gabriela; Klug, W.

doi:10.1504/ijep.2000.000551

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…However, we consider the agreement among weights across the two experiments an interesting result given the fact that different meteorological conditions occurred during the two ETEX experiments. In particular, the ETEX‐2 case is well known to be a very challenging simulation case [ Girardi et al , 1998; Bellasio et al , 2000; Potempski et al , 2008] due to the passage of a cold front during the tracer resease operations. For a deeper analysis of the differences between BMA weights, we created linear combinations of model results using these weights.…”

Section: Comparison Of Bma Weights Derived From the Two Etex Data Setsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian model averaging for emergency response atmospheric dispersion multimodel ensembles: Is it really better? How many data are needed? Are the weights portable?

Potempski¹,

Galmarini²,

Riccio³

et al. 2010

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] In this paper, we investigate applicability of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methodology to atmospheric dispersion multimodel ensemble system within the context of emergency response applications. The BMA method can be used both to evaluate model predictions and to combine model results using BMA weighing factors. We analyze time evolution of BMA weights and include a detailed quantitative comparison of different combinations of model results performed by the means of statistical indicators. The analysis allows us to identify similarities and differences among different combined models. Finally, we question the portability of BMA weights among various cases. From the analysis it follows that BMA can be applied in considered problems; however, the median of the model results also performs well and produces more conservative results.Citation: Potempski, S., S. Galmarini, A. Riccio, and G. Giunta (2010), Bayesian model averaging for emergency response atmospheric dispersion multimodel ensembles: Is it really better? How many data are needed? Are the weights portable?,

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Section: Comparison Of Bma Weights Derived From the Two Etex Data Setsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian model averaging for emergency response atmospheric dispersion multimodel ensembles: Is it really better? How many data are needed? Are the weights portable?

Potempski¹,

Galmarini²,

Riccio³

et al. 2010

J. Geophys. Res.

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show abstract

“…This is, however, not the case. Some attempts to explain the inconsistencies in the measurements, like the presence of an additional source emitting after the end of the release, have also been made (Bellasio et al, 2000). Nevertheless, no indication of the presence of such a supplementary source has been detected in the inverse modelling studies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probing ETEX-II data set with inverse modelling

2008

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Abstract.We give here an account on the results of source inversion of the ETEX-II experiment. Inversion has been performed with the maximum entropy method on the basis of non-zero measurements and in conjunction with a transport model POLAIR3D. The discrepancy scaling factor between the reconstructed and the true mass has been estimated to be equal to 7. The results contrast with the method's performance on the ETEX-I source. In the latter case its mass has been reconstructed with an accuracy exceeding 80%. The large value of the discrepancy factor for ETEX-II could be ascribed to modelling difficulties, possibly linked not to the transport model itself but rather to the quality of the measurements.

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“…CALMET has been widely applied around the world over various topographies, ranging from almost flat to very complex terrain, including both mountains and land-water interfaces (e.g. Tamponi et al, 1993;Hanna et al, 1996;Scire and Robe, 1997;Bellasio et al, 2000). CALMET calculations are directly used to evaluate the three-dimensional wind field or, more often, they are used to drive different dispersion models, such as CALPUFF (Scire et al, 1995), CALGRID (Yamartino et al, 1992), KSP (Yamartino et al, 1996) and PLPM (Zanini et al, 2000), both for inert or photochemical simulations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Algorithms to Account for Topographic Shading Effects and Surface Temperature Dependence on Terrain Elevation in Diagnostic Meteorological Models

Bellasio¹,

Maffeis²,

Scire³

et al. 2005

Boundary-Layer Meteorol

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Modern diagnostic meteorological models such as CALMET parameterise slope flows, kinematic terrain effects, terrain blocking effects, and include a divergence minimisation procedure. They also contain a micrometeorological model for the calculation of the planetary boundary-layer parameters both over-land and over-water. In CALMET, in particular, the energy balance equation gives the total contribution of direct and diffuse solar radiation reaching the ground, and topography shading is not accounted for.However, especially in the case of very complex terrain, topography shading generally has important effects on the energy balance, and as a consequence, on the flow field. Also, air temperature at the ground depends on the altitude above sea level, and interpolation of sparse measurements on a regular domain grid should account for this.We present algorithms that should improve the description of the physical effects mentioned above, through the independent calculation of direct, diffuse and reflected components of shortwave radiation, the consideration of the air temperature vertical gradient and vegetation cover for the interpolation of surface temperature observations, and the evaluation of the position of the Sun and topography slope and aspect.These algorithms, of general application, were implemented into CALMET to evaluate, qualitatively and against measurements, their performance on a very complex Alpine domain in northern Italy.CALMET was chosen since it is the diagnostic meteorological model of the CALPUFF modelling system. CALPUFF is recommended by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA) as the preferred model for long-range transport in general, and for shorter distances on a case-by-case basis.

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Simulation of the second ETEX release in the proximity of the source

Cited by 4 publications

References 1 publication

Bayesian model averaging for emergency response atmospheric dispersion multimodel ensembles: Is it really better? How many data are needed? Are the weights portable?

Bayesian model averaging for emergency response atmospheric dispersion multimodel ensembles: Is it really better? How many data are needed? Are the weights portable?

Probing ETEX-II data set with inverse modelling

Algorithms to Account for Topographic Shading Effects and Surface Temperature Dependence on Terrain Elevation in Diagnostic Meteorological Models

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