Simulation of the number of storm overflows considering changes in precipitation dynamics and the urbanisation of the catchment area: A probabilistic approach

Szeląg, Bartosz; Suligowski, Roman; Drewnowski, Jakub; Paola, Francesco De; Fernández-Morales, Francisco Jesús; Bąk, Łukasz

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126275

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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Section: Comparative Analysissupporting

confidence: 59%

“…A substantial improvement in the predictive performance of the indirect sea wave estimations obtained in the present study case can be reached by combining them with the most advanced methods for the quantitative assessment of stochastic uncertainty propagation [65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72], as reported by previous environmental and ecohydraulic engineering studies [73][74][75][76][77][78][79][80]. Finally, as illustrated in Figure 6, in this study, a good correlation was observed between average buoy-based and average satellite-based wave heights (m) over the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea, associated with a slight overestimation in all the examined months.…”

Section: Comparative Analysismentioning

confidence: 89%

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On the Indirect Estimation of Wind Wave Heights over the Southern Coasts of Caspian Sea: A Comparative Analysis

Lama

Sadeghifar

Azad

et al. 2022

Water

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The prediction of ocean waves is a highly challenging task in coastal and water engineering in general due to their very high randomness. In the present case study, an analysis of wind, sea flow features, and wave height in the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea, especially in the off-coast sea waters of Mazandaran Province in Northern Iran, was performed. Satellite altimetry-based significant wave heights associated with the period of observation in 2016 were validated based on those measured at a buoy station in the same year. The comparative analysis between them showed that satellite-based wave heights are highly correlated to buoy data, as testified by a high coefficient of correlation r (0.87), low Bias (0.063 m), and root-mean-squared error (0.071 m). It was possible to assess that the dominant wave direction in the study area was northwest. Considering the main factors affecting wind-induced waves, the atmospheric framework in the examined sea region with high pressure was identified as the main factor to be taken into account in the formation of waves. The outcomes of the present research provide an interesting methodological tool for obtaining and processing accurate wave height estimations in such an intricate flow playground as the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea.

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Section: Comparative Analysissupporting

confidence: 59%

Section: Comparative Analysismentioning

confidence: 89%

On the Indirect Estimation of Wind Wave Heights over the Southern Coasts of Caspian Sea: A Comparative Analysis

Lama

Sadeghifar

Azad

et al. 2022

Water

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“…A variety of studies have dealt with the topic of urbanization effect on floods in Poland, taking different perspectives (Pińskwar et al, 2023;Szeląg et al, 2021;Szwagrzyk et al, 2018). For example, Pińskwar et al (2023), studied the interventions of the State Fire Service units at the west of Warsaw (Wielkopolska region) in urban floods and concluded that this area is most at risk in case of extreme precipitation and therefore at high risk of flash floods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urbanization vs climate drivers: investigating changes in fluvial floods in Poland

Venegas Cordero,

Mediero,

Piniewski

2024

Preprint

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Fluvial floods are one of the most severe natural hazards. Changes in flood behaviour result from an interplay of climatic and human factors. Urbanization, with increasing land imperviousness, is the most critical human factor. This study investigates the effect of urbanization vs climate drivers on river floods in Poland, using the paired catchment approach. We used daily river flow data from 1975 to 2020 for four selected urban catchments and their non-urban counterparts as well as extreme precipitation, soil moisture, and snowmelt data generated from the process-based SWAT model. Changes in impervious areas were assessed using two state-of-the-art Copernicus products, revealing a consistent upward trend in imperviousness across all selected urban catchments. We employed a range of statistical methods: the Pettitt test, the Mann Kendall (MK) multitemporal test, the Poisson regression test, multi-temporal correlation analysis and multiple linear regression to assess changes in the magnitude and frequency of floods and flood drivers. The MK test results showed a contrasting behaviour between urban (increases) and non-urban (no change) catchments for three of four analysed catchment pairs. Flood frequency increased significantly in only one urban catchment. Multiple regression analysis revealed complex that non-urban catchments consistently exhibited stronger relationships between floods and climate drivers than the urban ones, although the results of residual analysis were not statistically significant. In summary, the evidence for the impact of urbanization on floods was found to be moderate. The results emphasize the importance of considering both hydrometeorological and human-induced factors when assessing river flood dynamics in Poland.

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“…Several studies conducted in different areas have shown that the magnitude and pattern of precipitation differ as a result of climate change (Szeląg et al 2021). The high variability of climate change imposes an increasing challenge for the management of freshwater resources (i.e., due to reduced freshwater availability) (Nunes Carvalho et al 2021), which highlights the increasing need for protecting the quantity and quality of water resources, particularly in sensitive zones (Lama et al 2021a, b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Benefits of Nature-Inspired Algorithms for the Parameterization of ANN in the Prediction of Water Demand

Zubaidi

Al-Bdairi

Ortega‐Martorell

et al. 2023

J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage.

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Accurate forecasting techniques for a stochastic pattern of water demand are essential for any city that faces high variability in climate factors and a shortage of water resources. This study was the first research to assess the impact of climatic factors on urban water demand in Iraq, which is one of the hottest countries in the world. We developed a novel forecasting methodology that includes data preprocessing and an artificial neural network (ANN) model, which we integrated with a recent nature-inspired metaheuristic algorithm [marine predators algorithm (MPA)]. The MPA-ANN algorithm was compared with four nature-inspired metaheuristic algorithms. Nine climatic factors were examined with different scenarios to simulate the monthly stochastic urban water demand over 11 years for Baghdad City, Iraq. The results revealed that (1) precipitation, solar radiation, and dew point temperature are the most relevant factors; (2) the ANN model becomes more accurate when it is used in combination with the MPA; and (3) this methodology can accurately forecast water demand considering the variability in climatic factors. These findings are of considerable significance to water utilities in planning, reviewing, and comparing the availability of freshwater resources and increasing water requests (i.e., adaptation variability of climatic factors).

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Simulation of the number of storm overflows considering changes in precipitation dynamics and the urbanisation of the catchment area: A probabilistic approach

Cited by 9 publications

References 48 publications

On the Indirect Estimation of Wind Wave Heights over the Southern Coasts of Caspian Sea: A Comparative Analysis

On the Indirect Estimation of Wind Wave Heights over the Southern Coasts of Caspian Sea: A Comparative Analysis

Urbanization vs climate drivers: investigating changes in fluvial floods in Poland

Assessing the Benefits of Nature-Inspired Algorithms for the Parameterization of ANN in the Prediction of Water Demand

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