Simulation of Storm Surges in Bangladesh Using NWP Models

Faisal, Quazi Aseer; Rashid, Towhida; Hossain, Muhammad Arif; Hassan, SM Quamrul; Meandad, Javed

doi:10.3329/dujees.v9i1.54859

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 2 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The limitations and challenges associated with conventional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) methods commonly used in storm surge prediction are then examined [31][32][33][34]. Building upon this understanding, we propose an alternative approach, the BALSSA model, which offers unique features to address the limitations of traditional methods [35,36]. The key features and capabilities of BALSSA are discussed, highlighting its potential to enhance storm surge prediction.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative Analysis of BALSSA and Conventional NWP Methods: A Case Study in Extreme Storm Surge Prediction in Macao

Ian,

Tang,

Pau

2023

Atmosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In coastal regions, accurate storm surge prediction is crucial for effective disaster management and risk mitigation. This study presents a comparative analysis between BALSSA (Bidirectional Attention-based LSTM for Storm Surge Architecture) and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) numerical storm surge model, focusing on the Saola-induced storm surge in Macao, September 2023. To train and assess the model, we leverage an extensive dataset comprising meteorological and tide level information from more than 80 typhoon occurrences in Macao spanning the period from 2017 to 2023. The results provide evidence of BALSSA’s effectiveness in capturing the complex spatio-temporal dynamics of storm surges, with a lead time of up to 72 h, as reflected by its MAE of 0.019 and RMSE of 0.024. It demonstrates reliable accuracy in predicting storm surge magnitude, timing, and spatial extent, potentially contributing to more precise and timely warnings for coastal communities. Furthermore, the real-time data assimilation feature of BALSSA ensures up-to-date information, aligned with the latest observations, which is essential for effective emergency preparedness and response. The high-resolution grids enhance risk assessment, highlighting BALSSA’s potential for early warnings, emergency planning, and coastal risk management. This study contributes valuable insights to the broader field of storm surge prediction, guiding decision-making processes and supporting the development of effective strategies to enhance coastal resilience.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative Analysis of BALSSA and Conventional NWP Methods: A Case Study in Extreme Storm Surge Prediction in Macao

Ian,

Tang,

Pau

2023

Atmosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…6). Later, the catastrophe such as storm surge level (~1 m; Faisal et al 2020) did not hit the danger level as anticipated, resulting in no major damage (Guha-Sapir et al 2022). It seems that BMD took a safer and conservative decision during TC Mora by issuing the highest signal no.…”

Section: Tc Early Warning Signalmentioning

confidence: 95%

Has Tropical Cyclone Disaster Risk Increased in Bangladesh: Retrospective Analysis of Storm Information, Disaster Statistics, and Mitigation Measures

Islam¹

2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Tropical cyclone (TC) disaster risk has likely increased in Bangladesh since the beginning of the 21st century. It is primarily due to the cumulative impact of rising coastal exposures such as population, insufficient funding to address disaster risks, and ineffective utilization of century-old early warning signals for TC. From 2000 to 2020, the average number of people affected by a Category 1–2 TC (according to Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) was 3.18 million, representing a 28.91% increase from the average reported during 1979–1999. Moreover, the past two decades have witnessed a staggering 69.83% of all TC-induced disasters, and with the exception of Chattogram, all coastal districts have seen a rise in the number of TC disasters. Notably, the frequency of TCs and meteorological trends, which remain relatively constant over time, cannot account for either the size of the affected population or the number of TC-related disasters reported at the sub-national level. During 2000–2013, roughly 67% of the disaster management budget was provided by foreign and humanitarian aid, and a significant funding gap was observed during major TC disasters, such as TC Sidr in 2007. Our findings also suggest that the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) tends to issue higher levels of warnings irrespective of the intensity and potential hazard of a TC, which may have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate in recent years. However, there is a growing concern that this approach may lead to an emerging type of TC disaster risk, where people may start to disregard the warnings due to their perceived lack of credibility.

show abstract

Simulation of Storm Surges in Bangladesh Using NWP Models

Cited by 2 publications

References 2 publications

Comparative Analysis of BALSSA and Conventional NWP Methods: A Case Study in Extreme Storm Surge Prediction in Macao

Comparative Analysis of BALSSA and Conventional NWP Methods: A Case Study in Extreme Storm Surge Prediction in Macao

Has Tropical Cyclone Disaster Risk Increased in Bangladesh: Retrospective Analysis of Storm Information, Disaster Statistics, and Mitigation Measures

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About