Simulation of operational reliability of thermal power plants during a power crisis: Are we underestimating power shortage risk?

Yuyama, Ayumi; Kajitani, Yoshio; Shoji, Gaku

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.09.089

Cited by 10 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Based on the probability density evolution method, Liu et al [38] put forward a lifecycle operational reliability assessment framework for WDNs, in which the time-dependent pipe roughness model is included to reflect the pipeline degradation process in the lifecycle. Yuyama et al [39] established a probability model to calculate the accident probability of thermal power plants and used the Bootstrap simulation to estimate the potential risk of power supply shortage. Sabouhi et al [40] proposed reliability evaluation models for gas and steam turbine power plants and identified the critical components through the proposed reliability-oriented sensitivity indexes to determine the efficient maintenance strategies.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated methodology for the supply reliability analysis of multi-product pipeline systems under pumps failure

Zhou

Gelder

Liang

et al. 2020

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated methodology for the supply reliability analysis of multi-product pipeline systems under pumps failure

Zhou

Gelder

Liang

et al. 2020

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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“…Long-term power conservation is sometimes required, particularly in large-scale natural disasters during which power plants and trunk transmission systems are damaged. The Great East Japan Earthquake [ 4 ] and the 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake [ 5 ] are typical examples of such events, especially the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, which resulted in power shortages for at least five months. Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) [ 6 ] focused on the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and presented a discussion of long-term power shortage problems for future large-scale earthquake scenarios; our prior preliminary methods were based on this discussion, but a more practical model was needed for further consideration.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework to estimate a long-term power shortage risk following large-scale earthquake and tsunami disasters

et al. 2023

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While power shortages during and after a natural disaster cause severe impacts on response and recovery activities, related modeling and data collection efforts have been limited. In particular, no methodology exists to analyze long-term power shortages such as those that occurred during the Great East Japan Earthquake. To visualize a risk of supply shortage during a disaster and assist the coherent recovery of supply and demand systems, this study proposes an integrated damage and recovery estimation framework including the power generator, trunk distribution systems (over 154 kV), and power demand system. This framework is unique because it thoroughly investigates the vulnerability and resilience characteristics of power systems as well as businesses as primary power consumers observed in past disasters in Japan. These characteristics are essentially modeled by statistical functions, and a simple power supply–demand matching algorism is implemented using these functions. As a result, the proposed framework reproduces the original power supply and demand status from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake in a relatively consistent manner. Using stochastic components of the statistical functions, the average supply margin is estimated to be 4.1%, but the worst-case scenario is a 5.6% shortfall relative to peak demand. Thus, by applying the framework, the study improves knowledge on potential risk by examining a particular past disaster; the findings are expected to enhance risk perception and supply and demand preparedness after a future large-scale earthquake and tsunami disaster.

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“…These methods are generally used for non-repairable equipment in the manufacturing and automobile industries [6]. In [7] a failure probability model for intensively used thermal power plants was developed. They used the lognormal and Weibull hazard models based on the observed data well.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Archives of Thermodynamics

Sultanov,

Griga,

Ivanitckii

et al. 2021

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This paper presents the results of developing a methodology for assessing and predicting the technical condition of boiler plants and steam turbines. The proposed method is based on generalized experimental data on failures to predict the damage of the principal elements and components of thermal power plants by Monte-Carlo simulation. The proposed method considers the complexity of technological processes, turnaround time, failure rate, and condition of the residual metal life. It allows developing approaches to assessing each element's safety to obtain a reliable and representative sample of failure statistics to reliability assessment of boilers and steam turbines of thermal power plants. According to the results, the probability of failure operation of steam boilers and turbines is 0.037 in the 100 MW conditions. The obtained results can be used to create predictive models that provide approaches to prolonging the operational state of elements of boiler plants and steam turbines of thermal power plants. It can be used in the implementation of projects of digital energy systems for monitoring and diagnostics of the main power equipment of thermal power plants.

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Simulation of operational reliability of thermal power plants during a power crisis: Are we underestimating power shortage risk?

Cited by 10 publications

References 21 publications

An integrated methodology for the supply reliability analysis of multi-product pipeline systems under pumps failure

An integrated methodology for the supply reliability analysis of multi-product pipeline systems under pumps failure

A framework to estimate a long-term power shortage risk following large-scale earthquake and tsunami disasters

Archives of Thermodynamics

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