Simulation of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 with an Agent-based Model of Zonal Restraint

Álvarez, L Manuel; Rojas–Galeano, Sergio

doi:10.1101/2020.06.13.20130542

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…We extended the agent-based model of COVID-19 epidemics of [ 57 ], which proposes a SIRE + CARDS epidemic model considering four states: susceptible, infectious, recovered, and extinct. Infectious is actually viewed as a macrostate that includes confirmed, asymptomatic, risky, fatal, and serious conditions.…”

Section: Methods and Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of Personal Protection Habits on the Spread of Pandemics: Insights from an Agent-Based Model

Alvarez-Pomar

Rojas–Galeano

2021

The Scientific World Journal

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Background. After several waves of spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world are struggling to regain their economies by slowly lifting mobility restrictions and social distance measures applied during the crisis. Meanwhile, recent studies provide compelling evidence on how contact distancing, the use of face masks, and handwashing habits can reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this context, we investigated the effect that these personal protection habits can have in preventing new waves of contagion. Methods. We extended an agent-based COVID-19 epidemic model in a simulated community to incorporate the mechanisms of these aforementioned personal care habits and measure their incidence in person-to-person transmission. A full factorial experiment design was performed to illustrate the extent to which the interplay between these personal habits is effective in mitigating the spread of disease. A global sensitivity analysis was performed on the parameters that control these habits to further validate the results. Results. We found that observing physical distance is the dominant habit in reducing disease transmission, although adopting either or both of the other two habits is necessary to some extent to suppress a new outbreak entirely. When physical distance is not observed, adherence to the use of masks or handwashing has a significant decrease in infections and mortality, but the epidemic still unfolds. We also found that in all scenarios, the combined effect of adhering to the three habits is more powerful than adopting them separately. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that a broad adherence of the population to voluntary self-care habits would help contain unfold of new outbreaks. The purpose of our model is illustrative and contributes to ratify the importance of urging citizens to adopt the amalgam of personal care habits as a primary collective protection measure to prevent communities from returning to confinements, while immunisation is carried out in late stages of the pandemic.

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Section: Methods and Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, there are a number of optional NPIs available to enforce on the community, including lockdowns, quarantines, mass testing, and zonal isolation. For specific details of the agent-based design, epidemic model, transition events, and NPI dynamics, we refer the reader to [ 57 ].…”

Section: Methods and Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Personal Protection Habits on the Spread of Pandemics: Insights from an Agent-Based Model

Alvarez-Pomar

Rojas–Galeano

2021

The Scientific World Journal

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“…We build upon the agent-based simulation of COVID-19 epidemic introduced in ( Alvarez and Rojas-Galeano, 2020 ). That model was designed to simulate the dynamics of the COVID-19 contagion within a population of a toy city, based-on a SIRE+CARDS epidemic model considering four states: Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered and Extinct.…”

Section: Methods and Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, a number of NPIs are available including lockdowns, quarantines and mass-testings. For more details of the agent-based design, the epidemic model, the transition events, and the NPIs dynamics, we refer the reader to ( Alvarez and Rojas-Galeano, 2020 ).…”

Section: Methods and Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Personal Care Habits on Post-Lockdown COVID-19 Contagion: Insights from Agent-based Simulations

Alvarez-Pomar

Rojas–Galeano

2020

Preprint

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After the first wave of spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world are struggling to recover their economies by slowly lifting the mobility restrictions and social distance measures enforced during the crisis. Therefore, the post-lockdown containment of the disease will depend strongly not any more on government-imposed interventions but on personal care measures, taken voluntarily by their citizens. In this respect, recent studies have shed some light regarding the effectiveness individual protection habits may have in preventing SARS-Cov-2 transmission, particularly physical contact distancing, facial mask wearing and hand-washing habits. In this paper we describe experiments performed on a simulated COVID-19 epidemic in an artificial population using an agent based model, so as to illustrate to what extent the interplay between such personal care habits contributes to mitigate the spread of the disease, assuming the lack of other population-wide non-pharmaceutical interventions or vaccines. We discuss scenarios where wide adherence to these voluntary care habits alone, can be enough to contain the unfold of the contagion. Our model purpose is illustrative and contributes to ratify the importance of disseminating the message regarding the collective benefits of mass adoption of personal protection and hygiene habits, as an exit strategy for COVID-19 in the new normal state.

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“…NPIs are healthcare policies readily available at all times and in all countries, intended to mitigate the effects of the spread of a new virus or pathogens when no vaccines or medicine are available yet [55]. The potential impacts of NPIs on an influenza epidemic are to delay the introduction of the infection into a population, delay the height and peak of the outbreak if it has started, reduce transmission by personal protective or environmental measures, and reduce the number of infections and hence the number of severe cases [51].…”

Section: Modeling Npismentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and Evaluating Epidemic Control Strategies With High-Order Temporal Networks

et al. 2021

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Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) are essential measures that reduce and control a severe outbreak or a pandemic, especially in the absence of drug treatments. However, estimating and evaluating their impact on society remains challenging, considering the numerous and closely tied aspects to examine. This article proposes a fine-grain modeling methodology for NPIs, based on high-order relationships between people and environments, mimicking direct and indirect contagion pathways over time. After assessing the ability of each intervention in controlling an epidemic propagation, we devise a multi-objective optimization framework, which, based on the epidemiological data, calculates the NPI combination that should be implemented to minimize the spread of an epidemic as well as the damage due to the intervention. Each intervention is thus evaluated through an agent-based simulation, considering not only the reduction in the fraction of infected but also to what extent its application damages the daily life of the population. We run experiments on three data sets, and the results illustrate how the application of NPIs should be tailored to the specific epidemic situation. They further highlight the critical importance of correctly implementing personal protective (e.g., using face masks) and sanitization measures to slow down a pathogen spreading, especially in crowded places.

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Simulation of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 with an Agent-based Model of Zonal Restraint

Cited by 4 publications

References 18 publications

Impact of Personal Protection Habits on the Spread of Pandemics: Insights from an Agent-Based Model

Impact of Personal Protection Habits on the Spread of Pandemics: Insights from an Agent-Based Model

Impact of Personal Care Habits on Post-Lockdown COVID-19 Contagion: Insights from Agent-based Simulations

Modeling and Evaluating Epidemic Control Strategies With High-Order Temporal Networks

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