Simulation of land use changes and impacts on the water balance — A case study for Belgium

Bultot, Franz; Dupriez, G. L.; Gellens, D.

doi:10.1016/0022-1694(90)90064-5

Cited by 82 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Aerts et al, 2006;Booij, 2005;Bultot et al, 1988Bultot et al, , 1990De Wit et al, 2001Gellens, 1991;Gellens and Roulin, 1998;Giorgi and Coppola, 2007;Kwadijk and Rotmans, 1995;Leander et al, 2008;Middelkoop et al, 2004;Pfister et al, 2000;Tu, 2006;Van den Hurk et al, 2007;Van Deursen and Middelkoop, 2002;Vanneuville and Holvoet, 2009;Van Pelt et al, 2009;Ward et al, 2007Ward et al, , 2008Ward et al, , 2011. Although there are differences in the results, most studies suggest that the frequency of floods will increase in the future due to climate change.…”

Section: Past Studies: Climate Hydrology and Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

Ward

Moel

Aerts

2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

139

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Abstract. Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (C 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33 % and 100 % when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

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Section: Past Studies: Climate Hydrology and Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

Ward

Moel

Aerts

2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

139

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“…Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Root Zone Depths (RDF) for the agricultural crops (winter cereals) grown within Bells Creek, and for grassland for the simulated management scenarios involving restoration to grazing marsh, were assessed from the literature (Bultot et al, 1990;Thompson et al, 1981).…”

Section: Vegetationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological modelling of a drained grazing marsh under agricultural land use and the simulation of restoration management scenarios

Al-Khudhairy

Thompson

Gavin

et al. 1999

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The capability of the spatially-distributed, physically-based, rainfall-runoff modelling system, MIKE SHE, to simulate the hydrological behaviour of the natural and drained parts of the North Kent Grazing Marshes, UK, is investigated. The MIKE SHE code is applied to Bells Creek, a small, underdrained, agricultural catchment located within the marshes. The model is used to both provide insights into the essential parameters that control the hydrological processes in the catchment, and predict the influence of various, hypothetical, water management strategies (land use and drainage) on pumped discharge and soil moisture storage in the catchment. The water table model predictions arising from these hypothetical scenarios are also compared against field data obtained from on-going hydrological research on the neighbouring, natural, Elmley Marshes. The comparison is found to be favourable. The results of this study indicate the potential of the MIKE SHE system to simulate the hydrological regime of these wetlands, and hence to play an important role as a tool that can assist environmental and conservation agencies in the sound management of wetland resources. Modélisation hydrologique d'un marais de pâturage drainé utilisé comme terrain "agricole et simulation de scénarios de gestion de restaurationRésumé Ce travail examine la capacité d'un système de modélisation hydrologique physique, spatialement distribué, MIKE SHE, à simuler le comportement hydrologique de zones naturelles et drainées des marais du nord du Kent, au Royaume-Uni. Le code MIKE SHE a été appliqué au petit bassin agricole drainé de Bells Creek, situé dans ces marais. La modèle est utilisé afin de fournir à la fois un aperçu de paramètres essentiels contrôlant les processus hydrologiques dans le bassin et pour prédire l'influence de différentes stratégies de gestion des eaux (utilisation des terres et drainage) sur les débits pompés et l'humidité du sol. On compare également les prédictions du modèle de la nappe fournies pour ces différents scénarios aux données de terrain recueillies dans le cadre des recherches en cours sur les marais Elmley voisins, encore à l'état naturel. Les résultats de la comparaison sont positifs. Les résultats de cette étude montrent la capacité du code MIKE SHE à simuler le régime hydrologique de ces zones humides et donc sa vocation à être utilisé par les organismes en charge de l'environnement et de la protection pour un gestion rationnelle des ressources des zones humides.

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“…Bahremand et al (2006), Bultot et al (1990) among others used a modeling approach to assess the impact of reforestation on the hydrology. Bahremand et al (2006) concluded that 50% increase of forest areas decreased the peak discharges by 12%.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting land-use change and its impact on the groundwater system of the Kleine Nete catchment, Belgium

Dams

Woldeamlak

Batelaan

2008

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

100

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Abstract. Land-use changes are frequently indicated to be one of the main human-induced factors influencing the groundwater system. For land-use change, groundwater research has mainly focused on the change in water quality thereby neglecting changes in quantity. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of land-use changes, from 2000 until 2020, on the hydrological balance and in particular on groundwater quantity, as results from a case study in the Kleine Nete basin, Belgium. New is that this study tests a methodology, which couples a land-use change model with a water balance and a steady-state groundwater model. Four future land-use scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) are modelled with the CLUE-S model. Water balance components, groundwater level and baseflow are simulated using the WetSpass model in conjunction with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that the average recharge decreases with 2.9, 1.6, 1.8 and 0.8% for scenario A1, A2, B1 and B2, respectively, over the 20 covered years. The predicted reduction in recharge results in a small decrease of the average groundwater level in the basin, ranging from 2.5 cm for scenario A1 to 0.9 cm for scenario B2, and a reduction of the baseflow with maximum 2.3% and minimum 0.7% for scenario A1 and B2, respectively. Although these averages appear to indicate small changes in the groundwater system, spatial analysis shows that much larger changes are located near the major cities in the study area. Hence, spatial planning should take better account of effects of land-use change on the groundwater system and define mitigating actions for reducing the negative impacts of land-use change.

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Simulation of land use changes and impacts on the water balance — A case study for Belgium

Cited by 82 publications

References 16 publications

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

Hydrological modelling of a drained grazing marsh under agricultural land use and the simulation of restoration management scenarios

Predicting land-use change and its impact on the groundwater system of the Kleine Nete catchment, Belgium

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