Simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in Changsha, China

Chen, Tianmu; Zhao, Bin; Liu, Ruchun; Zhang, Xixing; Zhi, Xie; Chen, Shuilian

doi:10.1177/0300060518764268

Cited by 17 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Copyright ©1993-2001 Robert I. Macey & George F. Oster) was employed for model simulation. Simulation methods were as previously described [6,[17][18][19][20]. Microsoft Office Excel (Microsoft, Redmond, WA, USA) and GraphPad Prism 7.00 (GraphPad Software, La Jolla California, USA) were employed for figure development and data analysis.…”

Section: Simulation Methods and Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals in Hubei Province, China: a modelling study

Zhao

et al. 2019

Preprint

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AbstractObjectiveShigellosis has been a heavy burden in China. However, its relative transmissibility in male and female individuals remains unclear.MethodA sex-based Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious/Asymptomatic–Recovered (SEIAR) model was applied to explore the dataset of reported shigellosis cases built by Hubei Province from 2005 to 2017. Two indicators, secondary attack rate (SAR) and relative ratio of SAR between males and females, were developed to assess the relative transmissibility in males and females.ResultsThe number of cases and reported incidences in males and females demonstrated a significant decreasing trend (Male trend: χ2 = 11.268, P = 0.001, Female trend: χ2 = 11.144, P = 0.001). SEIAR model had a great fitting effect with the data of shigellosis (P < 0.001). Our simulation revealed that, when parameter βfm = 0, the greatest decrease in cases were obtained for different genders. The median value for SARmm was 2.3225 × 10−8 (Range: 1.7574 × 10−8 – 3.8565 × 10−8), SARmf was 2.5729 × 10−8 (Range: 1.3772 × 10−8 – 3.2773 × 10−8), SARfm was 2.7630 × 10−8 (Range: 1.8387 × 10−8 – 4.2638 × 10−8) and SARff was 2.1061 × 10−8 (Range: 1.0201 × 10−8 – 3.2140 × 10−8). The median value of relative ratio calculated by SAR in mm versus (vs) mf was 0.93 (Range: 0.75 – 1.47), mm vs fm was 0.90 (Range: 0.41 – 1.81), mm vs ff was 1.07 (Range: 0.55 – 2.93), mf vs fm was 0.99 (Range: 0.32 – 1.25), mf vs ff was 1.17 (Range: 0.43 – 3.21) and ff vs fm was 0.75 (Range: 0.35 – 1.06).ConclusionTransmissibility of shigellosis is different among male and female individuals. Shigellosis seems to be more transmissible in males than in females.Author summaryShigellosis, also known as bacillary dysentery, is an infectious disease caused by the genus Shigella spp. Developing countries have high disease burden of shigellosis. However, its relative transmissibility in male and female individuals remains unclear. In this study, we employed a mathematical model to explore the dataset of reported shigellosis cases built by Hubei Province, China from 2005 to 2017. Two indicators, secondary attack rate (SAR) and relative ratio of SAR between males and females, were developed to assess the relative transmissibility in males and females. We found that shigellosis has medium transmissibility among male and female individuals. The disease seems to be more transmissible in males than in females.

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Section: Simulation Methods and Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals in Hubei Province, China: a modelling study

Zhao

et al. 2019

Preprint

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“…was employed for model simulation and least root mean square was adopted to assess the goodness of fit. The simulation methods were the same as the previously publications [12,14,19,30,31]. The chi-square and trend chi-square tests and t test were performed by SPSS 13.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA).…”

Section: Parameter Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological characteristics and transmissibility of shigellosis in Hubei Province, China, 2005 – 2017

Chen

Rui

et al. 2020

BMC Infect Dis

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Background: Shigellosis is one of the main diarrhea diseases in developing countries. However, the transmissibility of shigellosis remains unclear. Methods: We used the dataset of shigellosis cases reported between January 2005 and December 2017, from Hubei Province, China. A mathematical model was developed based on the natural history and the transmission mechanism of the disease. By fitting the data using the model, transmission relative rate from person to person (b) and from reservoir to person (b w ), and the effective reproduction number (R eff ) were estimated. To simulate the contribution of b and b w during the transmission, we performed a "knock-out" simulation in four scenarios:Results: A total of 130,770 shigellosis cases were reported in Hubei province, among which 13 cases were dead. The median annual incidence was 19.96 per 100,000 persons (range: 5.99 per 100,000 persons -29.47 per 100,000 persons) with a decreased trend (trend χ 2 = 25,470.27, P < 0.001). The mean values of b and b w were 0.0898 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.0851-0.0946) and 1.1264 × 10 − 9 (95% CI: 4.1123 × 10 − 10 -1.8416 × 10 − 9 ), respectively. The "knock-out" simulation showed that the number of cases simulated by scenario A was almost the same as scenario B, and scenario C was almost the same as scenario D. The mean value of R eff of shigellosis was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.13-1.25) and decreased slightly with a Linear model until it decreased to an epidemic threshold of 0.99 (95% CI: 0.65-1.34) in 2029. Conclusions:The incidence of shigellosis is still in high level. The transmissibility of the disease is low in Hubei Province. The transmission would be interrupted in the year of 2029.

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“…was employed for the model simulation. The simulation methods were as previously described [17,[29][30][31][32]. According to our previous published studies [33,34], we assumed that heterogeneity of the transmissibility existed during an ascending trend and a descending trend.…”

Section: Parameter Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals: a modeling study in Hubei Province, China

et al. 2020

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Background: Developing countries exhibit a high disease burden from shigellosis. Owing to the different incidences in males and females, this study aims to analyze the features involved in the transmission of shigellosis among male (subscript m) and female (subscript f) individuals using a newly developed sex-based model. Methods:The data of reported shigellosis cases were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2017. A sex-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/ Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEIAR) model was applied to explore the dataset, and a sex-age-based SEIAR model was applied in 2010 to explore the sex-and age-specific transmissions.Results: From 2005 to 2017, 130 770 shigellosis cases (including 73 981 male and 56 789 female cases) were reported in Hubei Province. The SEIAR model exhibited a significant fitting effect with the shigellosis data (P < 0.001). The median values of the shigellosis transmission were 2.3225 × 10 8 for SAR mm (secondary attack rate from male to male), 2.5729 × 10 8 for SAR mf , 2.7630 × 10 -8 for SAR fm , and 2.1061 × 10 -8 for SAR ff . The top five mean values of the transmission relative rate in 2010 (where the subscript 1 was defined as male and age ≤ 5 years, 2 was male and age 6 to 59 years, 3 was male and age ≥ 60 years, 4 was female and age ≤ 5 years, 5 was female and age 6 to 59 years, and 6 was male and age ≥ 60 years) were 5.76 × 10 -8 for β 61 , 5.32 × 10 -8 for β 31 , 4.01 × 10 -8 for β 34 , 7.52 × 10 -9 for β 62 , and 6.04 × 10 -9 for β 64 .Conclusions: The transmissibility of shigellosis differed among male and female individuals. The transmissibility between the genders was higher than that within the genders, particularly female-to-male transmission. The most important route in children (age ≤ 5 years) was transmission from the elderly (age ≥ 60 years). Therefore, the greatest interventions should be applied in females and the elderly.

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Simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in Changsha, China

Cited by 17 publications

References 16 publications

The relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals in Hubei Province, China: a modelling study

The relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals in Hubei Province, China: a modelling study

Epidemiological characteristics and transmissibility of shigellosis in Hubei Province, China, 2005 – 2017

Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals: a modeling study in Hubei Province, China

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