Simulation of future forest and land use/cover changes (2019–2039) using the cellular automata-Markov model

Aksoy, Hasan Hüseyin; Kaptan, Sinan

doi:10.1080/10106049.2020.1778102

Cited by 30 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Among the reasons for such decline is a continuously adverse impacts of climate change and other evolving challenges related to natural forests. Some of the most important impacts of global climate change is being felt among all sectors of society, predominantly in developing countries (Aksoy and Kaptan, 2020;Chapagain et al, 2020). Their vulnerability to climate change stems from a combination of factors, including their predominantly tropical location and numerous socioeconomic, demographic, and regulatory tendencies that limit their ability to adapt to the many changes (Vogt et al, 2016;Sonwa, 2018;Nembilwi et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determinants of rural household livelihood dependence on non-timber forest products: A case study from Inanda Community, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Wale

Nkoana²,

Mkuna³

2022

Front. For. Glob. Change

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Natural forest resources are the most accessible sources of services, products and incomes for many adjacent rural communities. However, the declining resilience of forests and agricultural sectors particularly in South Africa is concerning and a real public policy challenge. Little is known about the determinants of rural community dependence on natural forests, and the importance of this dependence to rural livelihoods and environmental outcomes. This study investigated factors affecting rural household level of forest dependence and the contribution of natural forests to rural household livelihoods in the “KwaZulu-Natal Sandstone Sourveld (KZNSS)” ecosystem. Employing survey data from 150 forest-dependent households and a logit-transformed Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model, the study found that there is significant level of forest dependence in the study area. The empirical findings showed that the contribution of forest resources to rural livelihoods is significantly influenced by off-farm incomes, employment incomes, forest vouchers received from the “Wildlands Project” in exchange for planting trees, values of household assets, changing of time and dates in visiting the forest for the collection of forest products, and perceived changes in temperature. These findings imply that institutional arrangements for programs like the “Wildlands Project” need to be developed from the beginning with the participation of all pertinent stakeholders for everyone to accept it and understand the regulations. Additionally, legislative changes are needed to help rural residents sustainably support their livelihoods and diversify their sources of income to build resilience and ease pressure on natural forests.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determinants of rural household livelihood dependence on non-timber forest products: A case study from Inanda Community, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Wale

Nkoana²,

Mkuna³

2022

Front. For. Glob. Change

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“…LULC changes leading to alterations in the ecological environment have a significant impact on ecosystems and biodiversity [8]. Information on the changes of LULC over time is essential for social needs, which covers all aspects of life, such as urban planning, environmental research, natural resource management, and sustainable development [9,10]. Historical maps of LULC enable detection of landscape changes and help to assess drivers and potential future trajectories [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution and Prediction of Landscape Patterns in the Qinghai Lake Basin

Yanli

Chen

2021

Land

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The Qinghai Lake Basin (QLB), located in the northeastern part of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, has a fragile ecological environment and is sensitive to global climate change. With the progress of societal and economic development, the tourism industry in the QLB has also developed rapidly, which is bound to result in great changes in landscape patterns. In this study, we first analyzed the change characteristics of landscape patterns in the QLB from 1990 to 2018, and we then used the Markov model and the future land use simulation (FLUS) model, combined with natural, social, and ecological factors, to predict the changes in the number and spatial distribution of landscape patterns in the period between 2026 and 2034. The results of the study show that desert areas have been greatly reduced and transformed into grasslands. The grassland area expanded from 49.22% in 1990 to 59.45% in 2018, corresponding to an increase of 10.23%. The direct cause of this result is the combined effects of natural and man-made factors, with the latter playing a leading role. As such, government decision-making is crucial. Lastly, we simulated the landscape patterns in the period from 2018 to 2034. The results show that in the next 16 years, the proportion of various landscapes will change little, and the spatial distribution will be stable. This research provides a reference for the formulation of ecological environment management and protection policies in the QLB.

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“…The simulation results were combined with the actual situation of different regions to provide guidance for different regions to adjust the future land use structure, thus accelerating the realization of watershed ecological protection and high-quality development of the national strategic goals. Land use change is a complex dynamic process, and an analysis of the present situation of land use compared to the past cannot fully express the qualitative change of land use types [73], and there is a lack of consideration for the impact of multiple development goals. By analyzing the past and simulating future land use patterns under different scenarios, this study discusses the impact of future land use structure change on ESV under the influence of different development goals.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Changes with Ecosystem Service Value in the Yellow River Basin

Lou

Yang

Zhang

et al. 2022

Land

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Land use change plays a crucial role in global environmental change. Understanding the mode and land use change procedure is conducive to improving the quality of the global eco-environment and promoting the harmonized development of human–land relationships. Large river basins play an important role in areal socioeconomic development. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is an important ecological protective screen, economic zone, and major grain producing area in China, which faces challenges with respect to ecological degradation and water and sediment management. Simulating the alterations in ecosystem service value (ESV) owing to land use change in the YRB under multiple scenarios is of great importance to guaranteeing the ecological security of the basin and improve the regional ESV. According to the land use data of 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2018, the alterations in the land use and ESV in the YRB over the past 30 years were calculated and analyzed on the basis of six land use types: cultivated land, forestland, grassland, water area, built-up land, and unused land. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to simulate the land use change in the study area under three scenarios (natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection in 2026); estimate the ESV under each scenario; and conduct a comparative analysis. We found that the land use area in the YRB changed significantly during the study period. The ESV of the YRB has slowly increased by ~USD 15 billion over the past 30 years. The ESV obtained under the ecological protection scenario is the highest. The simulation of the YRB’s future land use change, and comparison and analysis of the ESV under different scenarios, provide guidance and a scientific basis for promoting ecological conservation and high-quality development of river basins worldwide.

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Simulation of future forest and land use/cover changes (2019–2039) using the cellular automata-Markov model

Cited by 30 publications

References 49 publications

Determinants of rural household livelihood dependence on non-timber forest products: A case study from Inanda Community, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Determinants of rural household livelihood dependence on non-timber forest products: A case study from Inanda Community, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Evolution and Prediction of Landscape Patterns in the Qinghai Lake Basin

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Changes with Ecosystem Service Value in the Yellow River Basin

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