Simulation of extreme weather events by a stochastic weather generator

Semenov, Mikhail A.

doi:10.3354/cr00731

Cited by 197 publications

(161 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Specifically, climate change scenarios are frequently produced by stochastic weather generators (e.g. Semenov 2008). Conventional weather generators are based on autoregressive-type models for time series of daily minimum and maximum temperature.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves

Furrer¹,

Katz²,

Walter³

et al. 2010

Clim. Res.

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Although hot spells and heat waves are considered extreme meteorological phenomena, the statistical theory of extreme values has only rarely, if ever, been applied. To address this shortcoming, we extended the point process approach to extreme value analysis to model the frequency, duration, and intensity of hot spells. The annual frequency of hot spells was modeled by a Poisson distribution, and their length by a geometric distribution. To account for the temporal dependence of daily maximum temperatures within a hot spell, the excesses over a high threshold were modeled by a conditional generalized Pareto distribution, whose scale parameter depends on the excess on the previous day. Requiring only univariate extreme value theory, our proposed approach is simple enough to be readily generalized to incorporate trends in hot spell characteristics. Through a heat wave simulator, the statistical modeling of hot spells can be extended to apply to more fullfledged heat waves, which are difficult to model directly. Our statistical model for hot spells was fitted to time series of daily maximum temperature during the summer heat wave season in Phoenix, Arizona (USA), Fort Collins, Colorado (USA), and Paris, France. Trends in the frequency, duration, and intensity of hot spells were fitted as well. The heat wave simulator was used to convert any such trends into the corresponding changes in the characteristics of heat waves. By being based at least in part on extreme value theory, our proposed approach is both more realistic and more flexible than techniques heretofore applied to model hot spells and heat waves.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves

Furrer¹,

Katz²,

Walter³

et al. 2010

Clim. Res.

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“…We used the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator (Semenov 2008) to generate three synthetic weather records. These records represented temperature conditions observed at Saiq between 1979 and 2008, as well as two climate change scenarios, in which mean monthly minimum and maximum temperatures were elevated by 1 • C and 2 • C, respectively.…”

Section: Present and Future Chilling Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change effects on winter chill for tree crops with chilling requirements on the Arabian Peninsula

2009

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Fruit production systems that rely on winter chill for breaking of dormancy might be vulnerable to climatic change. We investigated decreases in the number of winter chilling hours (0-7.2 • C) in four mountain oases of Oman, a marginal area for the production of fruit trees with chilling requirements. Winter chill was calculated from long-term hourly temperature records. These were generated based on the correlation of hourly temperature measurements in the oases with daylength and daily minimum and maximum temperatures recorded at a nearby weather station. Winter chill was estimated for historic temperature records between 1983 and 2008, as well as for three sets of synthetic 100-year weather records, generated to represent historic conditions, and climatic changes likely to occur within the next 30 years (temperatures elevated by 1 • C and 2 • C). Our analysis detected a decrease in the numbers of chilling hours in high-elevation oases by an average of 1.2-9.5 h/year between 1983 and 2008, a period during which, according to the scenario analysis, winter chill was sufficient for most important species in most years in the highest oasis. In the two climate change scenarios, pomegranates, the most important tree crop, received insufficient chilling in 13% and 75% of years, respectively. While production of most traditional fruit trees is marginal today, with trees barely fulfilling their chilling requirements, such production might become impossible in the near future. Similar developments are likely to affect other fruit production regions around the world.

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“…Several studies [6,[28][29][30][31][32][33] reported that the LARS-WG model was effective in downscaling GCMs outputs. Several studies have reported that the LARS-WG model fits observed air temperature (Tmin and Tmax) [7,23] very well, while its performance in predicting rainfall was reasonable [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Potential Future Climate and Climate Extremes in the Brazos Headwaters Basin, Texas

Awal

Bayabil

Fares

2016

Water

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Texas' fast-growing economy and population, coupled with cycles of droughts due to climate change, are creating an insatiable demand for water and an increasing need to understand the potential impacts of future climates and climate extremes on the state's water resources. The objective of this study was to determine potential future climates and climate extremes; and to assess spatial and temporal changes in precipitation (Prec), and minimum and maximum temperature (Tmin and Tmax, respectively), in the Brazos Headwaters Basin under three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) for three future periods: 2020s (2011-2030), 2055s (2046-2065), and 2090s (2080-2099). Daily gridded climate data obtained from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) were used to downscale outputs from 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs) using the Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model. Results indicate that basin average Tmin and Tmax will increase; however, annual precipitation will decrease for all periods. Annual precipitation will decrease by up to 5.2% and 6.8% in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. However, in some locations in the basin, up to a 14% decrease in precipitation is projected in the 2090s under the A2 (high) emissions scenario. Overall, the northwestern and southern part of the Brazos Headwaters Basin will experience greater decreases in precipitation. Moreover, precipitation indices of the number of wet days (prec ≥ 5 mm) and heavy precipitation days (prec ≥ 10 mm) are projected to slightly decrease for all future periods. On the other hand, Tmin and Tmax will increase by 2 and 3 • C on average in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. Mostly, projected increases in Tmin and Tmax will be in the upper range in the southern and southeastern part of the basin. Temperature indices of frost (Tmin < 0 • C) and ice days (Tmax < 0 • C) are projected to decrease, while tropical nights (Tmin > 20 • C) and summer days (Tmax > 25 • C) are expected to increase. However, while the frequency distribution of meteorological drought shows slight shifts towards the dry range, there was no significant difference between the baseline and projected meteorological drought frequency and severity.

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Simulation of extreme weather events by a stochastic weather generator

Cited by 197 publications

References 40 publications

Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves

Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves

Climate change effects on winter chill for tree crops with chilling requirements on the Arabian Peninsula

Analysis of Potential Future Climate and Climate Extremes in the Brazos Headwaters Basin, Texas

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