Simulation of Extreme Precipitation in Four Climate Regions in China by General Circulation Models (GCMs): Performance and Projections

Zhang, Mengru; Yang, Xiaoli; Ren, Liliang; Pan, Ming; Jiang, Shanhu; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Fei; Fang, Xiuqin

doi:10.3390/w13111509

Cited by 12 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 46 publications

(30 reference statements)

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“…The uncertainties related to climate change impact assessment include the future emission scenarios, climate models, and downscaling methods used. This study showed that the NORESM1-M mode using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios can be applied well in a region of China (Zhang et al 2021). However, there are some other uncertainties that arise when only one climate model is used for such a purpose.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Interactive influence of climate variability and land-use change on blue and green water resources: a case study from the Ganjiang River Basin, China

Yang

Ren

et al. 2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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The response of blue and green water to climate and land-use change in the Ganjiang River Basin (GRB) is evaluated, via the SWAT model that combines three scenarios (the land-use/land-cover (LULC), climate change, and integrated climate and LULC change scenarios) in the 2040s (2031–2050) and 2060s (2051–2070). The results indicate that, for the GRB, cropland, woodland, and grassland show a decreasing trend, while build-up and water areas show an increasing trend in terms of future land-use change. The climatic conditions projected using NORESM1-M model data under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios suggest, respectively, increases in precipitation (31.17 and 27.24 mm), maximum temperature (2.25 and 2.69 °C), and minimum temperature (1.96 and 2.58 °C). Under climate change conditions, blue water is estimated to decrease by up to 16.89 and 21.4 mm under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, while green water is estimated to increase up to 19.14 and 20.22 mm, respectively. Under the LULC changes, blue water is projected to increase by up to 5.50 and 7.57 mm, while green water shows decreases of 4.05 and 7.80 mm for the LULC2035 and LULC2055 scenarios, respectively. Under the four combined LULC and climate change conditions (RCP4.5_2040s, RCP4.5_2060s, RCP8.5_2040s, and RCP8.5_2060s), blue water tends to decrease by 0.67, 7.47, 7.28, and 9.99 mm, while green water increases by 19.24, 20.8, 13.87, and 22.30 mm. The influence of climate variation on blue and green water resources is comparatively higher than that of the integrated impacts of climate and land-use changes. The results of this study offer a scientific reference for the water resources management and planning department responsible for scheduling water resource management plan in the GRB.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Interactive influence of climate variability and land-use change on blue and green water resources: a case study from the Ganjiang River Basin, China

Yang

Ren

et al. 2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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“…With an increase in rainfall intensity, rainfall erosivity is enhanced [23]. Many studies have reported that extreme precipitation events have occurred more frequently and with increasing intensity in recent decades [24,25]. We can infer that with the further increase in extreme precipitation events in the future, the frequency and amount of surface runoff in tea plantations will increase.…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 93%

Nitrogen and phosphorus losses via surface runoff from tea plantations in the mountainous areas of Southwest China

Huang

Zhen

Lu³

et al. 2023

PLoS ONE

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Nowadays, there has been a rapid expansion of tea plantations in the mountainous areas of southwest China. However, little research has focused on the pollution problems caused by the losses of nitrogen and phosphorus from tea plantations in this area. Therefore, a field experiment was conducted using the runoff plots in situ monitoring method following farmers’ conventional management from 2018 to 2020 in Guizhou Province, southwest China. The characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus losses from tea plantation in the mountainous area were clarified, and the effect of rainfall intensity on the nitrogen and phosphorus losses were explored. 298 natural rainfall events with a total rainfall of 2258 mm were observed during the 2-year observation period, and erosive rainfall accounted for 78.1% of the total rainfall. The total surface runoff amount was 72 mm, and the surface runoff coefficient was 3.19%. The total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the surface runoff ranged from 0.68 to 14.86 mg·L−1 and 0.18 to 2.34 mg·L−1, respectively. The TN and TP losses from tea plantations were 1.47 kg N ha−1 yr−1 and 0.210 kg P ha−1 yr−1. Rainfall intensity directly and significantly affected the surface runoff and nitrogen and phosphorus loss. Where 72.6% of the cumulative rainfall, 92.5% of the total surface runoff amounts, 87.4% of total nitrogen loss, and 90.5% of total phosphorus loss were observed in rainfall events above 10 mm. Taken together, the results provide scientific guidance for quantifying the characteristics of nutrient loss in subtropical mountain tea plantations.

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“…Few studies have explored the causes of extreme precipitation from the perspective of land surface processes or thermal anomalies, and there are still many uncertainties in the understanding of land-atmosphere interactions in arid regions. The changes in landatmosphere coupling and coupling mechanisms are very important for accurately predicting future climate (Chen and Zhou 2013;Diro et al, 2014;Zscheischler et al, 2015;Chen et al, 2017;Zhang et al, 2021). The existing method for comprehending and enhancing the Earth-atmosphere system and its variability in climate change prediction continues to have weaknesses in understanding land-atmosphere interactions (Santanello et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land‒atmosphere coupling effects of soil temperature and moisture on extreme precipitation in the arid regions of Northwest China

Wei²,

Li³

et al. 2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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With global warming and more frequent extreme precipitation events in recent years, the phenomenon of warming and humidification in the arid regions of Northwest China (ANWC) has attracted increasing attention. We assessed the coupling effects of soil temperature and moisture on extreme precipitation in the ANWC by using daily precipitation data from CN05.1 and monthly data on soil temperature, soil moisture, and energy from ERA5-land, 1961–2018. After logical partitioning by K-means clustering, the primary influencing routes in each partition were investigated using two indices of extreme precipitation, indicated by precipitation on very wet days (R95P) and the number of extreme precipitation days (R10day). We found that 1) Local extreme precipitation has had a steadily growing impact on overall precipitation. In summer, this impact is primarily driven by an increase in the quantity of extreme precipitation, but in winter, it is primarily driven by an increase in the intensity of single precipitation. 2) The Tianshan Mountains (TM) and Qilian Mountains (QM) are the key locations for the coupling of soil temperature and moisture with the extreme precipitation index. Both locations exhibit a positive coupling state for soil temperature with extreme precipitation with positive coupling in the TM but negative coupling in the QM for soil moisture with extreme precipitation. 3) In the coupling of soil temperature and moisture with energy, the relevant significant regions are almost all over the ANWC throughout the year and all seasons, and the coupling high-value areas are concentrated around the basin. 4) In the TM–Hami Basin (HB)–QM, the coupling between energy and the extreme precipitation index is also stronger. The specific coupling paths have been changing with seasonal and regional changes.

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Simulation of Extreme Precipitation in Four Climate Regions in China by General Circulation Models (GCMs): Performance and Projections

Cited by 12 publications

References 46 publications

Interactive influence of climate variability and land-use change on blue and green water resources: a case study from the Ganjiang River Basin, China

Interactive influence of climate variability and land-use change on blue and green water resources: a case study from the Ganjiang River Basin, China

Nitrogen and phosphorus losses via surface runoff from tea plantations in the mountainous areas of Southwest China

Land‒atmosphere coupling effects of soil temperature and moisture on extreme precipitation in the arid regions of Northwest China

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