Simulation of demand growth scenarios in the Colombian electricity market: An integration of system dynamics and dynamic systems

Morcillo, José D.; Franco, Carlos; Angulo, Fabiola

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.02.104

Cited by 35 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…But, according to the TIAM ECM model, by 2050, almost 75 % of electricity should be generated from wind, about 5 % from solar and only 20 % from hydro. Such an increase in electricity capacity is well explained at [2] and [24] where demand growth by 2050 is expected to double the country installed capacity in 2016.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This includes actions that must be taken in the short and midterm to set in motion the huge infrastructure changes that could allow energy-related emissions to decrease until acceptable levels after 2030, due to big investments in renewable energy facilities, energy efficiency and changes related to transportation technologies. Consequently, Colombia's energy -related emissions are expected to grow in the immediate future until 2030, and then decline through to 2050 [24].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Colombia has a national electric system with relatively low carbon emissions (compared to other countries with the highest participation of fossils fuels in the electricity mix) [23], n ot depending on imported energy, and at the same time with enough existing and developing generation capacity to meet the demand for electricity in the short term (at least for the next 5 years) [2]. There seems not to be strong reasons to boost the development of alternative energy sources, other than the need to reduce GHG emissions, the need to avoid dependence on imported fuels or the pressure to attend to increases in demand through new capacity installed based on domestic resources [24]. At the same time, having abundant fossil resources such as coal and possible deposits of gas and oil not yet exploited, the country does not seem to face the imminent need to turn to unconventional resources and technologies as some other countries do [2].…”

Section: Opportunities and Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Use of Multi-Criteria TOPSIS Analysis to Define a Decarbonization Path in Colombia

Diaz

Cilinskis

2019

Environmental and Climate Technologies

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In the past few years, Colombia has begun to implement new laws according to new global trends, however, carbon dioxide emissions have not decreased despite country commitments according to the Paris agreement and other international treaties. In this paper, a pathway to achieve full decarbonization of the energy system of the country has been analysed using a multi-criteria analysis tool and considering several options from previous studies, evaluating three different abatement scenarios obtained by different models. Then, a Strength, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis is conducted in order to propose a set of environmental policies that aid in seeking greater reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in sectors as agriculture, forestry, land use and transport. This set of measures is then summarized, and their abatement costs and GHG reduction potential are displayed. The outcomes show the country has great potential to exploit its renewable natural resources and indicates how a new electricity mix may not only decrease GHG emissions but also reduce the levelized cost of electricity for the end users.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Opportunities and Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Use of Multi-Criteria TOPSIS Analysis to Define a Decarbonization Path in Colombia

Diaz

Cilinskis

2019

Environmental and Climate Technologies

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“…At present, the most commonly used modelling software for SD is STELLA, Vensim, Ithink, Powersim, etc. [42][43][44][45]. We chose to use Vensim DSS × 64 SD modelling software based on the research purpose and simulation requirements of this study.…”

Section: Sd Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Evolution Response of Ecosystem Cultural Services under Different Scenarios Based on System Dynamics

Zhao

Cuan

et al. 2020

Remote Sensing

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Cultural ecosystem services (CES) are a significant part of the ecosystem and are considered to be a core component of human welfare and ecosystem protection. CES have been historically difficult to quantitatively evaluate because of their subjectivity and intangibility. Additionally, their evolution over time has rarely been explored. Here, we quantitatively evaluated various CES and generated corresponding value index (VI) maps. We then further explored the evolution of CES characteristics over space and time. We selected Xi’an as the study area and applied the Social Values of Ecosystem Services (SolVES) model to evaluate CES and generate three specific VI maps. A system dynamics model based on socioeconomic and survey data of CES for each administrative division was established. Finally, we simulated four developmental scenarios in order to predict potential developmental changes of CES in 2030 under these different scenarios. This study provides a method for evaluating CES and explores the application of system dynamics to different fields. Additionally, our findings may provide guidance for the formulation of regional policies and support missions to improve civilizations within ecological systems, coordinate future economic growth with ecosystem services, and achieve sustainable development.

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“…Several studies were conducted for short or/and longterm electricity demand projection that can be categorized into six types: regression based [29], autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) [30], artificial neural networks [31], fuzzy logic [32], support vector [33], and system dynamics models [34]. The system dynamics approach is able to handle the dynamic evolution of vital energy forecasting variables with feedback loops among each other [35] and allows the incorporation of stochastic behavior [36].…”

Section: Electricity Demand Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Supply optimization based on society’s cost of electricity and a calibrated demand model for future renewable energy transition in Niger

Tilahun¹,

Bhandari²,

Mamo³

2019

Energ Sustain Soc

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Background:In an attempt to realize the most beneficial and optimal mix of electricity generation in Niger, a society's cost of electricity (SCOE) as the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) plus the cost of climate change and air pollution is formulated. The SCOE is used as a basis for setting the performance criteria for supply optimization to balance future electricity demand in Niger. The demand projection is derived from a system dynamics model that anticipates future changes based on its influencing factors of population growth, urbanization progress, and industrial development. Results:Reference case and what-if scenarios are simulated to see the projected electricity demand and possible renewable energy transition pathways. As a result, for example, the annual electricity of 3214 GWh estimated for 2030 might be balanced with about 200 MW, 104 MW, 85 MW, and 63 MW power from hydropower, grid-tied PV, coal, and diesel for SCOE optimized grid. For the same case, a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction of 11.26-15.66% could be achieved when compared to the LCOE-based optimized grid. In addition, the most preferred energy option hydropower will be almost exhausted when the projected electricity demand in 2035 reaches slightly more than double its value in 2025. Thus, Niger should start exploiting its solar as well as conventional sources intensively to balance its future energy demand. Conclusions: In this work, a mixed energy grid is optimized primarily on affordability while considering its sustainability. The implemented holistic approach lessens the need for energy import in the country and provides relief to energy security issues such as electricity price volatility and supply reliability. Additionally, the proposed strategy helps to guide the renewable energy transition pathway in Niger.

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Simulation of demand growth scenarios in the Colombian electricity market: An integration of system dynamics and dynamic systems

Cited by 35 publications

References 30 publications

Use of Multi-Criteria TOPSIS Analysis to Define a Decarbonization Path in Colombia

Use of Multi-Criteria TOPSIS Analysis to Define a Decarbonization Path in Colombia

The Evolution Response of Ecosystem Cultural Services under Different Scenarios Based on System Dynamics

Supply optimization based on society’s cost of electricity and a calibrated demand model for future renewable energy transition in Niger

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