Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

Abstract

For more information on the USGS-the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1-888-ASK-USGS.For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprodTo order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner.Suggested citation: Hunt, R.J., Walker, J.F., Selbig, W.R., Westenbroek, S.M., and Regan, R.S., 2013, Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Water- The terms "altitude" and "elevation," as used in this report, refer to distance above the vertical datum. Simulation of Climate-Change Effects on AbstractAlthough groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Groundwater/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998-2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite.Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate mod...

Linking Climate Change and Groundwater

“…However, higher air temperatures are likely to increase evapotranspiration, which may result in a reduction in runoff and SWC in some regions (Chiew and McMahon 2002). In temperate regions where plants senesce during the winter, groundwater recharge and stream baseflow could be less affected than evapotranspiration would infer due to the seasonal timing of recharge events (e.g., Hunt et al 2013). In seasons of above average precipitation, recharge is likely to increase, and water demand, such as for irrigated agriculture, will decline because of lower temperature and solar radiation and higher humidity in such periods (Rosenberg et al 1999).…”

“…Seasonal streamflow is altered because the snowpack acts as a reservoir for water storage (Barnett et al 2008;Cayan et al 2001;Hunt et al 2013;Mote et al 2005;Stewart et al 2004;Tague et al 2008). For example, Eckhardt and Ulbrich (2003) predicted a smaller proportion of the winter precipitation will fall as snow due to warming trends in mountainous regions of central Europe and that the spring-snowmelt peak will likely be reduced while the flood risk in winter will probably increase.…”

“…Paleoclimate-change conditions and subsequent responses in recharge, discharge, and changes in storage are preserved in the records of groundwater major and traceelement chemistry, stable and radioactive isotope composition, and noble gas content (Bajjali and Abu-Jaber 2001;Castro et al 2007;Hendry and Woodbury 2007). Other important components of hydrogeological systems include groundwater-fed lakes in arid and semiarid regions (Gasse 2000) and temperate climates (Hunt et al 2013), pore-water chemistry of the vadose zone (Zuppi and Sacchi 2004), and subsurface-thermal regimes (Miyakoshi et al 2005;Taniguchi 2002;Taniguchi et al 2008).…”

Interactions of artificial lakes with groundwater applying an integrated MODFLOW solution

“…Natural lakes in contrast to artificial lakes have typically small (<0.5 m) amplitude of seasonal lake stage fluctuations (Ala-aho et al 2015;Hunt et al 2013;Smerdon et al 2007;Taviani and Henriksen 2015), while multi-year climate-driven stage changes (see Virdi et al 2013) may exceptionally reach up to~1 m year −1 . For comparison, in the artificial TL, seasonal amplitude was~5 m, but a stage change of~2.5 m could take place within only 22 days.…”

“…Such a solution was arbitrary, not flexible and often inaccurate because it did not account for water flux variability within each arbitrarily assigned stress period and had an arbitrary assumption of water fluxes, e.g. recharge (Hunt et al 2008). In the proposed methodology, there are no procedural limitations regarding temporal resolution of stress periods and time step lengths, while R g and ET g are calculated internally in the UZF1 Package for each time step together with groundwater exfiltration (Exf gw , sometimes also reffered as surface leakage) based on external driving forces, i.e.…”