Simulation of Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclones with WRF Model: Impact of Initial and Boundary Conditions

Mohanty, U. C.; Osuri, Krishna K.; Routray, Aurobinda; Mohapatra, M.; Pattanayak, Sujata

doi:10.1080/01490419.2010.518061

Cited by 89 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(25 reference statements)

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“…In the second set of experiments known as the 3DVAR, the model IC is improved by insertion of satellite-derived wind observations using the 3DVAR analysis system. According to Mohanty et al (2010), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) FiNaL (FNL) analyses provided as IBCs to the mesoscale (WRF) model are better for prediction of TCs over Indian seas. Therefore, Downloaded by [Northeastern University] at 08:55 03 December 2014 in this study, for CNTL simulation, FNL analyses are used as IBCs for the model.…”

Section: Model Configurationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hence, the global analyses which serve as initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) to mesoscale models (MMs) are ill-defined in representing the initial structure and position of the vortex. According to Mohanty et al (2010), the initial vortex position error in global analyses is about 100 km and further contributes to more track forecast errors. The primary and important task is to reduce the errors in initial conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

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The impact of satellite-derived wind data assimilation on track, intensity and structure of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

Osuri

Mohanty

Routray

et al. 2011

International Journal of Remote Sensing

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In the present satellite era, remote-sensing data are more useful to improve the initial condition of the model and hence the forecast of tropical cyclones (TCs) when they are in the deep oceans, where conventional observations are unavailable. In this study, an attempt is made to assess the impact of remotely sensed satellite-derived winds on initialization and simulation of TCs over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). For this purpose, four TCs, namely, 'Nargis', 'Gonu', 'Sidr' and 'KhaiMuk', are considered, with 13 different initial conditions. Two sets of numerical experiments, with and without satellite-derived wind data assimilation, are conducted using a high-resolution weather research and forecasting (WRF) model.The inclusion of satellite-derived winds through a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system improves the initial position in 11 cases out of 13 by 34%. The 24-, 48-, 72-and 96-hour mean track forecast improves by 28%, 15%, 41% and 47%, respectively, based on 13 cases. The landfall prediction is significantly improved in 11 cases by about 37%. The intensity prediction also improves by 10-20%. Kinematic and thermodynamic structures of TCs are also better explained, as it could simulate heat and momentum exchange between sea surface and upper air. Due to better simulation of structure, intensity and track, the 24-hour accumulated rainfall intensity and distribution are also well predicted with the assimilation of satellite-derived winds.

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Section: Model Configurationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

The impact of satellite-derived wind data assimilation on track, intensity and structure of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

Osuri

Mohanty

Routray

et al. 2011

International Journal of Remote Sensing

Self Cite

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show abstract

“…So the initial conditions may not be able to capture the intensity and location of the initial vortex to give correct forecast of TCs. Importance of accurate initial conditions is studied by Arpe et al (1985), Sanders (1987), Kuo and Reed (1988), Mohanty et al (2010). NWP being an initial value problem, Lorenz (1963) and Pielke (2006) have shown that even a small error in the initial condition (IC) may lead to a large error in the subsequent forecast.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They concluded that 30th April and 1st May initial conditions gives less landfall errors of 85 km and 50 km. Mohanty et al (2010) explored the impact of different sources of initial and boundary conditions on track and intensity of the Bay of Bengal cyclones.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of physical parameterization schemes on track and intensity of cyclone LAILA using WRF model

Kanase

Salvekar

2015

Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci

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The objective of the present study is to investigate in detail the sensitivity of cumulus parameterization (CP), planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization, microphysics parameterization (MP) on the numerical simulation of severe cyclone LAILA over Bay of Bengal using Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model. The initial and boundary conditions are supplied from GFS data of 1 o × 1 o resolution and the model is integrated in three 'twoway' interactive nested domains at resolutions of 60 km, 20 km and 6.6 km. Total three sets of experiments are performed. First set of experiments include sensitivity of Cumulus Parameterization (CP) schemes, while second and third set of experiments is carried out to check the sensitivity of different PBL and Microphysics Parameterization (MP) schemes. The fourth set contains initial condition sensitivity experiments. For first three sets of experiments, 0000 UTC 17 May 2010 is used as initial condition. In CP sensitivity experiments, the track and intensity is well simulated by BettsMiller-Janjic (BMJ) schemes. The track and intensity of LAILA is very sensitive to the representation of large scale environmental flow in CP scheme as well as to the initial vertical wind shear values. The intensity of the cyclone is well simulated by YSU scheme and it depends upon the mixing treatment in and above PBL. Concentration of frozen hydrometeors, such as graupel in WSM6 MP scheme and latent heat released during auto conversion of hydrometeors may be responsible for storm intensity. An additional set of experiments with different initial vortex intensity shows that, small differences in the initial wind fields have profound impact on both track and intensity of the cyclone. The representation of the mid-tropospheric heating in WSM6 is mainly controlled by amount of graupel hydrometeor and thus might be one of the possible causes in modulating the storm's intensity.

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“…Because of lack of sufficient conventional observations over the oceans where TCs form and evolve, the global analyses are ill-defined in representing the initial structure and position of the vortex. According to Mohanty et al (2010), the initial vortex position error in global analyses is about 80 -100 km and further contributes to more track forecast errors. The primary and important task is to reduce the errors in initial conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of Structure, Track and Landfall of Tropical Cyclone Bijli Using WRF-ARW Model

Rayhun

Quadir

Chowdhury

et al. 2015

J Bangladesh Acad Sci

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Simulation of Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclones with WRF Model: Impact of Initial and Boundary Conditions

Cited by 89 publications

References 27 publications

The impact of satellite-derived wind data assimilation on track, intensity and structure of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

The impact of satellite-derived wind data assimilation on track, intensity and structure of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

Effect of physical parameterization schemes on track and intensity of cyclone LAILA using WRF model

Simulation of Structure, Track and Landfall of Tropical Cyclone Bijli Using WRF-ARW Model

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