Simulation Modelling of the Spread of Rice Tungro Virus Disease: The Potential for Management by Roguing

Holt, J.; Chancellor, T.

doi:10.2307/2404674

Cited by 37 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 6 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Virus epidemics were simulated based mostly on vector population dynamics and weather (Gutierrez et al ., 1974; Frazer, 1977; Kiritani & Sasaba, 1978; Irwin et al ., 2000). Although explicit process‐based computer models continue to be developed for virus epidemics (Ruesink & Irwin, 1986; Irwin & Kampmeier, 1989; Morgan, 1990; Head & Morgan, 1996; Holt & Chancellor, 1996; Bertschinger, 1997), there has been recent interest in the types of mathematical model used in human and animal epidemiology (Anderson & May, 1979; May & Anderson, 1979). These are relatively simple in structure, based on linked differential equations describing the different categories of disease, such as the Susceptible‐Exposed‐Infections‐Removed or SEIR model (Chan & Jeger, 1994), but can deal with and predict a wide range of epidemic outcomes.…”

Section: Quantitative Approaches In Plant Virus Epidemiologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Vector control through insecticides is often ineffective (Perring et al ., 1999; Satapathy, 1998). The use of cultural controls, such as roguing or removal of diseased plants, has been practised and can contain disease rather than eradicate it completely (Fishman et al ., 1983; Thresh, 1988; Jeger & Thresh, 1993; Chan & Jeger, 1994; Holt & Chancellor, 1996). It can be argued that the main reason why so few control options are available and why globally major virus problems continue to emerge – such as the whitefly‐transmitted begomoviruses (Brown, 2000) – is the lack of co‐ordinated collaboration between researchers of different disciplinary backgrounds.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Epidemiology of insect‐transmitted plant viruses: modelling disease dynamics and control interventions

Jeger

Holt

Bosch

et al. 2004

Physiological Entomology

Self Cite

193

150

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Plant viruses are an important constraint to crop production world‐wide. Rarely have plant virologists, vector entomologists and crop specialists worked together in search of sustainable management practices for viral diseases. Historically, modelling approaches have been vector‐based dealing with empirical forecasting systems or simulation of vector population dynamics. More recently, epidemiological models, such as those used in human/animal epidemiology, have been introduced in an attempt to characterize and analyse the population ecology of viral diseases. The theoretical bases for these models and their use in evaluating control strategies in terms of the interactions between host, virus and vector are considered here. Vector activity and behaviour, especially in relation to virus transmission, are important determinants of the rate and extent of epidemic development. The applicability and flexibility of these models are illustrated by reference to specific case studies, including the increasing importance of whitefly‐transmitted viruses. Some outstanding research and methodological issues are considered.

show abstract

Section: Quantitative Approaches In Plant Virus Epidemiologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiology of insect‐transmitted plant viruses: modelling disease dynamics and control interventions

Jeger

Holt

Bosch

et al. 2004

Physiological Entomology

Self Cite

193

150

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Although our specific focus and the comments above pertain to HLB, it is important to note that there is a considerable literature using spatially explicit models of transmission of plant pathogens incorporating both compartment models (7) (SI Appendix, refs. 10-14) and agent-based models (8,9).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Asymptomatic spread of huanglongbing and implications for disease control

Lee

Halbert

Dawson

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

180

132

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Huanglongbing (HLB) is a bacterial infection of citrus trees transmitted by the Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri. Mitigation of HLB has focused on spraying of insecticides to reduce the psyllid population and removal of trees when they first show symptoms of the disease. These interventions have been only marginally effective, because symptoms of HLB do not appear on leaves for months to years after initial infection. Limited knowledge about disease spread during the asymptomatic phase is exemplified by the heretofore unknown length of time from initial infection of newly developing cluster of young leaves, called flush, by adult psyllids until the flush become infectious. We present experimental evidence showing that young flush become infectious within 15 d after receiving an inoculum of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (bacteria). Using this critical fact, we specify a microsimulation model of asymptomatic disease spread and intensity in a grove of citrus trees. We apply a range of psyllid introduction scenarios to show that entire groves can become infected with up to 12,000 psyllids per tree in less than 1 y, before most of the trees show any symptoms. We also show that intervention strategies that reduce the psyllid population by 75% during the flushing periods can delay infection of a full grove, and thereby reduce the amount of insecticide used throughout a year. This result implies that psyllid surveillance and control, using a variety of recently available technologies, should be used from the initial detection of invasion and throughout the asymptomatic period.asymptomatic huanglongbing | latent period | transmission model | control strategies T he main symptoms of huanglongbing (HLB) in citrus trees are yellow shoots, leaves with blotchy mottle, and small lopsided fruits. Ultimately, infected branches die back and the tree dies. The putative causal agent of HLB is an alpha-proteobacterium, Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (Ca. Las), that resides within the phloem and is transmitted by the Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama. The highest concentrations of Ca. Las in infected trees are in the stem and midribs of flush. The flush is a newly developing cluster of very young leaves on the expanding end of a terminal shoot. The bacterium multiplies in both the psyllids and the trees, but the psyllids are essential for the spread of the disease.The dominant control measure currently in use is the combination of insecticidal spraying to limit the psyllid populations and removal of infected trees, an inoculum source, when they are symptomatic. This strategy has had only marginal effect because symptoms appear anywhere from months to years after an initial infection, long after the trees have been active in the transmission process (1). Presymptomatic trees can serve as a source of inoculum for psyllids, but the length of time from initial infection of a tree until it is infective as a source of inoculum is known from experimental measurements only to within coarse bounds (within 60 d) (1). A...

show abstract

“…In spatial models of plant virus disease spread, the individual host plant has usually been taken as the spatial unit (e.g. Ferris & Berger, 1993; Holt & Chancellor, 1996). This was also the case with the BBTD simulation model of Allen (1987).…”

Section: Epidemiological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative epidemiology of Banana Bunchy Top Virus Disease and its control

et al. 1998

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Models of a banana bunchy top virus disease epidemic were developed to incorporate the two key features of an epidemic in a plantation in the Philippines: an exponential increase in disease incidence over 10 years, and a declining gradient of incidence from the outside edge of the plantation to the centre. A non-spatial model consisted of three difference equations to describe the numbers of latently infected and of infectious plants in the plantation and the size of the inoculum source outside the plantation. In a spatial model the outside portion of the plantation was divided into eight blocks running parallel to the outside edge. The dispersal gradient of the inoculum was assumed to be negative exponential. Analysis of the two models showed that for disease incidence to increase exponentially over time, the rate of disease progress could be dependent either on internal spread and roguing rate (proportion of diseased plants removed and replaced per unit time) or on the rate of increase of external inoculum pressure. The observed incidence gradient from the edge to the centre of the plot could be explained only if external inoculum dominated the parameters in the spatial model. This model was also used to explore a variable roguing rate across blocks. Simulations indicated that this may produce small gains over the adoption of a constant roguing rate over all blocks, but was risky because a shift of roguing emphasis only slightly too far towards the outside blocks can result in a dramatic increase in disease.

show abstract

Simulation Modelling of the Spread of Rice Tungro Virus Disease: The Potential for Management by Roguing

Cited by 37 publications

References 6 publications

Epidemiology of insect‐transmitted plant viruses: modelling disease dynamics and control interventions

Epidemiology of insect‐transmitted plant viruses: modelling disease dynamics and control interventions

Asymptomatic spread of huanglongbing and implications for disease control

Quantitative epidemiology of Banana Bunchy Top Virus Disease and its control

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About