Simulation modeling to derive the value-of-information for risky animal disease-import decisions

Disney, W. Terry; Peters, Mark

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2003.07.001

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Krieger & Hoehn (1999) use value of information to measure sport anglers' willingness to pay for information on chemical residue in fish. Additional references include studies on animal behavior (Koops, 2004) and investigating the risk of imported animal diseases (Disney & Peters, 2003). Disney & Peters (2003) reference a number of applications in both the veterinary and agricultural sectors.…”

Section: Stochastic Decision Making Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additional references include studies on animal behavior (Koops, 2004) and investigating the risk of imported animal diseases (Disney & Peters, 2003). Disney & Peters (2003) reference a number of applications in both the veterinary and agricultural sectors. Agricultural studies include Meza & Wilks (2004); Minasny & McBratney (2002);Mitchell (2003).…”

Section: Stochastic Decision Making Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Utilizing a Value of Information Framework to Improve Ore Collection and Classification Procedures

Phillips

2009

The Engineering Economist

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Public reporting burden tor this collection ot intormation is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including tee time tor reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and ABSTRACTOne of the major objectives associated with mining is to deliver an expected amount of product to customers on time. Uncertainties inherent to mining can make this goal difficult to meet. In this research we focus on uncertainty in meeting production targets, specifically at the Loussavaara-Kiirunavarra Aktiebolag (LKAB) company's Kiruna iron ore mine. Uncertainty in ore grade quality is one of the major contributors to the difficulty in meeting production targets. We use a value of information framework (VOI) to consider the economic feasibility of a mine purchasing additional information on extracted ore type to reduce the uncertainty of extracted ore grade quality.The Kiruna mine extracts three ore types during its mining operations. Phosphorus and potassium are the main contaminants of the ore. The first part of this research identifies the existence of different types of ore misclassifications using a database containing ore extraction records from the Kiruna mine. The second part focuses on using these identified misclassification errors and a Kiruna cost model to quantify the cost of the misclassification errors to the Kiruna mine. We assume the principal cost of the errors is reflected in the under-utilization of the ore processing mills.Utilizing a VOI framework, we examine the feasibility of purchasing a laserinduced fluorescence (LIF) analyzer as a source of additional information on extracted ore quality for the Kiruna mine. We find, given certain assumptions, that it is beneficial to the mine to purchase 10 LIFs (one for each production area). Depending on the accuracy of the LIF analyzer, the net benefit of the additional information on ore iii grade quality to the mine ranges from $2.7M to $116M per year.iv ABSTRACT One of the major objectives associated with mining is to deliver an expected amount of product to customers on time. Uncertainties inherent to mining can make this goal difficult to meet. In this research we focus on uncertainty in meeting production targets, specifically at the Loussavaara-Kiirunavarra Aktiebolag (LKAB) company's Kiruna iron ore mine. Uncertainty in ore grade quality is one of the major contributors to the difficulty in meeting production targets. We use a value of information framework (VOI) to consider the economic feasibility of a mine purchasing additional information on extracted ore type to reduce the uncertainty of extracted ore grade quality.The Kiruna mine extrac...

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Section: Stochastic Decision Making Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Stochastic Decision Making Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Utilizing a Value of Information Framework to Improve Ore Collection and Classification Procedures

Phillips

2009

The Engineering Economist

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“…Schoenbaum & Disney (2003) used Monte Carlo methods to model alternative mitigation strategies for a hypothetical outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the USA. Disney & Peters (2003) used Monte Carlo simulation modelling to derive the value of information for risky disease import decisions. An advantage of using some of the software Table 6.…”

Section: Papillomatous Digital Dermatitismentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic impacts of reduced milk production associated with papillomatous digital dermatitis in dairy cows in the USA

Losinger

2006

Journal of Dairy Research

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The goal of this study was to measure the economic impacts of reduced milk production associated with papillomatous digital dermatitis (PDD) in dairy cows in the USA, and of specific risk factors for PDD, in 1996. The method applied was an economic-welfare analysis of producer and consumer surplus, with the GUM Workbench used to analyse uncertainties in the measurements. Reduced milk production associated with PDD was found to reduce consumer surplus by Dollars 750 million +/- Dollars 580 million, and to increase the economic surplus of producers by Dollars 560 million +/- Dollars 470 million, with a net economic loss of Dollars 190 million +/- Dollars 130 million. An examination of the economic effects of specific epidemiologic risk factors for PDD showed that having dairy cows that were not born on the operation had important economic consequences associated with the disease, as did the type of land to which dairy cows had access during the winter months and the type of flooring on which cows walked. Washing hoof-trimming equipment between cows was an important biosecurity measure that was associated with reduced PDD. The epidemiologic model used also implicated hoof trimmers who trimmed cattle hooves on other operations as having an important economic impact associated with this disease, although this finding may have been erroneous.

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“…Diante da importância de adoção de medidas que aumentem a segurança nos métodos de importação, com vistas à prevenção do ingresso de enfermidades de animais exóticas, e do conhecimento e monitoramento das rotas de trânsito de animais e de seus produtos (DISNEY; PETERS, 2003;VELTHUIS;MOURITS, 2007), fica evidente a necessidade de uma análise técnico-científica dos processos estabelecidos para o ingresso de produtos agropecuários no país, incluindo os produtos de origem animal e insumos pecuários, considerando a procedência e o status zoossanitário do país de origem dessas cargas.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

<b>Avaliação das condições higienicossanitárias e análise de parâmetros microbiológicos e físico-químicos do pescado importado no Porto de Santos/SP</b>

Castro¹

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Especialmente aos meus pais, por todo o apoio e dedicação na minha criação e formação.A Deus por minha saúde e por oportunidades incríveis como esta.Ao meu irmão Rafael pela amizade e companheirismo.Aos familiares e amigos, sempre presentes e reconfortantes. Aos colegas de trabalho Marcos Eielsen e Claúdia Valéria Cordeiro de Sá, por tornarem as coletas e análises possíveis, assim como, agradeço aos demais colegas da CGAL/MAPA e da Coordenação Geral do VIGIAGRO/MAPA. Ao colega e grande profissional Werner Martins, por todo aprendizado e apoio. A toda equipe do Departamento de Medicina Veterinária Preventiva e Saúde Animal da FMVZ-USP, por me acolherem como mestrando, em especial ao colega Danival, Cris Paick e Sandra A. Sanches. A minha querida namorada, pela paciência, suporte e apoio durante esse período de dedicação. Aos colegas e amigos do Serviço de Vigilância Agropecuária Internacional do Porto de Santos/SP, pelo bom convívio e aprendizado diário. A Profa. Dra. Simone de Carvalho Balian, pela orientação, aprendizado, oportunidade, confiança, paciência e principalmente, por ter me dado esta oportunidade única. Eternamente grato. Exemplo de pessoa e profissional. 100,0% de conformidade com a legislação vigente. Nos produtos salgados refrigerados, as análises microbiológicas para pesquisa de Salmonella spp em 25 gramas, contagem deStaphylococcus coagulase positiva e contagem de coliformes termotolerantes a 45 0 C também indicaram 100,0% de conformidade com a legislação vigente. Por outro lado, 100,0% das análises físico-química de umidade e 44,4% das análises físico-químicas para resíduo mineral fixo no pescado salgado resfriado estavam com valores acima da legislação vigente. Todos os produtos apresentaram documentação obrigatória e rótulo de acordo com a legislação vigente. Conclusão -Embora os resultados das análises microbiológicas tenham demonstrado que os produtos estivessem próprios para o consumo, as análises físico-químicas, em específico os parâmetros referentes a umidade no pescado salgado refrigerado, não estavam de acordo com os valores determinados pela legislação vigente. A legislação sanitária vigente para importação de pescados, assim como a metodologia de inspeção e fiscalização desses produtos, se mostrou eficiente comparado aos resultados laboratoriais encontrados, com possibilidade de inclusão de novas ferramentas e análises laboratoriais visando garantir, ainda mais, as condições higiênicossanitárias e segurança alimentar. Palavras-chave: Pescado. Qualidade. Condições higienicossanitárias. Físico-químicas. Microbiológicas. ABSTRACT CASTRO, A. P. P. de. Evaluation of hygienic sanitary conditions and analysis of microbiological and physico-chemical parameters of imported fish in the Santos/SP port. [Avaliação das condições higienicossanitárias e análise de parâmetros microbiológicos e físico-químicos do pescado importado no Porto de Santos/SP]. 2016. 72 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Ciências) -Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, 2016. Introduct...

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Simulation modeling to derive the value-of-information for risky animal disease-import decisions

Cited by 5 publications

References 12 publications

Utilizing a Value of Information Framework to Improve Ore Collection and Classification Procedures

Utilizing a Value of Information Framework to Improve Ore Collection and Classification Procedures

Economic impacts of reduced milk production associated with papillomatous digital dermatitis in dairy cows in the USA

<b>Avaliação das condições higienicossanitárias e análise de parâmetros microbiológicos e físico-químicos do pescado importado no Porto de Santos/SP</b>

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