Simulation modeling accounts for uncertainty while quantifying ecological effects of development alternatives

Abstract

Wildlife management often involves trade-offs between protecting species and allowing human activities and development. Ideally, these decisions are guided by scientific studies that quantify the impacts of proposed actions on the environment. However, critical information to assess impacts of proposed activities may be lacking, such as certainty in where actions will take place, which may hinder a robust impact assessment. To address this issue, we present the Development Impacts Analysis (DIA), which employs Monte Carlo simulation modeling to quantify the environmental consequences of proposed development scenarios, while accounting for uncertainty in the exact location of future development. We applied the DIA to five proposed oil leasing management scenarios under a revised management plan for the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. For each management scenario with differing levels of proposed development ("alternatives"), oil production pads and roads were randomly simulated in proportion to estimated undiscovered oil and following alternative-specific restrictions. We assessed habitat displacement for two caribou (Rangifer tarandus) herds, eight shorebird species, and black brant (Branta bernicla) based on reported responses to development, repeating the process 100 times for each alternative. Some habitat loss was reported for each proposed alternative, but the amount of impact varied by alternative and species. One caribou herd and most bird species indicated greatest effects in the alternative with the least restrictions on development and lesser impacts under more protective alternatives. Our results emphasized the importance of considering spatial variation in development effects and species-specific differences when evaluating management proposals. The DIA quantified potential impacts on a suite of species under proposed management alternatives, while accounting for uncertainty in where development will occur and providing confidence intervals on estimated impacts. This illustrates that uncertainty need not preclude management decisions about establishment of broad land use restrictions prior to submission of project-level proposals but can instead be explicitly incorporated into decision making. While no single management approach will likely benefit all species, use of tools such as the DIA allows managers to quantify trade-offs among species and pursue approaches that balance the needs of various taxa and other management objectives.

Effects of vehicle traffic on space use and road crossings of caribou in the Arctic

“…Information on the influence of human activity on wildlife can be important for identifying mitigation strategies (Northrup et al, 2012) and is of particular interest in the Alaskan Arctic as global energy needs are spurring new development projects (Fullman, Sullender, et al, 2021; Russell et al, 2021). For example, on federal lands on the North Slope of Alaska, recent environmental planning documents require vehicle use plans for new development projects (BLM, 2019, 2020a, 2020b), which our results can help inform.…”

“…Interest in expanding energy development in the Arctic is raising concerns about the potential effects on wildlife, particularly barren‐ground caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ; Fullman, Sullender, et al, 2021; Russell et al, 2021). These migratory caribou are ecologically important as the primary large herbivore in the Arctic, but they are also important culturally, recreationally, and as a key subsistence food resource for Indigenous and rural people (Fall, 2016; Titus et al, 2009).…”