Simulation Model of Evacuation Behavior in Large-Scale Earthquake Considering Various States and Attributes of People in Large City

Osaragi, Toshihiro; Morisawa, Takayuki

doi:10.3130/aija.76.389

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Some studies also include the cost of prepositioning resources at this stage [25,26]. Usually, the (weighted) number of shelters, which can also be regarded as the cost of establishing new shelters, is used as a constraint [16] or a minimization objective due to budget limitations [14,23,24]. In the post-disaster phase, the main objective is to quickly relocate as many people as possible to safe places, which can be further decomposed into two sub-goals: (1) Transferring people to shelters or other facilities as soon as possible, and (2) minimizing the number of people remaining in hazardous areas when shelter capacities are limited and cannot fulfill all demands [16].…”

Section: Objective Of Shelter Location-allocation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To address potential fire hazards in areas with a dense distribution of wooden structures after an earthquake, a two-phase evacuation flow is proposed to allocate evacuees between these hierarchical shelters. Compared to a direct evacuation plan, the two-phase evacuation flow is expected to significantly reduce casualties by evacuating the population to MSs, which protect people from fire spreading when a fire occurs near LSs [14]. Although fire is dangerous in many cities, most current research does not discuss this two-phase evacuation and may fail to generate a safety evacuation plan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-Objective Evcuation Planning Model Considering Post-Earthquake Fire Spread: A Tokyo Case Study

Tang,

Osaragi

2024

Sustainability

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As an integral part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is essential for human safety and city sustainability. In recent years, natural disasters, which have had a tremendous negative impact on economic and social development, have frequently occurred in cities. As one of these devastating disasters, earthquakes can severely damage the achievements of urban development and impact the sustainable development of cities. To prepare for potential large earthquakes in the future, efficient evacuation plans need to be developed to enhance evacuation efficiency and minimize casualties. Most previous research focuses on minimization of distance or cost while ignoring risk factors. We propose a multi-objective optimization model with the goal of reducing the risk during the evacuation process, which is called the risk reduction model (RRM). Problem-specific indicators for screening optimal solutions are introduced. The research selects the Ogu area in Tokyo as a case study, where there is a relatively high density of wooden structures, increasing the risks of building collapse and fire spread after an earthquake, and is based on a two-phase evacuation flow that considers secondary evacuation for fire response. The results indicate that, in this case, RRM can, in most situations, reduce the risk level during the evacuation process and improve evacuation efficiency and success rate without significantly increasing the total evacuation distance. It proves to be superior to the traditional distance minimization model (DMM), which prioritizes minimizing the total distance as the objective function.

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Section: Objective Of Shelter Location-allocation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Objective Evcuation Planning Model Considering Post-Earthquake Fire Spread: A Tokyo Case Study

Tang,

Osaragi

2024

Sustainability

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Evaluation of the Visibility of Color Representation for Cell-Based Evacuation Guidance Simulation

Naka

Izumi

Kitamura

et al. 2019

Transactions on Engineering Technologies

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Development of the Training Tool “KUG” for Temporary Lodging Facilities and Companies for Stranded Commuters

Hiroi¹,

Miyata²,

Shindo³

et al. 2021

JDR

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In order to restrain stranded commuters from returning home en masse in the event of an earthquake, in recent years in large cities across Japan, it has been necessary to encourage stranded commuters, who have no place to go to, to remain on their company premises or stay in temporary lodging facilities. However, specific plans and systems that provide appropriate accommodation for stranded commuters vary greatly depending on the state of the disaster, the characteristics of the facilities, and the affected region. Considering the issue of responsibility, it is difficult for business operators to permit stranded commuters to stay. Therefore, local governments have been making efforts to regard their offices as temporary lodging facilities through agreements and setting up a subsidy system for stockpiling. However, they have not yet made progress in securing temporary lodging facilities, nor in the preparations for restraining small and medium-sized enterprise workers from simultaneously returning home in large numbers. To address this issue, this study developed a training tool on the map with which offices can consider the stay and acceptance of stranded commuters and evaluated its usefulness through a workshop and a questionnaire survey.

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Simulation Model of Evacuation Behavior in Large-Scale Earthquake Considering Various States and Attributes of People in Large City

Cited by 4 publications

References 10 publications

Multi-Objective Evcuation Planning Model Considering Post-Earthquake Fire Spread: A Tokyo Case Study

Multi-Objective Evcuation Planning Model Considering Post-Earthquake Fire Spread: A Tokyo Case Study

Evaluation of the Visibility of Color Representation for Cell-Based Evacuation Guidance Simulation

Development of the Training Tool “KUG” for Temporary Lodging Facilities and Companies for Stranded Commuters

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