Simulation Model for Assessing High-Temperature Stress on Rice

Abstract

Rice is a staple grain crop extensively cultivated in Fujian Province, China. This study examined the impact of high-temperature stress on rice yield and its components, focusing on four representative rice varieties, including early and middle rice grown in Fujian Province. Results indicate significant yield losses, with the most severe reduction of 60.8% observed during the flowering stage of early rice and over 40% during the meiosis and flowering stages of middle rice. High-temperature stress primarily affects early rice yield more at the flowering stage than at the grain-filling stage, whereas in middle rice, it is more severe at the meiosis stage than at the flowering stage. Leveraging historical climatic data spanning the past 20 years, a simulation model for high-temperature stress on rice yield was developed to assess disaster-induced yield loss rates, aiming to enhance prevention and disaster damage assessment for rice under high-temperature stress. Application of the model to four rice planting sites in Fujian Province revealed contrasting temporal changes between loss rates and meteorological yield, with middle rice experiencing more severe damage than early rice. The model’s effectiveness is validated by the strong correspondence between yield loss rate and meteorological yield across different regions, highlighting its robust simulation capabilities.