Simulation Method of Port Petrochemical Industry Throughput Development under the Background of Integration of Port, Industry and City

Abstract

In order to accurately predict the changes in the throughput of port petrochemical products and facilitate the formulation of relative decisions, this paper analyzes the factors affecting the throughput of port petrochemical products in a city through the GRA method. After sorting and selection, PCA method is used for pretreatment. In the SVM algorithm, ICSO is used to obtain the best parameters and improve the prediction accuracy and efficiency. In view of the variability of future development, three development scenarios are set up to prepare for the throughput forecast of petrochemical products in a city's port. The results show that the optimization speed of ICSO algorithm is very fast. When the training iteration is 20, the best fitness value is obtained, which is 0.0572. The training effect of ICSO-SVM algorithm is good, the gap between it and the original data is small, and the overall trend is close to the original data. In the test prediction, ICSO-SVM algorithm has the best prediction effect, and its MAE, RMSE and MAPE are the smallest. The minimum MAE is 762.2, 477.0 smaller than CSO-SVM algorithm, and the latter's MAE is 1239.2. The minimum MAPE of the proposed algorithm is 1.05%, while that of CSO-SVM algorithm is 1.71%. In general, the prediction error of ICSO-SVM algorithm is smaller. After the prediction of different development scenarios, the throughput of petrochemical products in a port of a city shows an increasing trend in the next five years. This method can be applied to the development forecast of port petrochemical products and provide reference for decision-making.