Simulation for Evaluating Long-term Maintenance Plans for Complex Systems

Abstract

The optimisation of maintenance plans for complex systems involving many components is not an easy problem. Analytical and mathematical models are possible, but often need to make significant assumptions and are unable to look at the distribution of costs and failures. This paper discusses a project in which a discrete-time simulation model was added onto an existing optimisation model in order to go beyond just estimating the mean performance and give a better picture of the risk and variability involved with potential maintenance plans.