Simulation for Crisis Management

Havron, M. Dean; Blanton, Robert L

doi:10.21236/ada036987

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…*** Place Figure 1 about Here *** We approach the analysis using a combination of empirical and computational analysis. Researchers in the crisis management field have often turned to computational models due to the complexity of the situations they are trying to understand (Havron and Blanton 1977;Rolfe, Saunders and Powell 1998;Rosenthal and Pijnenburg 1991;Walker 1995). The models employed have provided new insights into various issues of crisis management, and have largely been based n operations research and game theory approaches.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Organizational Design and Adaptation in Response to Crises: Theory and Practice.

Lin¹,

Carley²

2001

AMPROC

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Organizations are occasionally faced with technologically based and accident triggered crises that can be extremely costly. An example is Bhopal, a major chemical spill. In the aftermath of such a disaster, organizations, both the one that suffered and others in the same or similar industries, often reexamine how they are structured. The questions arise: how should organizations be designed if they are to perform well in such crises, and would organizations benefit from structural changes during crises?We address these questions using a combination of computational analysis and archival data on 69 real organizations faced with crises. For each crisis incident, we contrast the organization's predicted and actual performance in a crisis situation. We find a high level of validation for the computational model.Using the validated computational model we then go on to address the hypothetical question: what is likely to have happened if the real organization had responded differently to the crisis. The findings show that there is no guarantee that a well performing organization in a general situation will continue to do so during a crisis situation. In addition, how to design or restructure an organization to mitigate the impact of crises will depend on the various design factors the organization employs. This work further demonstrates that often, the lessons learned by organizations when responding to crisis situations may be exactly the wrong lessons.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%