Simulation-Based Estimation of Collision Risk During Ship Maneuvering in Two-Lane Canal Using Mathematical Maneuvering Group Model and Automatic Identification System Data

Abstract

This paper proposes a simulation-based method to estimate collision risk for a ship operating in a two-lane canal. According to rule 9 of the Colreg-72 navigation rules, in a narrow canal, a vessel shall keep as near to the wall that lies on its starboard side. However, a busy harbor entered through a narrow canal still presents impact hazards. Certain conditions in a two-lane canal, such as a head-on situation in the straight part of the canal during an overtaking maneuver and large curvature of a turning maneuver in the bend part of the canal, could lead to accidents. In the first condition, the ship alters its own course to the port side to overtake another ship in the same lane but the course altered is too large and hits the wall of the canal. In the second condition, the target ship may take an excessively large turn on the bend part of the canal, causing collision with the ship on the opposite lane. Collision risk is represented as the risk of damage to the ship structure and includes the probability of impact accident and severity of structural damage. Predictions of collision probabilities in a two-lane canal have been developed based on a simulation of ship maneuvering using a mathematical maneuvering group (MMG) model and automatic identification system (AIS) data. First, the propeller revolution and rudder angle of the subject ship are simulated to determine safe trajectories in both parts of the canal. Second, impact accidents are simulated for both conditions. The ship’s speed, and current and wind velocity are randomly simulated based on the distribution of the AIS and environment data for the research area. The structural consequences of the impact accident are measured as collision energy losses, based on the external dynamics of ship collision. The research area of the two-lane canal is located at the Madura Strait between the Java and Madura islands in East Java of Indonesia, as shown by the red line in Figure 1. A project for developing a new port and dredging a new two-lane canal to facilitate an increase in the number of ship calls is currently underway in the research area. Figure 1 shows the ships’ trajectories plotted using the AIS data as on January 1, 2011. The trajectories are mostly seen to be coming out of the canal, confirming that it is shallow and needs to be dredged.

A review of ship collision risk assessment, hotspot detection and path planning for maritime traffic control in restricted waters

“…Also, there may be indirect impacts derived from ship collision accidents, for example, collision leading to an oil spill, the oil spill causing pollution in an aquaculture area and the polluted aquatic products subsequently affecting the health of humans. The real consequences are very hard to determine, and some of them use the simplified method to present the associated consequence, such as adopting the amount of oil spilt to represent the environmental consequences of tanker collisions (Pedersen, 1995), the total amount of energy loss (Asmara et al, 2014) or the damage penetration area of ships and repair costs (Dong and Frangopol, 2015), to characterise the potential consequence. Current consequence assessment is often based on the ship's structural response model (Ståhlberg et al, 2013) and qualitative methods with the linguistic state, such as the fuzzy model (Zaman et al, 2014) and Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) .…”

“…The ship domain is highly connected with the expert knowledge, for example, the choice of surveyed crew, and leads to subjectivity. In terms of collision diameter, conducted a detailed review for the research before 2012, and it is easy to see that a new model has rarely been proposed since 2013 but extensive applications have been performed (Weng et al, 2012;Silveira et al, 2013;Asmara et al, 2014), such as the traffic characteristics based on Pedersen's model (Silveira et al, 2013) or Kristiansen's method (Asmara et al, 2014) and integrating AIS data, as well as potential intersections between routes estimation (Christian and Kang, 2017). The synergetic ship collision risk function definition integrating manoeuvrability variables can be applied to measure the vessel collision risk.…”

Implementation of Android-Based AIS and MMG Model for Safety Analysis of Small Coastal Fishing Vessel

“…However, AIS data in Indonesia has not yet covered the fishing vessels with the capacity of less than 30 GT. Estimation of collision risk using AIS data and MMG modle has been introduced by the author [4]. In this paper, a system to derive AIS data on the small coastal fishing vessels is implemented and the usage of the data on the evaluation of maneuverability and the assesment of safety is introduced.…”

Experimental Study on Automatic Control for Collision Avoidance of Ships

“…As the forces and moments act on ship hull are separately calculated [7], application of automatic control system on MMG model can be easily developed. Application of automatic control in MMG model based on AIS data has been developed for prediction of collision risk of ship [8]. The formula for estimating each component of forces and moments act on ship hull has been developed by some authors [9,10].…”