Simulation and construction of the glacier mass balance in the Manas River Basin, Tianshan, China from 2000 to 2016

Zhao, Guining; Zhang, Zhengyong; Li, Lin; Li, Zhongqin; Wang, Puyu; Xu, Lei

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1766-z

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…It can be seen that about 90% of glaciers were mainly distributed in high altitude areas, which was consistent with the results obtained on the spatial distribution pattern of glaciers in China [49]. The potential distribution of the glacier area showed obvious vertical zonality, which might be caused by the significant differences in the environmental factors at different altitudes [50,51]. In terms of the potential distribution of glaciers in various directions (Figure 4), The glacier area in the northeast of Tianshan Mountains in China was the largest, followed by the north, and the west and south were smaller, accounting for about 16% of the total glacier area.…”

Section: Figuresupporting

confidence: 89%

Simulation of the Potential Distribution of the Glacier Based on Maximum Entropy Model in the Tianshan Mountains, China

Wang

Zhang

Liu

et al. 2021

Water

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Under the background of global climate change, the variation in the spatial distribution and ice volume of mountain glaciers have a profound influence on regional economic development and ecological security. The development of glaciers is like biological succession; when climate change approaches or exceeds the threshold of suitable conditions for glacier development, it will lead to changes in potential distribution pattern. Therefore, from the perspective of the "biological" characteristics of glaciers, it is a beneficial exploration and attempt in the field of glaciology to explore its potential distribution law with the help of the niche model. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) can explain the environmental conditions suitable for the survival of things by analyzing the mathematical characteristics and distribution laws of samples in space. According to glacier samples and the geographical environment data screened by correlation analysis and iterative calculation, the potential distribution pattern of Tianshan glaciers in China in reference years (1970–2000) was simulated by MaxEnt. This paper describes the contribution of geographical environmental factors to distribution of glaciers in Tianshan Mountains, quantifies the threshold range of factors affecting the suitable habitat of glaciers, and predicts the area variation and distribution pattern of glaciers under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) in the future (2040–2060, 2080–2100). The results show that the MaxEnt model has good adaptability to simulate the distribution of glaciers. The spatial heterogeneity of potential distribution of glaciers is caused by the spatio-temporal differences of hydrothermal combination and topographic conditions. Among the environmental variables, precipitation during the wettest month, altitude, annual mean temperature, and temperature seasonality have more significant effects on the potential distribution of glaciers. There is significant spatial heterogeneity in the potential distribution of glaciers in different watersheds, altitudes, and aspects. From the forecast results of glacier in various climatic scenarios in the future, about 18.16–27.62% of the total reference year glacier area are in an alternating change of melting and accumulation, among which few glaciers are increasing, but this has not changed the overall retreat trend of glaciers in the study area. Under the low emission scenario, the glacier area of the Tianshan Mountains in China decreased by 18.18% and 23.73% respectively in the middle and end of the 21st century compared with the reference years and decreased by 20.04% and 27.63%, respectively, under the high emission scenario, which showed that the extent of glacier retreat is more intense under the high emission scenario. Our study offers momentous theoretical value and practical significance for enriching and expanding the theories and analytical methods of the glacier change.

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Section: Figuresupporting

confidence: 89%

Simulation of the Potential Distribution of the Glacier Based on Maximum Entropy Model in the Tianshan Mountains, China

Wang

Zhang

Liu

et al. 2021

Water

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“…Remote sensing data can solve the problem of spatial continuity, but its resolution limits the precise and objective assessment of the temperature distribution. Therefore, MOD11C3 LST data, which are highly correlated with air temperature, were used as the primary data for the air temperature inversion (Zhao et al, 2020). After considering previous studies and the typical conditions that characterize the geographical location, terrain, and environment of mountainous areas, the longitude, latitude, altitude, slope, pressure, humidity, wind speed, and NDVI were selected to construct a spatial downscaling regression model of air temperature.…”

Section: Construction Of Temperature Downscaling Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-temporal pattern and attribution analysis of the mass elevation effect in the Tianshan Mountains in China

Zhang,

Liu

et al. 2023

J. Geogr. Sci.

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The mass elevation effect (MEE) is a thermal effect, in which heating produced by long wave radiation on a mountain surface generates atmospheric uplift, which has a profound impact on the hydrothermal conditions and natural geographical processes in mountainous areas. Based on multi-source remote sensing data and field observations, a spatial downscaling inversion of temperature in the Tianshan Mountains in China was conducted, and the MEE was estimated and a spatio-temporal analysis was conducted. The GeoDetector model (GDM) and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model were applied to explore the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the study area. Four key results can be obtained. (1) The temperature pattern is complex and diverse, and the overall temperature presented a pattern of high in the south and east, but low in the north and west. There were clear zonal features of temperature that were negatively correlated with altitude, and the temperature difference between the internal and external areas of the mountains. (2) The warming effect of mountains was prominent, and the temperature at the same altitude increased in steps from west to east and north to south. Geomorphological units, such as large valleys and intermontane basins, weakened the latitudinal zonality and altitudinal dependence of temperature at the same altitude, with the warming effect of mountains in the southern Tianshan Mountains. (3) The dominant factors affecting the overall pattern of the MEE were topography and location, among which the difference between the internal and external areas of the mountains, and the absolute elevation played a prominent role. The interaction between factors had a greater influence on the spatial differentiation of mountain effects than single factors, and there was a strong interaction between terrain and climate, precipitation,

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“…lyzing glacier changes using remote-sensing data and estimating the changes in volume, as well as assessing their contribution to river runoff [43]. Through the an of Sentinel-1A/1B data and the SRTM DEM in the Manas River basin of the Tia Mountains, it has been observed that the glaciers in this basin are also experiencing loss [44].…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Shen et al [42] employed this method to calculate the mass balance of the Tarim River basin glaciers from 1957 to 2000. Another method for calculating GMB is by analyzing glacier changes using remote-sensing data and estimating the changes in glacier volume, as well as assessing their contribution to river runoff [43]. Through the analysis of Sentinel-1A/1B data and the SRTM DEM in the Manas River basin of the Tianshan Mountains, it has been observed that the glaciers in this basin are also experiencing mass loss [44].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Glacier Mass Balance on River Runoff in the Typical Alpine Basin

Yang,

Du,

et al. 2023

Water

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Quantifying the effects of alpine GMB (Glacier Mass Balance) on river runoff is an important content of climate change. Uncertainty exists in GMB monitoring when applying remote-sensing technology. There are several reasons for these uncertainties, such as terrain deviation co-registration among different topographic data, the mismatch between GSE (Glacier Surface Elevation) from satellite monitoring and the GMB that comprises the physical glacier properties, the driving factors of GMB, and the response patterns of the runoff within the basin. This paper proposed a method based on the ridge line co-registration of DEMs (Digital Elevation Models), and the Tailan River basin, which is a typical glacier melt runoff recharge basin located in the southern Tianshan Mountains, was selected. Abnormal values in GSE changes were removed using ice thickness data, and the GSE results were optimized based on the regularity of the GSE change with altitude to estimate the GMB. The driving factors of the GMB and the response characteristics of the runoff in the basin were also explored. The results showed that the accuracy of the optimized GSE results across different periods has improved by more than 25%. The mean annual thinning value of GSE in the basin from 2000 to 2022 was −0.25 ± 0.02 m·a−1, corresponding to a GMB value of −0.30 ± 0.02 m w.e.a−1, indicating a consistent GMB loss state. Combined with climate data, the glaciers in the basin were impacted by rising temperatures, and the smallest increase in annual precipitation in the basin was insufficient to compensate for the GMB loss. Moreover, in the past 22 years, glacier meltwater accounts for 46.15% of the total runoff in the Tailan River basin.

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Simulation and construction of the glacier mass balance in the Manas River Basin, Tianshan, China from 2000 to 2016

Cited by 8 publications

References 28 publications

Simulation of the Potential Distribution of the Glacier Based on Maximum Entropy Model in the Tianshan Mountains, China

Simulation of the Potential Distribution of the Glacier Based on Maximum Entropy Model in the Tianshan Mountains, China

Spatio-temporal pattern and attribution analysis of the mass elevation effect in the Tianshan Mountains in China

The Influence of Glacier Mass Balance on River Runoff in the Typical Alpine Basin

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