Simulation and Assessment of Future Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Poiqu River Basin, Central Himalayas

Zhang, Taigang; Wang, Weicai; Gao, Tanguang; An, Baosheng

doi:10.3390/w13101376

Cited by 19 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…For example, a 2019 study identified 8 lakes as potentially dangerous 21 ; another 2019 study identified 7 potentially dangerous lakes with transboundary threats along the China-Nepal border 16 ; a 2020 study identified twenty glacial lakes as very highly or highly hazardous 19 . Furthermore, any one of several lakes in the valley, even if they emit a flood at the lowest considered discharge, could cause immense damage in China and across the border into Nepal 24 , as we report in this study.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 50%

“…We note that geomorphological evidence shows a long history of GLOFs in the Zhangzangbo valley 24 (a part of the Poiqu/Bhotekoshi basin), some of which have caused a severe impact 12 . Taraco Lake, a moraine-dammed lake located in the Tajilingpu valley, had an outburst in August 1935 where livestock and 66,000 m 2 of agricultural fields were destroyed 20 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…The Cirenmaco lake, located in the Zhangzangbo valley, witnessed three major GLOFs in 1964, 1981, and 1983 25 . Of the three events, the 1981 flood was the most catastrophic that killed over 200 people, destroyed the Friendship Bridge, and severely affected the Sunkoshi Hydropower station in Nepal 24 – 26 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Transition of a small Himalayan glacier lake outburst flood to a giant transborder flood and debris flow

Sattar

Haritashya

Kargel

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a great concern for the Himalaya, as they can severely damage downstream populations and infrastructures. These floods originate at high altitudes and can flow down with enormous energy and change the terrain’s existing morphology. One such devastating event occurred on the night of 5 July 2016, from the inconspicuous Gongbatongsha Lake, located in the Poiqu basin, Eastern Himalaya. The Poiqu basin in the Tibetan Autonomous Region currently contains numerous big glacial lakes; however, this event originated from a small lake. The GLOF was triggered following heavy precipitation that led to a slope failure above the lake and deposition of debris into the lake, which breached the moraine dam and rapidly drained the entire lake. The flood damaged several downstream infrastructures, including the Arniko highway, the Upper Bhotekoshi hydropower plant, and several buildings as it made its way into the Bhotekoshi basin in Nepal. This study adopts a multi-model approach to reconstruct the GLOF trigger and the flood’s transformation into a severe debris flow. Proxies including flow discharge, flow velocity, runout distances were used to calibrate the model and validate the results. Results reveal that a debris flow of volume ranging between 3000 and 6000 m3 from the headwall must have led to lake overfill, eventually leading to the GLOF event. The GLOF showed a significant increase in peak discharge from 618 to 4123 m3 s−1 at the Zhangzangbo-Bhotekoshi confluence. The average velocity of the flow is calculated to be ~ 5.5 m s−1. Reconstruction of the erosion and deposition dynamics show that maximum erosion occurred in the first 6.5 km, with maximum deposition occurring near the Upper Bhotekoshi hydropower station. The modeling indicates that the availability of the entrainable debris along the channel, likely from the previous landslides, amplified the event by three orders of magnitude-additional water ingested from the river. Overall, we demonstrate how the small-scale Gongbatongsha GLOF amplified downstream by incorporating pre-existing sediment in the valley and triggered damaging secondary landslides leading to an economic loss of > 70 million USD.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 50%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 90%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Transition of a small Himalayan glacier lake outburst flood to a giant transborder flood and debris flow

Sattar

Haritashya

Kargel

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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show abstract

“…Every natural phenomenon has its own unique process of formation, occurrence, development, and extinction [15]. For example, floods tend to form quickly and can be formed in a few days or even hours [35]. Hurricanes form relatively faster, probably within hours, minutes, or seconds [36].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Regional Spatiotemporal Variations in Drought from the Perspective of Soil Moisture in Guangxi, China

Shao

2022

Water

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Understanding the changes in regional droughts is important for promoting overall sustainable development. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil droughts in Guangxi under the background of global warming and regional vegetation restoration have not been studied extensively, and the potential causes are scarcely understood. Here, using TerraClimate soil moisture data, we constructed a monthly standardized soil moisture index (SSMI), analyzed the seasonal and annual spatiotemporal distribution of droughts from the perspective of soil moisture, and studied past soil drought events in Guangxi. Migration methods of drought centroid, trend analysis, and principal component decomposition were used. In the interannual dynamics, the overall SSMI increased, indicating that the soil drought situation was gradually alleviated in Guangxi. Further, the frequency of extreme and severe droughts decreased with time, mainly in autumn and winter. During early drought stages, the migration path was short, which extended as the droughts progressed. Ocean temperature and soil moisture were strongly correlated, indicating that abnormal ocean surface temperature may drive soil moisture. This study provides scientific guidance for the early warning, prevention, and mitigation of losses associated with soil droughts in Guangxi and serves as valuable reference for understanding the impacts of large-scale climate anomalies on soil moisture.

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“…Importantly, with the gradual increase of glacial melting and the water level of moraine lakes, flood events caused by glacial lake ruptures have occurred frequently in recent years (Liu et al, 2014;Riaz et al, 2014). More and more works have documented the chain disaster events induced by changes in glaciers and glacial lakes (Yang et al, 2011b;Cook et al, 2018;Shangguan et al, 2021;Zhang et al, 2021). Obviously, understanding the response relationship between temperature changes to glaciers and glacial lakes and its impact on glacial debris flow activity will provide some guidance for monitoring and providing early warnings on glacial debris flows and preventing risk in the region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The evolution of glacial lake and glaciers and their potential impact on glacial debris flow activity in the Palong Zangbu catchment in Southeastern Tibet

Yang,

Chuan,

Lingfeng

et al. 2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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Due to warm and humid air currents of the Indian Ocean and the southwest monsoon, the Palong Zangbo catchment in southeastern Tibet has developed oceanic glaciers in the valley, and the activity of glacial debris flows has been gradually intensified under neotectonic activity, frequent earthquakes, climate change, and extreme rainfall. In this paper, the topographic and morphological data of the debris flow basin, the dynamic evolution characteristics of glaciers and glacial lakes were analyzed by using multisource long-term series of remote sensing images. Simultaneously, the distribution of moraines and landslide sources were extracted based on satellite image. In addition, climate change in the study area was analysed using temperature and rainfall data from the last 40 years, revealing that the average temperature in the study area from May to October presented a fluctuating tendency as a whole, especially after 2013, when the temperature gradually increased. As these temperature changes led to continuous melting of the glaciers in the study area, the glacier area decreased from 8,300 km2 in 1988–4,584 km2 in 2019, which decreased nearly 45%. However, the number and area of glacial lakes in the study area gradually increased under a power-law trend, which further led to a significant increase on the possibility of glacial lake rupture in the study area. Due to the joint effects of earthquakes, glacier melting and glacial lake collapse, the debris flows in the study area were well developed, and a total of 122 debris flows were found with varying channel lengths, areas and material sources. Importantly, the characteristics of the glaciers, glacial lakes and climate change in the study area have indicated that the glaciers have retreated, the number of glacial lakes has increased, and the risk of debris flow in this basin will increase in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen monitoring and early warnings on floods due to glacial lake collapses and debris flows in the study area to improve the risk management of debris flows and floods and the prevention and mitigation of disasters.

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Simulation and Assessment of Future Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Poiqu River Basin, Central Himalayas

Cited by 19 publications

References 62 publications

Transition of a small Himalayan glacier lake outburst flood to a giant transborder flood and debris flow

Transition of a small Himalayan glacier lake outburst flood to a giant transborder flood and debris flow

Assessment of Regional Spatiotemporal Variations in Drought from the Perspective of Soil Moisture in Guangxi, China

The evolution of glacial lake and glaciers and their potential impact on glacial debris flow activity in the Palong Zangbu catchment in Southeastern Tibet

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