Simulation and analysis of infrastructure interdependencies using a Petri net simulator in a geographical information system

Ge, Yong; Xing, Xitao; Cheng, Qiuming

doi:10.1016/j.jag.2010.05.003

Cited by 12 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Macro-scale economic cascading simulation models, such as the Adaptive Regional Input-Output (ARIO) model (Watson et al, 2017) and the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model (Shan et al, 2020), were proposed to demonstrate the linear and nonlinear input-output relationships and assess the economic consequences of disastrous events. Different from these macroscale economic cascading simulation models, the Geo-PN model has the advantage of simulating the dynamics of network transition forms at different aggregated scales to capture their economic cascading effect as well as their spatial trajectories behind the seafood supply-chain linkages (Ge et al, 2010;Koks et al, 2016). It means that the Geo-PN model is more flexible in delineating the microscale of the cascading effect behind the intricate linkages among sectors in the global seafood system, and the spatial trajectory of the cascading effect from one sector to another in the Geo-PN model can be simulated near real-time.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Geo-PN simulation. The Geo-Petri Net model, proposed by Ge et al (Ge et al, 2010), was applied in this study to capture the cascading effect within the global seafood network after a financial crisis or COVID-19 pandemic. A Geo-PN is a five-tuple as follows:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We firstly optimized a Geographical Petrinet (Geo-PN) (Ge, Xing and Cheng, 2010) model to construct the cascading relationships of the global seafood supply chain across 21 regions based on the FAO's seafood trade classification (Supplement Fig. S1a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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After the pandemic: the global seafood trade market forecasts in 2030

Wei,

Zhang,

Chen

et al. 2023

Humanit Soc Sci Commun

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The COVID-19 lockdowns have transitioned to a new normal and triggered commodity supply disruption and trade uncertainty, yet little is known about the seafood trade resilience of developing and developed countries amid pandemic-related shocks. Here, employing a newly developed geographical transition-net model, we simulate a set of idealized lockdown scenarios in a real-world seafood network. The results show that (1) even if restrictions from regions with high strictness policies were eventually lifted globally at the end of 2022, the pandemic-induced disruption will continue to affect global seafood trade until 2030, and the annual growth rate of the global seafood market would be around 1% lower than that during 2006–2019; (2) Due to the continued high level of stringency in China in 2022 and the soaring demand of seafood in the developed countries in the post-COVID-19 era, developed countries are increasingly reliant on their intra-regional trade until 2030; (3) The global seafood supply chains will magnify export losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19, and there would be 17 to 57 million people in the developing countries in 2030 facing seafood supply shortage. The new long-term challenge is to call for the multilateral cooperation of major exporters for global seafood trade recovery. Our study provides a new perspective to evaluate the economic impact of COVID-19 as well as the cascading effect caused by the supply-chain linkages in the global seafood system.

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