Simulating Urban Growth in a Developing Nation’s Region Using a Cellular Automata-Based Model

Leão, Simone; Bishop, Ian D.; Evans, David W.

doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9488(2004)130:3(145)

Cited by 89 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…In order to obtain a better understanding of urban growth and its effects and to develop better planning and management programs, urban growth modeling has often been considered (Leao et al 2004). Large-scale urban growth models began to be used in the early 1960s, but they mostly failed around one decade later.…”

Section: Population Growth Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is estimated that around 60% of the population of the world will be living in cities by 2020 (Balasubramanianand Choi 2010). The rapid growth of the world's cities has put pressure on land and other resources (Leao et al 2004). According to the Population and Habitat Program (2000),every year population growth adds about 78 million people to the world, while 27 million tons of topsoil islost.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Planning and management modeling for treated wastewater usage

Ahmadi

Merkley

2009

Irrig Drainage Syst

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Two computational models, including several calculation and analysis submodels, were developed to create a tool for assessing the impact of different treated wastewater reuse options on irrigated agriculture. The models consider various aspects of treated wastewater availability (past, present, and future), wastewater quality, agricultural water demand, and the economics of conveying wastewater from treatment plants to farms. The two models were implemented using Visual BASIC.NET in a GIS environment to facilitate visualization of some of the features of an area under study, and to provide a convenient interface for user application. One of the models is for treated wastewater availability calculations, and the other is for wastewater reuse.The water availability model has sub-models including urban population predictions, agricultural land use changes, residential water demand, agricultural water demand (evapotranspiration) for over 40 crop types, and treated wastewater analysis.The water reuse model is composed of three sub-models, including soil water and salt iii balance calculations, nutrient calculations, and pumping and conveyance costs calculations. The nutrient calculationssub-model is based on an existing model, but was completely rewritten and modified in some parts to accommodate the needs and features of the water reuse model presented herein.A sample application of the models is presented for Cache Valley, Utah. The results show a comparison of treated wastewater reuse schemes for the study area, highlighting how irrigated agriculture would best benefit from the total or partial use of treated wastewater. Two wastewater reuse scenarios were considered. The water availability model shows good agreement with other sources of information in terms of population forecast and calculation of future residential and agricultural water demand.However, according to the results from the model, the rate of increase of the urban area was much higher than the rate of decrease of the agricultural areas between the years 1992 and 2001.The future population growth and water demand increases for urban areas was calculated and validated for Logan City. Also, in the case studythe model was shown to be a good tool for wastewater influent analysis for Logan City. Both of the models were successfully developed, tested, and validated (for a case study in Utah) as part of this research.

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Section: Population Growth Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Planning and management modeling for treated wastewater usage

Ahmadi

Merkley

2009

Irrig Drainage Syst

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“…The first is to adjust one or more of the five parameters (Leao et al, 2004;Rafiee et al, 2009). The second is to modify the growth-resistance levels in excluded layers (Jantz et al, 2010) or apply distinct excluded layers (Akın et al, 2014).…”

Section: Model Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

Song¹,

Fu²,

Gu³

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Coastal regions become unprecedentedly vulnerable to coastal hazards that are associated with sea level rise. The purpose of this paper is therefore to simulate prospective urban exposure to changing sea levels. This article first applied the cellular-automaton-based SLEUTH model (Project Gigalopolis, 2016) to calibrate historical urban dynamics in Bay County, Florida (USA) -a region that is greatly threatened by rising sea levels. This paper estimated five urban growth parameters by multiple-calibration procedures that used different Monte Carlo iterations to account for modeling uncertainties. It then employed the calibrated model to predict three scenarios of urban growth up to 2080 -historical trend, urban sprawl, and compact development. We also assessed land use impacts of four policies: no regulations; flood mitigation plans based on the whole study region and on those areas that are prone to experience growth; and the protection of conservational lands. This study lastly overlaid projected urban areas in 2030 and 2080 with 500-year flooding maps that were developed under 0, 0.2, and 0.9 m sea level rise. The calibration results that a substantial number of built-up regions extend from established coastal settlements. The predictions suggest that total flooded area of new urbanized regions in 2080 would be more than 25 times that under the flood mitigation policy, if the urbanization progresses with few policy interventions. The joint model generates new knowledge in the domain between land use modeling and sea level rise. It contributes to coastal spatial planning by helping develop hazard mitigation schemes and can be employed in other international communities that face combined pressure of urban growth and climate change.

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“…Negative consequences that include various degrees of landscape ecological corridor breakdown and aggravated urban pollution have attracted increasing attention throughout society (Botequilha Leitão and Ahern 2002). To achieve sustainable and healthy urban development, researchers have used numerous tools, including cellular automata (Torrens and O'Sullivan 2001;He et al 2013;Leao et al 2004) and neural-network models (Xia and Gar-On 2002), in predictive and simulative studies of urban layouts. Although such discussions include land-use, economy and employment relationships, they lack quantitative simulations of urban landscape ecology and cannot be used to evaluate the ecological sustainability of a complex, diverse and dynamic urban system (Anas et al 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Ecological Risk among Different Urban Patterns Based on System Dynamics Modeling of Urban Development

Kang

2017

J. Urban Plann. Dev.

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Abstract:In this study an urban development model has been developed based on system dynamics, in order to compare four urban layout patterns, in terms of their effects on landscape ecology risk and environmental pollution. The four patterns are: centralised urban model, green corridor urban model, decentralised urban model (satellite city model) and resource-based city model. Landscape ecology risk assessments based on simulation results show that: the decentralised urban model is superior to the centralised urban model in terms of long-term landscape ecological development and environmental protection. In the meantime, the relationships between the patch spacing and evaluation index have been revealed.

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Simulating Urban Growth in a Developing Nation’s Region Using a Cellular Automata-Based Model

Cited by 89 publications

References 23 publications

Planning and management modeling for treated wastewater usage

Planning and management modeling for treated wastewater usage

An examination of land use impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise

Comparison of Ecological Risk among Different Urban Patterns Based on System Dynamics Modeling of Urban Development

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