Simulating the Spread of an Invasive Termite in an Urban Environment Using a Stochastic Individual-Based Model

Abstract

Invasive termites are destructive insect pests that cause billions of dollars in property damage every year. Termite species can be transported overseas by maritime vessels. However, only if the climatic conditions are suitable will the introduced species flourish. Models predicting the areas of infestation following initial introduction of an invasive species could help regulatory agencies develop successful early detection, quarantine, or eradication efforts. At present, no model has been developed to estimate the geographic spread of a termite infestation from a set of surveyed locations. In the current study, we used actual field data as a starting point, and relevant information on termite species to develop a spatially-explicit stochastic individual-based simulation to predict areas potentially infested by an invasive termite, Nasutitermes corniger (Motschulsky), in Dania Beach, FL. The Monte Carlo technique is used to assess outcome uncertainty. A set of model realizations describing potential areas of infestation were considered in a sensitivity analysis, which showed that the model results had greatest sensitivity to number of alates released from nest, alate survival, maximum pheromone attraction distance between heterosexual pairs, and mean flight distance. Results showed that the areas predicted as infested in all simulation runs of a baseline model cover the spatial extent of all locations recently discovered. The model presented in this study could be applied to any invasive termite species after proper calibration of parameters. The simulation herein can be used by regulatory authorities to define most probable quarantine and survey zones.

The relative importance of sexual and asexual reproduction in the spread of Spartina alterniflora using a spatially explicit individual‐based model

“…However, some of these models have neglected the effects of life history traits (Grevstad 2005;Huang et al 2008), landscape heterogeneity and changes Grevstad 2005;Buhle et al 2012;Geetal.2013)and tideland elevation Buhle et al 2012). Spatially explicit individual-based models account for not only the life history of the target species, but also its dispersal progress and abiotic factors such as landscape heterogeneity and changes, which are widely used in population dynamics simulations (Lo´pez-Alfaro et al 2012;Tonini et al 2013;Cohen et al 2014). Remote sensing (RS) and Geography Information System (GIS) are important tools that reveal the changing vegetation patterns associated with broad-scale plant invasions (Civille et al 2005;Z h a n ge ta l .2011).…”

Potential economic costs of invasive structural pests: conehead termites,Nasutitermes corniger, in Florida

“…The simulation of termite colony spread developed by Tonini et al (2013) shows a rapid increase in the area affected during the first two years of the invasion, followed by continued growth in the size of this area, but at a much slower rate (Figure 1). In 2015, after a full year of allowing the termite invasion to run its course, the simulation shows colonies expanding, but only in the cells that are immediately adjacent to the initial termite colonies.…”

Proliferation of the Invasive TermiteCoptotermes gestroi(Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) on Grand Cayman and Overall Termite Diversity on the Cayman Islands

“…The individual-based model by Tonini et al (2013) was used to simulate the spread of C. gestroi over Grand Cayman from 2014 to 2050. The values used in the model for the main ecological parameters (Tonini et al 2013) are shown in Table 1.…”

“…The individual-based model by Tonini et al (2013) was used to simulate the spread of C. gestroi over Grand Cayman from 2014 to 2050. The values used in the model for the main ecological parameters (Tonini et al 2013) are shown in Table 1. Because of the stochastic nature of the model used, 100 replications were run to account for the uncertainty associated with the outcome of a stochastic simulation.…”

“…Considering the large gaps between observed termite points in the western half of the island and the availability of boat dockage in various portions of that cluster makes it, however, unlikely that the termite infestation started from only 1 single point within this cluster and then dispersed from there. If that was the case, one could expect a more even coverage of infestation points in the affected areas without the large observed gaps in-between (Tonini et al 2013).…”