Simulating the Impact of Crime on African American Women's Physical Activity and Obesity

Abstract

Objective The objective of this study was to quantify the impact of crime on physical activity location accessibility, leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and obesity among African-American women. Methods We developed an agent-based model, in 2016, representing resource-limited Washington, DC communities and their populations to simulate the impact of crime on LTPA and obesity among African-American women under different circumstances. Results Data analysis conducted between 2016 and 2017 found that in the baseline scenario, African-American women have a 25% probability of exercising. Reducing crime so more physical activity locations are accessible (increasing from 10% to 50%) decreases the annual rise in obesity prevalence by 2.69%. Increasing the probability of African-American women to exercise to 37.5%, further increases the impact of reducing crime on obesity (2.91% annual decrease in obesity prevalence). Conclusions Our simulations show that crime may serve as a barrier to LTPA. Reducing crime and increasing propensity to exercise through multilevel interventions (i.e. economic development initiatives to increase time available for physical activity and subsidized health care) may promote greater than linear declines in obesity prevalence. Crime prevention strategies alone can help prevent obesity, but combining such efforts with other ways to encourage physical activity can yield even greater benefits.

A systematic review of system dynamics and agent‐based obesity models: Evaluating obesity as part of the global syndemic

“…Several models (n = 7) also included interactions between individuals and their immediate food and physical activity environments , all using agent‐based modeling.…”

“…They tested the impact of SSB warning labels on obesity prevalence and SSB consumption while varying literacy and retailer compliance rates. Focusing on physical activity environments, Powell‐Wiley et al examined the relationship between varying physical activity location accessibility due to crime—based on real geographic data of Washington, DC—on physical activity levels and obesity prevalence among African American women. Aziza et al presented a proof‐of‐concept model also focused solely on the physical activity environment that represented both children and activities available to them in the community as different types of agents, where children achieve moderate‐to‐vigorous activity by engaging with activities based on factors specific to themselves (eg, age, gender, and motivation to perform physical activity) and characteristics of the activity.…”

“…The PRISM model included particulate air pollution endogenously and pollution control regulations exogenously. The Virtual Population Obesity Prevention Lab implicitly incorporated weather as an exogenous factor influencing an agent's baseline probability to exercise.…”

Níveis de atividade física e fatores associados entre professores de medicina

“…É importante destacar que as várias formas de deslocamento de uma população dependem de vários fatores e não só por escolhas individuais, incluindo a acessibilidade, qualidade do transporte público e ambiente favorável para a mobilidade urbana 18 . Assim, outro possível fator para a baixa participação nas atividades de deslocamento pode ser atribuído ao aumento dos níveis de violência, que faz com que cada vez mais as pessoas procurem meios de transporte mais seguros para efetuar seus deslo camentos 19 .…”

Highlights From the American Heart Association's EPI|LIFESTYLE 2018 Scientific Sessions

“…Dr Tiffany Powell‐Wiley studied the impact of crime on physical activity patterns and rate of obesity in African American women, using simulation modeling of neighborhood‐level data 5. The results indicated that women living in high‐crime areas had a 25% probability of exercising; however, areas with lower crime rates perpetuated higher physical activity among this group.…”