Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in a Typical River Catchment of the Loess Plateau, China

Abstract

Global warming will have direct impacts on regional water resources by accelerating the hydrological cycle. Hydrological simulation is an important approach to studying climate change impacts. In this paper, a snowmelt-based water balance model (SWBM) was used to simulate the effect of climate change on runoff in the Kuye River catchment of the Loess Plateau, China. Results indicated that the SWBM is suitable for simulating monthly discharge into arid catchments. The response of runoff in the Kuye River catchment to climate change is nonlinear, and runoff is more sensitive to changes in precipitation than to changes in temperature. The projections indicated that the Kuye River catchment would undergo more flooding in the 2020s, and global warming would probably shorten the main flood season in the catchment, with greater discharge occurring in August. Although projected changes in annual runoff are uncertain, the possibilities of regional water shortages and regional flooding are essential issues that need to be fully considered.

Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China

“…The hydrological impacts of climate change have been investigated in many regions of China, such as the Hanjiang basin (Chen et al, 2007;Guo et al, 2009), the catchment of the Loess Plateau (Wang et al, 2013), the Qingjiang River basin (Chen et al, 2012), the Qiantang River basin (Y. P. , the Songhuajiang River basin (Su et al, 2015), the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau (F. , the Pearl River basin (Yan et al, 2015), the Xin River basin (Zhang et al, 2016), the subcatchments of the Yangtze and Yellow River basins (Xu et al, 2011), the Huang-Huai-Hai region (Lu et al, 2012), and 10 major river basins in China . There is a large uncertainty involved in these impact studies, which results in a large difference in climate projections.…”

“…There is a great deal of previous work exploring the impact of climate variations on R, with the motivation stemming from the region's vast resources (Christensen et al, 2004;Guo et al, 2009;Piao et al, 2010;Chen et al, 2012;Harding et al, 2012;Wang et al, 2012; Y. P. , dangers of flooding (Kay et al, 2006, Kay and Jones, 2012Raff et al, 2009;Liu et al, 2013;Xiao et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2013;Smith et al, 2014;Wu et al, 2014, and agricultural water uses (Vano et al, 2010). The most common practices in these previous studies are to use the hydrological models driven by the output from global climate models (GCMs) to simulate the hydrological process (e.g.…”

Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China

“…The impacts of climate change on water resources have been investigated in many regions of China, such as the Hanjiang 10 basin (Chen et al, 2007;Guo et al, 2009), the catchment of the Loess Plateau (Wang et al, 2013), the Qingjiang River basin (Chen et al, 2012), the Qiantang River basin (Xu et al, 2013b), the Songhuajiang River basin (Su et al, 2015), the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (Li et al, 2013b), the Pearl River basin (Yan et al, 2015), the Xin River basin (Zhang et al, 2016), the sub-catchments of the Yangtze and Yellow River basins (Xu et al, 2011), the Huang-Huai-Hai region (Lu et al, 2012), and ten major river basins in China . There is a large uncertainty involved in these impact studies,…”

“…There is a great deal of previous work exploring the impact of climate variations on R, with the motivation stemming from the region's vast resources (Christensen et al, 2004;Guo et al, 2009, Piao et al, 2010Chen et 10 al., 2012;Harding et al, 2012;Xu et al, 2013b), dangers of flooding (Kay et al, 2006(Kay et al, , 2009(Kay et al, , 2012Raff et al, 2009;Xiao et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2013;Smith et al, 2014;Wu et al, 2014, and agricultural water uses (Vano et al, 2010). The most common practices in these previous studies are to use the hydrological models driven by the output from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to simulate the hydrological process (e.g., R) under future climate change scenarios.…”

The trend of climate and runoff changes in the Ba river basin

“…Hậu quả của biến đổi khí hậu đối với Việt Nam là nghiêm trọng và là một nguy cơ hiện hữu cho mục tiêu xoá đói giảm nghèo, cho việc thực hiện các mục tiêu thiên niên kỷ và sự phát triển bền vững của đất nước. Xu thế biến động khí hậu và dòng chảy đã được nghiên cứu ở một số lưu vực [4,5], bài báo này trình bày kết quả nghiên cứu cho đối tượng là lưu vực sông vùng nhiệt đới gió mùa.Lưu vực sông Ba là lưu vực lớn nhất vùng Nam Trung bộ, nằm trong địa giới của 4 tỉnh: Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Đắk Lắk và Phú Yên, với diện tích lưu vực 13.900km 2 . Bắt nguồn từ vùng núi Ngọc Rô tại độ cao 1.200m, đổ ra biển tại cửa Đà Rằng với chiều dài sông khoảng 388km.…”