Simulating the hydrological impacts of climate change in the upper North Saskatchewan River basin, Alberta, Canada

Kienzle, S. W.; Nemeth, Michael W.; Byrne, J. M.; Macdonald, Ryan

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.01.058

Cited by 68 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Differences between simulated and observed variances were below 10% for Watershed 1 and below 4% for Watershed 2, indicating a realistic simulation of peak and low flows. Verification of the model was essential to be able to confidently use the model in the assessment of a range of future climate conditions (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099) and their impacts on the hydrological regime in the Cline River watershed (Kienzle et al 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ACRU model has been applied for water resource assessments (Everson 2001, Kienzle et al 1997, Schulze et al 2004, Martinez et al 2008 and climate change impacts (New and Schulze 1996, New 2002, Schulze et al 2004, Forbes et al 2010, Kienzle et al 2011, and often requires extensive GIS preprocessing (Kienzle 1993, 1996. The conceptual structure of ACRU is shown in Fig.…”

Section: The Acru Agro-hydrological Modelling Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Once Watershed 1 was satisfactorily simulated in terms of water yields, seasonality, and general shape of the hydrographs, streamflow for the whole 1961-1990 time period was simulated and compared against observed streamflows. The entire time period was used in order to provide a simulated 30-year baseline period to be used for subsequent climate change analysis, as described in Kienzle et al (2011). After the ACRU set-up for Watershed 1 was considered complete, Watershed 2 was simulated and calibrated in a similar fashion.…”

Section: Streamflowmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Another key reason for choosing the ACRU agro-hydrological modelling system for this study was that it was the only complex model with access to the entire code, enabling the research team to develop new routines required for this study, such as those described by Kienzle (2008Kienzle ( , 2010 and Kienzle et al (2011). This paper presents the parameterization and verification of simulated against observed hydrological variables for the baseline period , while a follow-up paper (Kienzle et al 2011) describes the simulation of a range of future climate conditions (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) and their impacts on the hydrological regime in the Cline River watershed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This paper presents the parameterization and verification of simulated against observed hydrological variables for the baseline period , while a follow-up paper (Kienzle et al 2011) describes the simulation of a range of future climate conditions (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) and their impacts on the hydrological regime in the Cline River watershed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-variable verification of hydrological processes in the upper North Saskatchewan River basin, Alberta, Canada

Nemeth¹,

Kienzle

Byrne

2012

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The ACRU agro-hydrological modelling system was set up to simulate the impacts of climate change on the hydrological responses of the 3856-km 2 Cline River watershed, the major headwater of the upper North Saskatchewan River basin in central Alberta, Canada. The physical-conceptual ACRU model was set up to simulate all elements of the hydrological cycle on a daily time step for the 1961-1990 baseline period, to serve as the basis for later climate change impact simulations. After parameterization, the output from the ACRU model was verified against temperature, snow water equivalent, glacier mass balance, potential evapotranspiration, and two sets of long-term daily streamflow records. The multi-variable verification analyses were implemented to instil confidence that the simulated streamflow time series is based on a realistic combination of bio-physical parameters and represents the watershed behaviour in terms of annual water yields, seasonality, shape and magnitude of the hydrographs, and streamflow variability.Key words hydrological simulation model; streamflow; snow; glacier; verification; ACRU model; Canada Vérification multi-variable des processus hydrologiques dans le bassin supérieur de la rivière North Saskatchewan, Alberta, Canada Résumé Le système de modélisation agro-hydrologique ACRU a été mis en place pour simuler les impacts des changements climatiques sur les réponses hydrologiques du bassin versant de la Rivière Cline (3856 km 2 ), source majeure du bassin supérieur de la rivière North Saskatchewan dans le centre de l'Alberta, au Canada. Le modèle physique-conceptuel ACRU a été mis en place pour simuler tous les éléments du cycle hydrologique au pas de temps journalier pour la période de référence 1961-1990, pour servir de base à des simulations ultérieures des impacts des changements climatiques. Après le paramétrage, les sorties du modèle ACRU ont été vérifiées sur la température, l'équivalent en eau de la neige, le bilan de masse des glaciers, l'évapotranspiration potentielle, et deux enregistrements de long terme de débits quotidiens. Les analyses de vérification multi-variables ont été mises en oeuvre pour s'assurer que la série des débits simulés est basée sur une combinaison réaliste de paramètres biophysiques et représente le comportement du bassin versants en termes d'écoulement annuel, de saisonnalité, de forme et d'ampleur des hydrogrammes et de variabilité du débit.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Acru Agro-hydrological Modelling Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Streamflowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-variable verification of hydrological processes in the upper North Saskatchewan River basin, Alberta, Canada

Nemeth¹,

Kienzle

Byrne

2012

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The responses of hydrological processes and sediment yield to land-use and climate change in the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

Khôi

Suetsugi

2012

Hydrol. Process.

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Abstract:In this study, we investigated the responses of hydrology and sediment yield with impacts of land-use and climate change scenarios in the Be River Catchment, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a powerful tool for simulating the impact of environmental change on hydrology and sediment yield in this catchment. The hydrologic and sediment yield responses to land-use and climate changes were simulated based on the calibrated model. The results indicated that a 16.3% decrease in forest land is likely to increase streamflow (0.2 to 0.4%), sediment load (1.8 to 3.0%), and surface runoff (SURQ) (4.8 to 10.7%) and to decrease groundwater discharge (GW_Q) (3.5 to 7.9%). Climate change in the catchment leads to decreases in streamflow (0.7 to 6.9%) and GW_Q (3.0 to 8.4%), increase in evapotranspiration (0.5 to 2.9%), and changes in SURQ (À5.3 to 2.3%) and sediment load (À5.3 to 4.4%). The combined impacts of land-use and climate changes decrease streamflow (2.0 to 3.9%) and GW_Q (12.3 to 14.0%), increase evapotranspiration (0.7 to 2.8%), SURQ (8.2 to 12.4%), and sediment load (2.0 to 7.9%). In general, the separate impacts of climate and land-use changes on streamflow, sediment load, and water balance components are offset each other. However, SURQ and some component of subsurface flow are more sensitive to land-use change than to climate change. Furthermore, the results emphasized water scarcity during the dry season and increased soil erosion during the wet season.

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Glacio‐hydrological model calibration and evaluation

et al. 2020

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Glaciers are essential for downstream water resources. Hydrological modeling is necessary for a better understanding and for future projections of the water resources in these rapidly changing systems, but modeling glacierized catchments is especially challenging. Here we review a wealth of glacio-hydrological modeling studies (145 publications) in catchments around the world. Major model challenges include a high uncertainty in the input data, mainly precipitation, due to scarce observations. Consequently, the risk of wrongly compensating input with model errors in competing snow and ice accumulation and melt process parameterization is particularly high. Modelers have used a range of calibration and validation approaches to address this issue. The review revealed that while a large part ($35%) of the reviewed studies used only streamflow data to evaluate model performances, most studies ($50%) have used additional data related to snow and glaciers to constrain model parameters. These data were employed in a variety of calibration strategies, including stepwise and multi-signal calibration. Although the primary aim of glaciohydrological modeling studies is to assess future climate change impacts, longterm changes have rarely been taken into account in model performance evaluations. Overall, a more precise description of which data are used how for model evaluation would facilitate the interpretation of the simulation results and their uncertainty, which in turn would support water resources management. Moreover, there is a need for systematic analyses of calibration approaches to disentangle what works best and why. Addressing this need will improve our system understanding and model simulations of glacierized catchments.

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Simulating the hydrological impacts of climate change in the upper North Saskatchewan River basin, Alberta, Canada

Cited by 68 publications

References 54 publications

Multi-variable verification of hydrological processes in the upper North Saskatchewan River basin, Alberta, Canada

Multi-variable verification of hydrological processes in the upper North Saskatchewan River basin, Alberta, Canada

The responses of hydrological processes and sediment yield to land-use and climate change in the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

Glacio‐hydrological model calibration and evaluation

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