Simulating the effects of climate variability on waterbodies and wetland‐dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

McIntyre, Nancy E.; Liu, G.; Gorzo, Jessica M.; Wright, Christopher K.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Schwartz, Franklin W.

doi:10.1002/ecs2.2711

Cited by 17 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…2016, McIntyre et al. 2019) and are in contrast to other studies that have suggested a large, southeastern shift in viable waterfowl habitat in the PPR (Johnson et al. 2005, Johnson and Poiani 2016).…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 65%

“…Additionally, multiple wetland monitoring efforts have been sustained for over three decades and enabled the development of different modeling tools and approaches to assess how climate change could impact wetlands and waterbirds in the PPR (Johnson and Poiani 2016, McIntyre et al. 2019, McKenna et al. 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The disproportionate importance of the PPR for a large number of species and the vulnerability of prairiepothole wetlands to climate and land-use change has led to tens of millions of dollars being spent annually in the PPR to fund habitat-management programs aimed at the conservation of waterbird species (Mattsson et al 2020). Additionally, multiple wetland monitoring efforts have been sustained for over three decades and enabled the development of different modeling tools and approaches to assess how climate change could impact wetlands and waterbirds in the PPR (Johnson and Poiani 2016, McIntyre et al 2019, McKenna et al 2019. Despite past efforts to forecast the future impact that climate change may have on prairie-pothole wetlands, the conservation and management community has identified the need for more robust and relevant climate/wetland projections (Rushing et al 2020) using climate-modeling best practices (Sofaer et al 2017) for managing this ecosystem of continental and global importance (Yocum and Ray 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Limited shifts in the distribution of migratory bird breeding habitat density in response to future changes in climate

McKenna

Mushet

Kucia

et al. 2021

Ecological Applications

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Grasslands, and the depressional wetlands that exist throughout them, are endangered ecosystems that face both climate and land‐use change pressures. Tens of millions of dollars are invested annually to manage the existing fragments of these ecosystems to serve as critical breeding habitat for migratory birds. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) contains millions of depressional wetlands that produce between 50% and 80% of the continent’s waterfowl population. Previous modeling efforts suggested that climate change would result in a shift of suitable waterfowl breeding habitat from the central to the southeast portion of the PPR, an area where over half of the depressional wetlands have been drained. The implications of these projections suggest a massive investment in wetland restoration in the southeastern PPR would be needed to sustain waterfowl populations at harvestable levels. We revisited these modeled results indicating how future climate may impact the distribution of waterfowl‐breeding habitat using up‐to‐date climate model projections and a newly developed model for simulating prairie‐pothole wetland hydrology. We also presented changes to the number of “May ponds,” a metric used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to estimate waterfowl breeding populations and establish harvest regulations. Based on the output of 32 climate models and two emission scenarios, we found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds would shift in the future. However, our results projected a 12% decrease to 1% increase in May pond numbers when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21st century (2070–2099). When combined, our results suggest areas in the PPR that currently support the highest densities of intact wetland basins, and thus support the largest numbers of breeding‐duck pairs, will likely also be the places most critical to maintaining continental waterfowl populations in an uncertain future.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 65%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Limited shifts in the distribution of migratory bird breeding habitat density in response to future changes in climate

McKenna

Mushet

Kucia

et al. 2021

Ecological Applications

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“…This effect can be seen in Figure 8, where the wetland area remains very elevated across years of varied climate in the drained scenario as compared to the undrained scenarios. Extreme precipitation events are projected to increase under climate change in the PPR [83], and our findings suggest these larger events can have multi-decadal hydrological impacts that are greatly magnified when extensive consolidation exists on the landscape.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

Synergistic Interaction of Climate and Land-Use Drivers Alter the Function of North American, Prairie-Pothole Wetlands

et al. 2019

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Prairie-pothole wetlands provide the critical habitat necessary for supporting North American migratory waterfowl populations. However, climate and land-use change threaten the sustainability of these wetland ecosystems. Very few experiments and analyses have been designed to investigate the relative impacts of climate and land-use change drivers, as well as the antagonistic or synergistic interactions among these drivers on ecosystem processes. Prairie-pothole wetland water budgets are highly dependent on atmospheric inputs and especially surface runoff, which makes them especially susceptible to changes in climate and land use. Here, we present the history of prairie-pothole climate and land-use change research and address the following research questions: 1) What are the relative effects of climate and land-use change on the sustainability of prairie-pothole wetlands? and 2) Do the effects of climate and land-use change interact differently under different climatic conditions? To address these research questions, we modeled 25 wetland basins and measured the response of the lowest wetland in the watershed to wetland drainage and climate variability. We found that during an extremely wet period (1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000) wetland drainage decreased the time at which the lowest wetland reached its spill point by four years, resulting in 10 times the amount of water spilling out of the watershed towards local stream networks. By quantifying the relative effects of both climate and land-use drivers on wetland ecosystems our findings can help managers cope with uncertainties about flooding risks and provide insight into how to manage wetlands to restore functionality.Sustainability 2019, 11, 6581 2 of 20 and biological (e.g., vegetation and aquatic macroinvertebrate communities) variables of interest in areas where vulnerable wetlands that have been well documented as a "disappearing ecosystem" [4].The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) covers approximately 777,000 km 2 of the North American midcontinent (Figure 1). Over half of the historical wetlands in the PPR have been drained, and conversion of upland areas to crops has altered wetland functioning and the ecosystem services provided by wetlands [5]. Millions of small, glacially derived wetlands that provide critical habitat for migratory waterfowl [5] and other wetland-dependent species [6,7] occur in the PPR, making it a continentally significant region for biodiversity [8]. The wetlands of the PPR also provide additional ecosystem services such as floodwater storage, sediment reduction, water-quality improvement [9], and carbon sequestration [10]. The need to tease apart the complexity caused by interactions between climate and land-use change drivers and how they affect biodiversity, in general, has been recently established as a pressing research priority for ecosystem scientists and land managers [2]. Understanding the relative impacts of climate and land-use change on wetland hydrology is critical for developing land-management strategies...

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“…Projected climate-model means under moderate increases in emissions from Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 project precipitation for the Northern Great Plains region could increase by as much as 10% or decrease by as much as 5% from historical levels (USGRCP 2017). The potential impact of future climate change on prairie-pothole wetlands ranges between wetlands being much drier (Johnson et al 2010) or moderately wetter (McIntyre et al 2019) in the future. Upland management practices may help maintain ponded water important to breeding waterbirds.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Upland burning and grazing as strategies to offset climate-change effects on wetlands

McKenna

Renton

Mushet

et al. 2021

Wetlands Ecol Manage

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Wetland ecosystems perform a multitude of services valued by society and provide critical habitat for migratory birds and other wildlife. Despite their importance, wetlands have been lost to different local, regional, and global drivers. Remaining wetlands are extremely sensitive to changing temperature and precipitation regimes. Management of grassland areas in wetland catchments may be an effective strategy for counteracting potentially negative impacts of climate change on wetlands. Our objective was to estimate the effects of climate changes on wetland hydrology, and to explore strategies for increasing surface-water inputs to wetlands. We coupled a field study with process-based simulation modeling of wetland-water levels. We found that climate change could decrease the number of wetlands that hold ponded water during the waterfowl breeding season by 14% under a hot wet scenario or 29% under a hot dry scenario if no upland-management actions were taken. Upland burning reduced pond losses to 9% (hot wet) and 26% (hot dry). Upland grazing resulted in the smallest loss of ponded wetlands, 6% loss under the hot-and-wet scenario and 22% loss under the hot-and-dry scenario. Overall, water inputs could be increased by either burning or grazing of upland vegetation thereby reducing pond losses during the waterfowl breeding season. While field results suggest that both grazing and burning can reduce the vegetative structure that could lead to increases in runoff in grassland catchments, our model simulations indicated that additional actions may be needed for managers to minimize future meteorologically driven water losses.

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Simulating the effects of climate variability on waterbodies and wetland‐dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

Cited by 17 publications

References 69 publications

Limited shifts in the distribution of migratory bird breeding habitat density in response to future changes in climate

Limited shifts in the distribution of migratory bird breeding habitat density in response to future changes in climate

Synergistic Interaction of Climate and Land-Use Drivers Alter the Function of North American, Prairie-Pothole Wetlands

Upland burning and grazing as strategies to offset climate-change effects on wetlands

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