Simulating the effects of climate change on the carbon balance of North American high‐latitude forests

Keyser, Alisa R.; Kimball, J. S.; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Running, Steven W.

doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2000.06020.x

Cited by 159 publications

(142 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Although the meteorological years used in this study did not substantially deviate from the long-term average Ohta et al, 2008;Hirata et al, 2007), this initialization might lead to some biases in the simulation. Since the historical changes in the climate affect the carbon and water cycles through various indirect feedbacks, such as changes in the pool size (Keyser et al, 2000;Ueyama et al, 2009), the use of short-term meteorology might ignore these effects and lead to simulations that were more indicative of the steady state condition compared with the actual carbon and water cycles. The underestimation of the annual carbon sink by the model simulation (Fig.…”

Section: Further Model Improvements and Potential Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Detected and/or potential effects include: (1) the earlier onset of photosynthetic activity in high-latitude forests due to the spring warming (Myneni et al, 2001;Kimball et al, 2004) leads to greater productivity and thus potentially increases the carbon sink (e.g. Keyser et al, 2000;Euskirchen et al, 2006;Welp et al, 2007); (2) the warming climate potentially stimulates the decomposition of soil carbon (Valentini et al, 2000;Piao et al, 2007;Ueyama et al, 2009) and reduces the carbon sink; and (3) atmospheric drying over the regions of warming could affect the carbon and water cycles of boreal forests since the carbon and water fluxes of boreal forests in Eurasia are highly sensitive to changes in atmospheric humidity (e.g. Schulze et al, 1999;Wang et al, 2005;Ohta et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulating carbon and water cycles of larch forests in East Asia by the BIOME-BGC model with AsiaFlux data

et al. 2010

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Abstract. Larch forests are widely distributed across many cool-temperate and boreal regions, and they are expected to play an important role in global carbon and water cycles. Model parameterizations for larch forests still contain large uncertainties owing to a lack of validation. In this study, a process-based terrestrial biosphere model, BIOME-BGC, was tested for larch forests at six AsiaFlux sites and used to identify important environmental factors that affect the carbon and water cycles at both temporal and spatial scales.The model simulation performed with the default deciduous conifer parameters produced results that had large differences from the observed net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RE), and evapotranspiration (ET). Therefore, we adjusted several model parameters in order to reproduce the observed rates of carbon and water cycle processes. This model calibration, performed using the AsiaFlux data, substantially improved the model performance. The simulated annual GPP, RE, NEE, and ET from the calibrated model were highly consistent with observed values.The observed and simulated GPP and RE across the six sites were positively correlated with the annual mean air temCorrespondence to: M. Ueyama (miyabi-flux@muh.biglobe.ne.jp) perature and annual total precipitation. On the other hand, the simulated carbon budget was partly explained by the stand disturbance history in addition to the climate. The sensitivity study indicated that spring warming enhanced the carbon sink, whereas summer warming decreased it across the larch forests. The summer radiation was the most important factor that controlled the carbon fluxes in the temperate site, but the VPD and water conditions were the limiting factors in the boreal sites. One model parameter, the allocation ratio of carbon between belowground and aboveground, was site-specific, and it was negatively correlated with the annual climate of annual mean air temperature and total precipitation. Although this study substantially improved the model performance, the uncertainties that remained in terms of the sensitivity to water conditions should be examined in ongoing and long-term observations.

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Section: Further Model Improvements and Potential Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating carbon and water cycles of larch forests in East Asia by the BIOME-BGC model with AsiaFlux data

et al. 2010

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“…Historical data indicate that between 1950 and 2000 annual surface temperatures in Interior Alaska have warmed by approximately 2 • C (Keyser et al, 2000); however, during this period no clear trend in growing season precipitation has occurred (Keyser et al, 2000;Serreze et al, 2000). Warmer temperatures will increase evaporation and evapotranspiration; and therefore, peatlands are projected to experience drier conditions in the future (Wrona et al, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wetland succession in a permafrost collapse: interactions between fire and thermokarst

et al. 2008

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Abstract.To determine the influence of fire and thermokarst in a boreal landscape, we investigated peat cores within and adjacent to a permafrost collapse feature on the Tanana River Floodplain of Interior Alaska. Radioisotope dating, diatom assemblages, plant macrofossils, charcoal fragments, and carbon and nitrogen content of the peat profile indicate ∼600 years of vegetation succession with a transition from a terrestrial forest to a sedge-dominated wetland over 100 years ago, and to a Sphagnum-dominated peatland in approximately 1970. The shift from sedge to Sphagnum, and a decrease in the detrended tree-ring width index of black spruce trees adjacent to the collapse coincided with an increase in the growing season temperature record from Fairbanks. This concurrent wetland succession and reduced growth of black spruce trees indicates a step-wise ecosystem-level response to a change in regional climate. In 2001, fire was observed coincident with permafrost collapse and resulted in lateral expansion of the peatland. These observations and the peat profile suggest that future warming and/or increased fire disturbance could promote permafrost degradation, peatland expansion, and increase carbon storage across this landscape; however, the development of drought conditions could reduce the success of both black spruce and Sphagnum, and potentially decrease the long-term ecosystem carbon storage.

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“…Marked changes in climate are expected to have a significant impact upon boreal forest ecosystems (Chapin et al 1992, Keyser et al 2000. The relationship between climatic factors and forest regeneration, however, is poorly understood (doted lines, Fig.…”

Section: Final Considerations For Implementing Regeneration In Borealmentioning

confidence: 99%

Guidelines for modeling natural regeneration in boreal forests

Blanco¹,

Welham²,

Kimmins³

et al. 2009

The Forestry Chronicle

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Natural regeneration is recognized as an important component of forest management. Field studies are usually combined with conceptual and mathematical models as the most effective way to understand and predict natural regeneration. In the case of the boreal forest, several important issues arise in the design of regeneration models and are reviewed here. The most important concerns the trade-off between complexity and portability. Complex models may mimic natural systems more closely than do simpler models, but this realism comes at a cost in terms of the volume of data necessary for their calibration. A second issue is that most regeneration models have been scaled to problems at the tree and stand level, but recent interest in landscape-level issues requires models applicable to this higher spatial scale. Finally, the conceptual framework underlying most regeneration models may need to be revisited in light of recent efforts to depict vegetation dynamics under changing climatic regimes. It is unlikely that any single modeling approach will prove adequate for modeling natural regeneration under all conditions, and we provided guidelines as to how to create effective regeneration models.Key words: climate change, disturbance, ecological models, forest regeneration, seedlings RÉSUMÉLa régénération naturelle est reconnue comme étant un élément important de l'aménagement forestier. Les études sur le terrain sont habituellement combinées à des modèles conceptuels et mathématiques pour constituer la manière la plus efficace de comprendre et de prédire la régénération naturelle. Dans le cas de la forêt boréale, plusieurs points cruciaux surgissent lors de la conception des modèles de régénération et font l' objet d'une révision ci-après. Le plus important porte sur l' équilibre entre la complexité et la transférabilité. Les modèles complexes peuvent reproduire les systèmes naturels plus fidèlement que ne le pourraient des systèmes plus simples, mais ce réalisme est dispendieux compte tenu du volume de données nécessaire à la calibration. Un deuxième point tient au fait que la plupart des modèles de régénération ont été élaborés pour identifier les problèmes au niveau de l'arbre et du peuplement, mais l'intérêt récent porté aux enjeux à l' échelle de l' écosystème requiert des modèles utilisables à cette plus grande échelle. Finalement, le cadre conceptuel sousjacent à la plupart des modèles pourrait requérir une révision à la lumière des récents efforts de représentation de la dynamique des végétaux en fonction de la modification des régimes climatiques. Il est peu vraisemblable qu'une seule approche de modélisation s'avèrera adéquate pour modéliser la régénération forestière sous toutes les conditions possibles et nous élaborons des lignes directrices indiquant comment créer des modèles effectifs de régénération.

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Simulating the effects of climate change on the carbon balance of North American high‐latitude forests

Cited by 159 publications

References 40 publications

Simulating carbon and water cycles of larch forests in East Asia by the BIOME-BGC model with AsiaFlux data

Simulating carbon and water cycles of larch forests in East Asia by the BIOME-BGC model with AsiaFlux data

Wetland succession in a permafrost collapse: interactions between fire and thermokarst

Guidelines for modeling natural regeneration in boreal forests

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