Simulating the effect of tillage practices with the global
ecosystem model LPJmL (version 5.0-tillage)

Lutz, Femke; Herzfeld, Tobias; Heinke, Jens; Rolinski, Susanne; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Bloh, Werner von; Stoorvogel, J.J.; Müller, Christoph

doi:10.5194/gmd-2018-255

Cited by 10 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…In the TBMs used here, the effect of tillage is either represented as a scaling factor increasing the SOC decomposition rate in ORCHIDEE‐MICT (Gervois et al, 2008) or ignored in other models. A newer version of LPJmL now incorporates two processes directly affected by tillage, including surface litter reduction from tillage management and decreased bulk soil density affecting soil hydrology (Lutz et al, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite developments in some models to incorporate agricultural management practices (Ciais et al, 2011; Ito & Inatomi, 2012; Lutz et al, 2019; Pugh et al, 2015; Tian et al, 2010; Wu et al, 2016), some limitations still remain for projection of SOC relative to this driver in our set of ISIMIP model. Carbon storage in cropland is heavily dependent on management practices.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reducing Uncertainties of Future Global Soil Carbon Responses to Climate and Land Use Change With Emergent Constraints

Chang

Ciais

et al. 2020

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

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Soil organic carbon changes (ΔSOC) are regulated by climate and land use change. Here, we analyze regional and global ΔSOC from 1861 to 2099 based on five terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2b. The TBMs were driven by harmonized gridded land use change and bias-adjusted climate forcing data from different general circulation models (GCMs) for climate scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0. Between 2005 and the end of this century, we estimated an increase of SOC for two scenarios with large uncertainty, which is dominated by differences between TBMs. We present a new emergent constraint approach to constrain future modeled ΔSOC over natural vegetation from RCP 6.0 simulations using recent observed trends of net primary productivity as a proxy of litter inputs to soil pools. Our results showed that the uncertainties in constrained ΔSOC can be reduced in comparison with the original model ensemble, but constrained values of ΔSOC depend on the choice of a GCM and climate regions. For the reduction of the SOC density in areas where cropland expanded (Δsoc cropland expansion) over natural vegetation as a result of land use change, the constrained Δsoc cropland expansion still features large uncertainties due to uncertain observed data. Our proposed emergent constraint approach appears to be valuable to reduce uncertainty on SOC projections, but it is limited here by the small number of models (five) and by the uncertainty in the observational data. Applications to larger ensembles from Earth System Models should be tested for the future.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing Uncertainties of Future Global Soil Carbon Responses to Climate and Land Use Change With Emergent Constraints

Chang

Ciais

et al. 2020

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

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“…2.1 The LPJmL5.0-tillage2 model The LPJmL5.0-tillage2 model combines the dynamic phenology scheme of the natural vegetation (Forkel et al, 2014), with version 5.0-tillage, which covers the terrestrial nitrogen cycle , and the representation of tillage practices and residue management (Lutz et al, 2019a). The model code is available at: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4625868 (Herzfeld et al, 2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The incorporation of aboveground residues into the soil is dependent on the chosen management practices. Different tillage and residue management schemes, as well as the accounting for direct effects of SOC on soil hydraulic properties and thus on soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition and plant productivity, have been introduced in the implementation of tillage practices in version 5.0-tillage (Lutz et al, 2019a) and are thus explicitly considered here (Fig. 1).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The mixing efficiency for tillage management is set to 0.9, representing a full inversion tillage practice, also known as conventional tillage (White et al, 2010). The effects of both mixing and tillage efficiency are described in detail in Lutz et al (2019a). The fraction of residues harvested in the case of residue extraction is 70 % of all aboveground residues (with the remaining 30 % of aboveground residues and all roots left on the field).…”

Section: Model Inputsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Soil organic carbon dynamics from agricultural management practices under climate change

Herzfeld¹,

Heinke²,

Rolinski³

et al. 2021

Earth Syst. Dynam.

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Abstract. Sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) on cropland has been proposed as a climate change mitigation strategy to reduce global greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, which in particular is needed to achieve the targets proposed in the Paris Agreement to limit the increase in atmospheric temperature to well below 2 ∘C. We analyze the historical evolution and future development of cropland SOC using the global process-based biophysical model LPJmL, which was recently extended by a detailed representation of tillage practices and residue management (version 5.0-tillage2). We find that model results for historical global estimates for SOC stocks are at the upper end of available literature, with ∼2650 Pg C of SOC stored globally in the year 2018, ∼170 Pg C of which is stored in cropland soils. In future projections, assuming no further changes in current cropland patterns and under four different management assumptions with two different climate forcings, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, results suggest that agricultural SOC stocks decline in all scenarios, as the decomposition of SOC outweighs the increase in carbon inputs into the soil from altered management practices. Different climate change scenarios, as well as assumptions on tillage management, play a minor role in explaining differences in SOC stocks. The choice of tillage practice explains between 0.2 % and 1.3 % of total cropland SOC stock change in the year 2100. Future dynamics in cropland SOC are most strongly controlled by residue management: whether residues are left on the field or harvested. We find that on current cropland, global cropland SOC stocks decline until the end of the century by only 1.0 % to 1.4 % if residue retention management systems are generally applied and by 26.7 % to 27.3 % in the case of residue harvest. For different climatic regions, increases in cropland SOC can only be found for tropical dry, warm temperate moist, and warm temperate dry regions in management systems that retain residues.

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Economically Efficient and Environmentally Sustainable Irrigation Potentials: a Spatially Explicit Global Assessment

Beier

Bodirsky

Heinke

et al. 2022

Preprint

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To satisfy increasing global agricultural demand, the expansion of irrigation is an important intensification measure. At the same time, unsustainable water abstractions and cropland expansion pose a threat to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Irrigation potentials are influenced by local biophysical irrigation water availability and competition of different water users. Because water abstractions for various human uses along the river divert the river flow, it is also important to consider competing water uses when estimating irrigation potentials. Using a novel river routing routine that considers economic criteria of water allocation via a productivity ranking of grid cells and both land and water sustainability criteria, we estimate global irrigation potentials at a halfdegree spatial resolution. We show that there are considerable potentials to expand irrigation without harming the environment, but not necessarily at the places where irrigation is taking place today. In terms of potentially irrigated areas on current cropland, 711 Mha could be sustainably irrigated when only considering biophysical criteria. Of these, only 254 Mha have a yield value gain of more than 500 USD/ha and would be economically viable to be irrigated. The open-source data processing routine is a valuable aggregation and disaggregation tool for the use of hydrological inputs within land-system models that do not have a highly resolved representation of land use. The potentials can be aggregated to different simulation level units (e.g. basin level or country level) while maintaining biophysical and economic consistency.

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Simulating the effect of tillage practices with the global ecosystem model LPJmL (version 5.0-tillage)

Cited by 10 publications

References 49 publications

Reducing Uncertainties of Future Global Soil Carbon Responses to Climate and Land Use Change With Emergent Constraints

Reducing Uncertainties of Future Global Soil Carbon Responses to Climate and Land Use Change With Emergent Constraints

Soil organic carbon dynamics from agricultural management practices under climate change

Economically Efficient and Environmentally Sustainable Irrigation Potentials: a Spatially Explicit Global Assessment

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