Simulating system‐wide effects of reducing irrigation withdrawals in a disputed river basin

Leitman, S.; Kiker, Gregory A.; Wright, David L.

doi:10.1002/rra.3174

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The graphical and open-source structure of the ACF-STELLA model allows a potentially greater number of users and developers to interact with the model structure to develop novel solutions and potential water management alternatives. This analysis helps to document the development and use of the ACF-STELLA model, which has been employed in multiple projects, including: (1) allocation formula negotiations between the three states and the federal government (Leitman 2005), (2) evaluation of common flow levels needed to support commercial navigation and environmental sustainability (Leitman et al 2012), (3) development of resource conservation-based approach to managing the ACF water resources to update the basin's Water Control Manual (USFWS 2013a, b), and (4) determination of irrigation water-saving practices to influence reservoir elevations and/ or flow in the Apalachicola River (Leitman et al 2015a). The differences in model output among different models can be used to check and verify rules/assumptions to increase confidence in various water management predictions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and comparison of integrated river/reservoir models in the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint basin, USA

Leitman

Kiker

2015

Environ Syst Decis

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This paper describes the development of a stakeholder-derived, water system model for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) basin (ACF-STELLA) and directly compares simulated daily outputs with a more complex model (HEC-ResSim) used by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to formally evaluate alternative basin management options. The two models were compared using 70 years of daily output (1939-2008; n = 25,668) for eight different ACF sites: five flow stations and three reservoir elevations. The comparison between models showed a strong match (p \ 0.01 rejection significance) between the daily outputs for six of the eight sites, with median Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency ranging from 0.732 to 0.979. In the two sites where daily comparisons were less successful, additional analysis was conducted to explore where simulated results diverged. At the Lake Lanier outflow site, a 7-day moving average comparison provided a successful match with a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency of 0.788 (p \ 0.01 rejection significance). At the Walter F. George Lake elevation site, comparisons showed that a primary source of disagreement stemmed from a period where HEC-ResSim model outputs were significantly greater than historically observed reservoir elevations. Given the satisfactory model comparison as well as the significantly increased simulation speeds of ACF-STELLA, it was concluded that the ACF-STELLA model could be a useful tool in water policy planning activities to explore alternative basin management scenarios for expanded simulation by the more complex HEC-ResSim model. The use of multiple models in a river basin should not necessarily be interpreted as competitive, but instead can be seen as part of a collaborative effort to empower all stakeholders to systematically engage with their limited water resources.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and comparison of integrated river/reservoir models in the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint basin, USA

Leitman

Kiker

2015

Environ Syst Decis

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“…These characteristics are shared with other critical habitat estuaries (e.g., Suwannee Sound and Apalachicola Bay both have an average depth of 2 m; Choctawhatchee, Pensacola, and Apalachicola bays are all lagoons). Additionally, the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River basin is part of recurring legal proceedings related to water allocation among the basin states and the potential ecological and economic impacts of water management decisions within the basin (e.g., Leitman et al 2017).…”

Section: Influence Diagram: Identifying Habitat Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, projected increases in river temperature for the southeastern USA (van Vliet et al 2013) may alter migration and spawning cues (Heise et al 2004(Heise et al , 2005Flowers et al 2009). Managers face constraints when trying to mitigate changes in freshwater discharge (e.g., flood control and competing water needs), and these constraints may be severe in drought years, which are expected to increase in the future due to environmental change (Leitman et al 2016(Leitman et al , 2017. During droughts, the conflicting socioeconomic, commercial, and political demands on water resources are amplified.…”

Section: Prioritizing Future Effortsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During droughts, the conflicting socioeconomic, commercial, and political demands on water resources are amplified. For example, within the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River basin, augmentation of upstream reservoir releases to meet ecological flow needs during drought was not plausible, as the water available in the reservoir was insufficient to alleviate drought conditions (Leitman et al 2016), even when losses to agricultural irrigation were reduced (Leitman et al 2017).…”

Section: Prioritizing Future Effortsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Estuarine habitat availability for juveniles is likely influenced by water condition, namely salinity, temperature, and dissolved oxygen (Celikkale et al 2002;Kappenman et al 2009;Niklitschek and Secor 2009;Moberg and DeLucia 2016), which vary both temporally and spatially due to tidal effects, wind, and freshwater river discharge (e.g., Orlando et al 1993;Morey and Dukhovskoy 2012). Changes in freshwater river discharge related to regional precipitation regimes (e.g., Orlando et al 1993;Leitman et al 2016Leitman et al , 2017 may contribute to an observed increase in salinity for some southeastern U.S. estuaries (Alber and Sheldon 1999). There is concern that increased estuarine salinity could constrict critical winter foraging habitat for juvenile Gulf Sturgeon (Kaeser, personal communication), which may contribute to reduced recruitment (e.g., Randall and Sulak 2007).…”

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Identifying Information Gaps in Predicting Winter Foraging Habitat for Juvenile Gulf Sturgeon

et al. 2021

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The Gulf Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi is an anadromous species that inhabits Gulf of Mexico coastal waters from Louisiana to Florida and is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Seasonal cues (e.g., freshwater discharge) determine the timing of spawning and migration and may influence the availability of critical habitat during winter months in six estuaries. Large information gaps, especially related to critical estuarine habitat for juveniles, hinder recovery efforts to protect these habitats and assess risks from emerging threats. Using Apalachicola Bay, Florida, as a model system, we developed and analyzed a preliminary Bayesian network model so that we could identify knowledge gaps (i.e., where expert knowledge was lacking) and data gaps (i.e., where data were unavailable) that limit the ability to assess the quantity of critical estuarine habitat for juvenile Gulf Sturgeon. The model hypothesized habitat availability per winter month in estuarine habitat under alternative scenarios of river discharge and length of the winter foraging season. A search for geospatial data sets revealed that the largest gap involved salinity, temperature, and oxygen (i.e., water condition) monitoring data, with data available only for Apalachicola Bay. For the Apalachicola Bay model, data gaps prevented the development of 53% of water condition geospatial data sets and a sensitivity analysis showed that water condition data most limited the ability to predict habitat availability. Expert knowledge was low, and conditional certainty scores showed that the relationships with the lowest certainty were abiotic suitability and habitat availability. Reducing information gaps could aid the

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Management Options During the 2011–2012 Drought on the Apalachicola River: A Systems Dynamic Model Evaluation

Leitman

Pine

Kiker

2016

Environmental Management

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The Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River basin (ACF) is a large watershed in the southeastern United States. In 2012, the basin experienced the second year of a severe drought and the third multi-year drought in the last 15 years. During severe droughts, low reservoir and river levels can cause economic and ecological impacts to the reservoir, river, and estuarine ecosystems. During drought, augmenting Apalachicola River discharge through upstream reservoir releases and demand management are intuitive and often-suggested solutions to minimizing downstream effects. We assessed whether the existing reservoir system could be operated to minimize drought impacts on downstream water users and ecosystems through flow augmentation. Our analysis finds that in extreme drought such as observed during 2012, increases in water releases from reservoir storage are insufficient to even increase Apalachicola River discharge to levels observed in the 2007 drought. This suggests that there is simply not enough water available in managed storage to offset extreme drought events. Because drought frequency and intensity is predicted to increase under a variety of climate forecasts, our results demonstrate the need for a critical assessment of how water managers will meet increasing water demands in the ACF. Key uncertainties that should be addressed include (1) identifying the factors that led to extremely low Flint River discharge in 2012, and (2) determining how water "saved" via demand management is allocated to storage or passed to downstream ecosystem needs as part of the ongoing revisions to the ACF Water Control Manual by the US Army Corps of Engineers.

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Simulating system‐wide effects of reducing irrigation withdrawals in a disputed river basin

Cited by 7 publications

References 11 publications

Development and comparison of integrated river/reservoir models in the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint basin, USA

Development and comparison of integrated river/reservoir models in the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint basin, USA

Identifying Information Gaps in Predicting Winter Foraging Habitat for Juvenile Gulf Sturgeon

Management Options During the 2011–2012 Drought on the Apalachicola River: A Systems Dynamic Model Evaluation

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