Simulating seasonal tropical cyclone intensities at landfall along the South China coast

Lok, Charlie C. F.; Chan, Johnny C. L.

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3762-2

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…As seen from Figure c, the maximum updraft speed is significantly stronger for the Weak_Heavy cases than for the Weak_Normal events. Lok and Chan () used the regional climate model to simulate the TC landfall over Guangdong and Hainan provinces; they also pointed out that the strong upper‐level divergence over the South China Sea accompanied by the strong subtropical high is favorable for TC development.…”

Section: Rainfall Distribution Of Tcs With Weak Intensitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, the rainfall shows a varied preference pattern depending on the extent to which the TC interacts with the midlatitude system (Deng & Ritchie, ). Lok and Chan () suggested that the strength and extent of the WNPSH are crucial to simulating TC landfalls in Guangdong and Hainan provinces in China based on their analysis of a regional climate model outputs. For a landfalling TC, on the one hand, it will be weakened a lot not only by the underlying frictional surface but also by the dry air intrusion.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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How Do Weak Tropical Cyclones Produce Heavy Rainfall When Making Landfall Over China

Feng

Shu

2018

JGR Atmospheres

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In this study, we investigate rainfall characteristics, such as rainfall intensity, rainfall coverage, and the location of heavy rain, associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall over China during 2005-2014, using the observations of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and environmental fields. Results show that before landfall, the stronger the TC itself is, the stronger the TC rainfall intensity is in both eyewall and inner rainband regions. However, there is no obvious difference in rainfall intensity in the outer core region for the TCs with different intensity. The coverage of heavy rainfall is also found to be correlated with increasing TC intensity before landfall. It is found that the weak TC with heavy rainfall is usually under strong westward vertical wind shear (VWS), resulting from the impact of enhanced upper-level easterlies associated with a significant northward-shifted South Asia high. In particular, when the TC is located under the right-hand side of the entrance of the upper-level easterly jet, the updraft over the downshear side of the TC circulation is further enhanced under the combined influence of VWS and anomalous upper-tropospheric divergence caused by the jet. The precipitation thus manifests a clear asymmetric feature with severe rainfall over the downshear sector of the weak TC. Our results suggest that the interaction between a weak TC and synoptic systems deserves as much attention as that between a strong TC and surrounding systems in landfalling TC forecasting and research.

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Section: Rainfall Distribution Of Tcs With Weak Intensitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Do Weak Tropical Cyclones Produce Heavy Rainfall When Making Landfall Over China

Feng

Shu

2018

JGR Atmospheres

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“…These forecasts are produced using a range of techniques, including statistical methods (e.g., Chan et al ; ; Fan and Wang, ; Choi et al ), dynamical models (Vitart and Stockdale, ; Vecchi et al ; Camp et al ; Manganello et al ) and “hybrid” statistical–dynamical models (e.g., Kim et al ; ; Li et al ; Zhan and Wang, ; Choi et al ; Zhang et al ). Seasonal forecasts of TC landfall risk have also been developed for East Asia (Goh and Chan, ; Huang and Chan, ; Zhang et al ; , Lok and Chan, ) and for specific regions including Taiwan (Lu et al ; Choi et al ), Korea and Japan (Goh and Chan, ), China (Liu and Chan, ; Goh and Chan, ; Sun and Ahn, ), Vietnam (Duong et al ; Tan et al ), the South China Sea (Lok and Chan, ) and the East China Sea (Kim et al ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The western Pacific subtropical high and tropical cyclone landfall: Seasonal forecasts using the Met Office GloSea5 system

Camp

Roberts

Comer

et al. 2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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We investigate the relationship between the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and tropical cyclone (TC) landfall in the ERA-Interim reanalysis and two configurations of the UK Met Office Global Seasonal forecasting system version 5 (GloSea5): Global Atmosphere 3.0 (GA3) and Global Coupled configuration 2 (GC2). Both model configurations have the same horizontal and vertical resolution in the ocean and the atmosphere, but differ in terms of model physics. The WPSH strongly modulates TC activity over the subtropical western North Pacific (WNP) and TC landfall over East Asia (Japan, Korea and East China). Here we show that both model configurations GA3 and GC2 show significant skill for predictions of the WPSH and TC variability over the subtropical WNP, as well as TC frequency along the coast of East Asia, during the boreal summer (June-August). An extension of the analysis to include the full WNP typhoon season (June-November) is also examined; however, only a weak significant relationship between the WPSH index and the observed TC frequency over East Asia is found during this period, and no significant relationship is present in either GloSea5 GA3 or GC2. Results highlight the potential for operational seasonal forecasts of TC landfall risk for Japan, Korea and East China over the June-August period using predictions of the WPSH indices from GloSea5. 1This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

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“…While it is generally accepted that ENSO is not strongly correlated with contemporaneous basin TC counts 8 , a delayed suppression of TC activity in response to strong El Niño events linked to changes in large-scale circulation has been reported 9 . All the current seasonal forecasting models for South China landfall frequency are based on some level of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) predictability [10][11][12][13] . However, none of these forecasts can be issued before the Spring.…”

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confidence: 99%

Pacific subsurface ocean temperature as a long-range predictor of South China tropical cyclone landfall

Sparks

Toumi

2020

Commun Earth Environ

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Seasonal forecasts of the tropical cyclones which frequently make landfall along the densely populated South China coast are highly desirable. Here, we analyse observations of landfalling tropical cyclones in South China and of subsurface ocean temperatures in the Pacific warm pool region, and identify the possibility of forecasts of South China tropical cyclone landfall a year ahead. Specifically, we define a subsurface temperature index, subNiño4, and build a predictive model based on subNiño4 anomalies with a robust double cross-validated forecast skill against climatology of 23%, similar in skill to existing forecasts issued much later in the spring. We suggest that subNiño4 ocean temperatures precede the surface El Niño/Southern Oscillation state by about 12 months, and that the zonal shifts in atmospheric heating then change mid-level winds to steer tropical cyclones towards landfall in South China. We note that regional subsurface ocean temperature anomalies may permit atmospheric predictions in other locations at a longer range than is currently thought possible.

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Simulating seasonal tropical cyclone intensities at landfall along the South China coast

Cited by 11 publications

References 40 publications

How Do Weak Tropical Cyclones Produce Heavy Rainfall When Making Landfall Over China

How Do Weak Tropical Cyclones Produce Heavy Rainfall When Making Landfall Over China

The western Pacific subtropical high and tropical cyclone landfall: Seasonal forecasts using the Met Office GloSea5 system

Pacific subsurface ocean temperature as a long-range predictor of South China tropical cyclone landfall

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