Simulating Regional Vegetation‐climate Dynamics for Middle America: Tropical Versus Temperate Applications

Snell, Rebecca S.; Cowling, Sharon A.; Smith, Benjamin

doi:10.1111/btp.12054

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…To this end, we first classified each stand into one of eight major biomes. The classification mainly followed the biomization scheme by Snell et al 16 . An exception were the tropical needle-leaved forests (TrNE), which are not parameterized as a seperate PFT in LPJ-GUESS.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An exception were the tropical needle-leaved forests (TrNE), which are not parameterized as a seperate PFT in LPJ-GUESS. While in trial runs we tested implementing an additional TrNE class similar to Snell et al 16 , this new PFT showed very little growth, probably due to strong competition with the temperate broadleaved evergreen (TeBE) and C4 grass PFTs. Within the natural forests of Central America the predominant conifers are pines, which co-occur with temperate broadleaves (mostly oaks) and inhabit areas with seasonal drought 81 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have shown how topography can be a major driver in shaping tropical forest communities and their productivity 14 . Due to the lack of high-resolution future climate scenarios and the high computational effort associated with fine scale analyses, however, large-scale studies on vegetation modelling in our study region so far were carried out at coarse spatial resolutions 15 , 16 . In contrast, conservation planning and activities such as the delineation of protected areas, establishment of biological corridors or restoration of degraded landscapes usually occur at regional to local scales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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High economic costs of reduced carbon sinks and declining biome stability in Central American forests

et al. 2023

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Tropical forests represent important supporting pillars for society, supplying global ecosystem services (ES), e.g., as carbon sinks for climate regulation and as crucial habitats for unique biodiversity. However, climate change impacts including implications for the economic value of these services have been rarely explored before. Here, we derive monetary estimates for the effect of climate change on climate regulation and habitat services for the forests of Central America. Our results projected ES declines in 24–62% of the study region with associated economic costs of $51–314 billion/year until 2100. These declines particularly affected montane and dry forests and had strong economic implications for Central America’s lower-middle income countries (losses of up to 335% gross domestic product). In addition, economic losses were mostly higher for habitat services than for climate regulation. This highlights the need to expand the focus from mere maximization of CO2 sequestration and avoid false incentives from carbon markets.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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High economic costs of reduced carbon sinks and declining biome stability in Central American forests

et al. 2023

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“…Most global scale DGVMs are generic and have simple representation of various vegetation types for example tropical areas are typically represented by few PFTs (Snell, Cowling and Smith, 2013). They are optimized to reproduce overall patterns, temporal variability and carbon stocks of vegetation and soil at global scale, but do often not provide reliable estimates at regional scales (Tang et al, 2010).…”

Section: Current Status Of Vegetation Modelling In South Asiamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While some global-scale studies have investigated the potential effect of Chapter 3-Climate change and elevated CO2 favor forest over savanna under different future scenarios in South Asia increasing CO2 on natural vegetation, carbon sequestration and biome boundaries (e.g. Hickler et al, 2006;Sato et al, 2007;Smith et al, 2013), detailed modelling studies focusing explicitly on different biomes in South Asia have not been conducted. The physiological effects of increased CO2 and climate change on South Asian vegetation is uncertain and needs to be addressed in order to improve understanding of regional ecosystem functioning as well as implications for biodiversity conservation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling vegetation-climate interactions in South and Southeast Asia using a trait-based dynamic vegetation model

Kumar¹

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Climate controls the broad-scale distribution of vegetation and change in climate will alter the vegetation distribution, biome boundaries, biodiversity, phenology and supply of ecosystem services. A better understanding of the consequences of climate change is required, particularly in under-investigated regions such as tropical Asia, i.e., South and South-east Asia, which is a host to 7 of the 36 global biodiversity hotspots. Conservation strategies would also require an in-depth understanding of the response of vegetation to climate change. Therefore, the main objective of this thesis was to investigate the impact of climate change and rising CO2 vegetation in tropical Asia. Dynamic global vegetation model (DGVMs) are the well-known tools to investigate vegetation-climate interactions and climate change impacts on ecosystems. In this thesis, I used a complex trait-based DGVM called adaptive dynamic vegetation model version 2 (aDGVM2). In Chapter 1, I presented a brief background of the phytogeography and discussed the exiting knowledge gap on vegetation-climate interactions in the region. One major disadvantage for available DGVMs studies for the tropical Asia is that most of them have used fixed plant functional types (PFTs) and do not explicitly represent the distinct varieties of vegetation type of the region such as Asian savannas. In Chapter 2, I discussed at great length to improve DGVMs for South Asia and discussed ways to include them in the model for better representation of region vegetation-climate interaction. I upgraded the current version of aDGVM2 and added a new vegetation type i.e., C3 grasses, and modified the sub-module to simulate photosynthesis for each individual plants to aDGVM2. In chapter 3, I used this updated version of aDGVM2 to simulate the current and future vegetation distribution in South Asia under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP: representative concentration pathway). The model predicted an increase in biomass, canopy cover, and tree height under the presence of CO2 fertilization, which triggered transitions towards tree-dominated biomes by the end of the 21st century under both RCPs. I found that vegetation along the Western Ghats and the Himalayas are more susceptible to change due to climate change and open biomes such as grassland and savanna are prone to woody encroachment. In Chapter 4, the study domain was extended to include South-east Asia to verify if the model configuration used in Chapter 3 can also simulate vegetation patterns in tropical Asia. The aDGVM2 simulations showed a robust trend of increasing vegetation biomass and transitions from small deciduous vegetation to taller evergreen vegetation across most of tropical Asia. Shifts in plant phenology also affect ecosystem carbon cycles and ecosystem feedback to climate, yet the quantification of such impacts remains challenging. The study showed increased biomass due to CO2 fertilization, indicates that the region can remain a carbon sink given there is no other resource limitation. However, nutrient limitations on CO2 fertilization effects were not included in the study, and carbon sink potential has to be seen with caution. In Chapter 5, I focused on Asian savannas, which have been mismanaged since the colonial era due to misinterpretation as a degraded forest. I proposed a biome classification scheme to distinguish between degraded forest or woodland and savanna based on the abundance of grass biomass and canopy cover. I found that considering vegetation systems as woodland or degraded forest could easily be mistaken as a potential for forest restoration within a tree-centric perspective. This would put approximately 35% to 40% of a unique savanna biome at risk. Although projected woody encroachments may imply a transition toward the forest that benefits climate mitigation. This raises potential conflicts of interest between biodiversity conservation in open ecosystems, i.e., savanna and active afforestation, to enhance carbon sequestration. Proper management strategies should be taken into account to maintain a balance for both objective In conclusion, the model predicted that vegetation in South and South-East Asia would significantly shift towards tree-dominated biomes due to CO2-induced fertilization of C3-photosynthesis. The simulation under fixed CO2 and rising CO2 scenarios clearly showed that rising level of atmospheric CO2 is responsible for most of the predicted change in biome properties. This study is an important step towards understanding ecosystems of South and Southeast Asia, specifically savannas. The aDGVM2 can serve as tools to inform decision making for climate adaptation and mitigation for savanna. The thesis, thus contributes to our ability to improve conservation strategies to mitigate the consequences of climate change.

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Zooming in on coarse plant functional types—simulated response of savanna vegetation composition in response to aridity and grazing

2017

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Simulating Regional Vegetation‐climate Dynamics for Middle America: Tropical Versus Temperate Applications

Cited by 6 publications

References 64 publications

High economic costs of reduced carbon sinks and declining biome stability in Central American forests

High economic costs of reduced carbon sinks and declining biome stability in Central American forests

Modelling vegetation-climate interactions in South and Southeast Asia using a trait-based dynamic vegetation model

Zooming in on coarse plant functional types—simulated response of savanna vegetation composition in response to aridity and grazing

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