Simulating Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Post-Rainy Season Sorghum Yields in India

Abstract

Given the wide use of the multi-climate model mean (MMM) for impact assessment studies, this work examines the fidelity of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the features of Indian summer monsoons as well as the post-rainy seasons for assessing the possible impacts of climate change on post-rainy season sorghum crop yields across India. The MMM simulations captured the spatial patterns and annual cycles of rainfall and surface air temperatures. However, bias was observed in the precipitation amounts and daily rainfall intensity. The trends in the simulations of MMM for both precipitation and temperatures were less satisfactory than the observed climate means. The Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-sorghum model was used to estimate the potential impacts of future climate change on post-rainy season sorghum yield values. On average, post-rainy season sorghum yields are projected to vary between −4% and +40% as well as +10% and +59% in the near future (2040–2069) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, and between +20% and +70% (RCP 4.5) as well as +38% and +89% (RCP 8.5) in the far future (2070–2099). Even though surface air temperatures are increasing in future climate change projections, the findings suggest that an increase in the post-rainy season sorghum yields was due to an increase in the rainfall amounts up to 23% and an increase in the atmospheric CO2 levels by the end of the 21st century. The results suggest that the projected climate change during the post-rainy season over India is an opportunity for smallholders to capitalize on the increase in rainfall amounts and further increase sorghum yields with appropriate crop management strategies.

Crop-climate link in the southeastern USA: A case study on Oats and Sorghum

“…Changing Tmax and Tmin had an overall positive effect on sorghum yield, as evidenced by the improvement in sorghum yield for every 1°C increase in SE-US temperature (Table 6). This was also con rmed by Adejuwon [108] , Boomiraj et al [109] , Msongaleli et al [110] , Bosire [111] , and Chadalavada et al [112] . It is worth noting that, as per Prasad et al [100] , and Sunoj et al [113] regarding sorghum, temperatures greater than 32°C (the cutoff point) begin to negatively affect the RUBISCO mechanism, hampering photosynthesizing performance and, eventually, yield.…”

“…Further examination indicated that the total impact of marginal shift patterns in Tmax and Tmin was bene cial to sorghum yield, which may be inferred statistically as a net 1°C upsurge in overall temperature ameliorated sorghum yield (by 6%). Adejuwon [108] , Msongaleli et al [110] , Bosire [111] , and Chadalavada et al [112] also found similar results in terms of the positive effects of overall temperature-increasing patterns on sorghum. Recently, Mumo et al [120] estimated that yield increases due to temperature changes in the future could reach up to 80.7% in the case of sorghum (2050 to 2070), based on the current rate of temperature warming.…”

Extreme Heat Events over Southeast Europe Based on NEX-GDDP Ensemble: Present Climate Evaluation and Future Projections

“…The primary goal of the NEX-GDDP developers and distributors is to assist the science community in conducting studies of climate change impacts at local to regional scales. Subsequently, it is used for many applications around the globe as an assessment of the Indian summer monsoon [41,59,60] and as general investigations on near-and long-term climate projections over China [61] and Southeast Asia [35]. The overall conclusion is that the NEX-GDDP product offers considerable improvements over CMIP5 GCM hindcasts and projections at regional-to-local scales, with an unchanged global long-term increment [61].…”

“…Nevertheless, we selected suitable metrics to evaluate the NEX-GDDP MME MX50, namely the root mean square error (RMSE) and the index of agreement (IA) [66]. These statistics are applied in several studies evaluating and utilizing the NEX-GDDP dataset [41,59,60,67]. The IA is defined as follows:…”

Strategic, Economic, and Potency Assessment of Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) Development in the Tidal Swamplands of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia

“…Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) is known for its good adaptability to sub-optimal lands due to its tolerance to drought [2], aluminum toxicity [3], and inundation [4,5]. Additionally, sorghum cultivation and seed production techniques are more manageable than those of corn.…”