Simulating Land-Use Changes and Predicting Maize Potential Yields in Northeast China for 2050

Abstract

Crop potential yields in cropland are the essential reflection of the utilization of cropland resources. The changes of the quantity, quality, and spatial distribution of cropland will directly affect the crop potential yields, so it is very crucial to simulate future cropland distribution and predict crop potential yields to ensure the future food security. In the present study, the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model was employed to simulate land-use changes in Northeast China during 2015–2050. Then, the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) model was used to predict maize potential yields in Northeast China in 2050, and the spatio-temporal changes of maize potential yields during 2015–2050 were explored. The results were the following. (1) The woodland and grassland decreased by 5.13 million ha and 1.74 million ha respectively in Northeast China from 2015 to 2050, which were mainly converted into unused land. Most of the dryland was converted to paddy field and built-up land. (2) In 2050, the total maize potential production and average potential yield in Northeast China were 218.09 million tonnes and 6880.59 kg/ha. Thirteen prefecture-level cities had maize potential production of more than 7 million tonnes, and 11 cities had maize potential yields of more than 8000 kg/ha. (3) During 2015–2050, the total maize potential production and average yield decreased by around 23 million tonnes and 700 kg/ha in Northeast China, respectively. (4) The maize potential production increased in 15 cities located in the plain areas over the 35 years. The potential yields increased in only nine cities, which were mainly located in the Sanjiang Plain and the southeastern regions. The results highlight the importance of coping with the future land-use changes actively, maintaining the balance of farmland occupation and compensation, improving the cropland quality, and ensuring food security in Northeast China.

Gaps between Rice Actual and Potential Yields Based on the VPM and GAEZ Models in Heilongjiang Province, China

“…It employs a stepwise correction approach to obtain the crop potential yield under combined effects of light, temperature, precipitation, CO 2 concentration, soil, and terrain when human input and management are at optimal levels [21,22]. The model has gained popularity as a mainstream approach for estimating potential grain yield due to its rigorous methodology, accessibility of fundamental data, and ease of computation [23][24][25][26][27]. Moreover, the applicability of the model in China has been extensively validated, and its relevant parameters have undergone revision [28,29].…”

Research on Fuzzy Evaluation of Land Environmental Security in Three Provinces of Northeast China

“…The irrational development of arable land has resulted in the loss of high-quality land for agriculture, jeopardizing the safety of land assets and nutritional supplies. In addition, problems such as deforestation and overgrazing of forests and grasslands have arisen as a result of the irrational pursuit of economic benefits [12,13]. Drought, land desertification, soil erosion, and other ecological issues are all caused by changes in land usage.…”